Cr Pr 2-4 (3-03) Prospective Plantings National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 31, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Prospective Plantings" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Corn Planted Acreage Virtually Unchanged from 2002 Soybean Acreage Down 1 Percent All Wheat Acreage Up 2 Percent All Cotton Acreage Up 2 Percent Corn growers intend to plant 79.0 million acres of corn for all purposes in 2003, virtually unchanged from 2002 but 4 percent above 2001. Expected acreage is up in the eastern Corn Belt as growers are switching back to corn after planting soybeans last year when persistent wet weather in the spring prevented them from seeding corn. However, all States in the Great Plains, except North Dakota, are decreasing their intended corn plantings as continued drought conditions are expected to persist into the 2003 crop year. Soybean growers intend to plant an estimated 73.2 million acres of soybeans, down 1 percent from last year and, if realized, the lowest planted area since 1998. This is the third consecutive year that soybean acreage has declined in the United States. Growers in most of the Corn Belt and central Great Plains States intend to plant fewer acres in 2003. Expected increases in acreage, offsetting some to the decreases were located in the northern Great Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, Atlantic Coast, and Delta regions. All wheat planted area is expected to total 61.7 million acres in 2003, up 2 percent from 2002. Winter wheat planted area for the 2003 crop is 44.3 million acres, up 6 percent from 2002. Of the total, about 31.9 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 8.2 million acres Soft Red Winter, and 4.2 million acres White Winter. The 2003 other spring wheat planted acreage is estimated at 14.6 million, down 7 percent from last year. Of the total, about 13.8 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Area planted to Durum wheat is intended to total 2.83 million acres, down 3 percent from a year ago. All Cotton plantings for 2003 are expected to total 14.3 million acres, 2 percent above last year. Upland acreage is expected to total 14.1 million acres, a 2 percent increase from 2002. Producers in the Southeast region and Arizona intend to decrease acreage from last year. All other cotton producing States intend to increase planted acreage, except for Oklahoma growers who intend to plant the same acreage as last year. American-Pima cotton growers intend to decrease their plantings to 200,000 acres, down 18 percent from 2002. The decrease is primarily in California, where producers are intending to plant 40,000 acres less than last year. This report was approved on March 31, 2003. Secretary of Agriculture Ann M. Veneman Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Barley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Beans, Dry Edible. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Canola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Corn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Biotechnology Varieties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Biotechnology Varieties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Hay. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Oats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Peanuts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Rice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Sorghum. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Soybeans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Biotechnology Varieties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Sugarbeets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Sunflowers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Sweet potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Tobacco. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Wheat, All . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Durum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Other Spring. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Winter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Corn: Area Planted by State and United States, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 1/ : 2003/2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 Acres ------------- Percent : AL : 180 200 220 110 AZ : 55 60 45 75 AR : 190 270 350 130 CA : 480 545 520 95 CO : 1,220 1,200 1,000 83 CT : 32 32 30 94 DE : 170 180 170 94 FL : 65 75 85 113 GA : 265 340 370 109 ID : 175 190 195 103 IL : 11,000 11,200 11,300 101 IN : 5,800 5,400 5,700 106 IA : 11,700 12,300 12,300 100 KS : 3,450 3,250 3,000 92 KY : 1,200 1,130 1,250 111 LA : 315 580 520 90 ME : 28 29 29 100 MD : 490 510 510 100 MA : 22 22 22 100 MI : 2,200 2,250 2,200 98 MN : 6,800 7,200 7,400 103 MS : 400 550 550 100 MO : 2,700 2,800 2,900 104 MT : 65 65 60 92 NE : 8,100 8,400 8,200 98 NV : 3 4 4 100 NH : 15 16 15 94 NJ : 80 90 80 89 NM : 130 135 130 96 NY : 1,030 1,040 1,050 101 NC : 700 790 810 103 ND : 880 1,230 1,350 110 OH : 3,400 3,200 3,300 103 OK : 250 240 200 83 OR : 45 62 60 97 PA : 1,500 1,450 1,450 100 RI : 2 2 2 100 SC : 260 320 340 106 SD : 3,800 4,400 4,300 98 TN : 680 690 740 107 TX : 1,600 2,050 1,750 85 UT : 60 55 60 109 VT : 90 92 90 98 VA : 470 500 510 102 WA : 115 130 120 92 WV : 50 50 45 90 WI : 3,400 3,650 3,600 99 WY : 90 80 90 113 : US : 75,752 79,054 79,022 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended plantings in 2003 as indicated by reports from farmers. Sorghum: Area Planted by State and United States, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 1/ : 2003/2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 Acres ------------- Percent : AL : 12 10 12 120 AZ : 12 15 17 113 AR : 175 240 230 96 CA : 10 15 10 67 CO : 310 350 350 100 DE : 2 2 1 50 GA : 50 55 45 82 IL : 80 80 90 113 KS : 4,000 3,800 3,700 97 KY : 11 12 14 117 LA : 230 180 240 133 MD : 9 5 6 120 MS : 90 80 85 106 MO : 230 190 230 121 NE : 550 450 650 144 NM : 170 170 150 88 NC : 15 17 15 88 OK : 500 430 350 81 PA : 11 11 13 118 SC : 8 6 9 150 SD : 240 220 290 132 TN : 30 35 35 100 TX : 3,500 3,200 2,900 91 VA : 7 7 9 129 : US : 10,252 9,580 9,451 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended plantings in 2003 as indicated by reports from farmers. Oats: Area Planted and Harvested by State and United States, 2001-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State:-------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 :2003 2/ :2003/2002: 2001 : 2002 :2003 2/ :2003/2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Acres ----- Percent -------- Acres -------- Percent : CA : 260 260 250 96 15 27 25 93 CO : 80 65 100 154 32 8 37 463 GA : 100 90 80 89 35 25 20 80 ID : 130 125 125 100 20 25 30 120 IL : 60 65 60 92 40 50 50 100 IN : 25 20 20 100 16 14 12 86 IA : 240 290 260 90 130 175 170 97 KS : 100 140 150 107 40 60 65 108 ME : 33 30 33 110 31 29 32 110 MI : 70 80 80 100 55 65 65 100 MN : 300 420 300 71 210 285 210 74 MO : 40 65 55 85 20 35 28 80 MT : 130 145 135 93 60 55 60 109 NE : 155 175 190 109 60 55 65 118 NY : 95 70 80 114 80 55 65 118 NC : 60 75 55 73 30 35 25 71 ND : 575 670 580 87 240 290 290 100 OH : 100 70 80 114 85 60 60 100 OK : 55 85 80 94 10 30 25 83 OR : 55 80 75 94 25 35 30 86 PA : 150 140 145 104 115 115 115 100 SC : 50 50 60 120 25 30 30 100 SD : 350 450 480 107 130 100 250 250 TX : 725 750 800 107 160 160 140 88 UT : 60 60 70 117 6 5 10 200 WA : 30 35 35 100 12 10 15 150 WI : 300 430 380 88 195 250 250 100 WY : 75 70 70 100 28 15 30 200 : US : 4,403 5,005 4,828 96 1,905 2,098 2,204 105 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes area planted in preceding fall. 2/ Intended area planted and to be planted and area to be harvested for grain in 2003 as indicated by reports from farmers. Barley: Area Planted by State and United States, 2001-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 2/ : 2003/2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 Acres ------------- Percent : AZ : 42 46 24 52 CA : 160 130 130 100 CO : 90 85 80 94 DE : 29 25 25 100 ID : 700 730 740 101 KS : 9 8 9 113 KY : 9 10 9 90 ME : 27 27 27 100 MD : 55 45 45 100 MI : 21 20 20 100 MN : 160 210 180 86 MT : 1,100 1,200 1,200 100 NE : 5 6 5 83 NV : 4 4 5 125 NJ : 5 4 4 100 NY : 15 11 14 127 NC : 28 31 20 65 ND : 1,500 1,600 2,000 125 OH : 6 6 12 200 OR : 110 80 70 88 PA : 70 70 75 107 SD : 90 80 80 100 UT : 85 70 70 100 VA : 70 75 80 107 WA : 430 350 310 89 WI : 47 60 55 92 WY : 100 90 90 100 : US : 4,967 5,073 5,379 106 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes area planted in preceding fall. 2/ Intended plantings in 2003 as indicated by reports from farmers. All Wheat: Area Planted by State and United States, 2001-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 2/ : 2003/2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 Acres -------------- Percent : AL : 170 150 120 80 AZ : 94 99 119 120 AR : 1,100 960 760 79 CA : 615 625 710 114 CO : 2,397 2,375 2,630 111 DE : 60 60 50 83 FL : 10 9 20 222 GA : 300 350 380 109 ID : 1,280 1,260 1,280 102 IL : 750 680 800 118 IN : 400 350 450 129 IA : 25 20 20 100 KS : 9,800 9,600 10,300 107 KY : 550 550 480 87 LA : 175 230 200 87 MD : 190 195 165 85 MI : 570 500 680 136 MN : 1,867 2,040 1,978 97 MS : 250 250 150 60 MO : 900 900 880 98 MT : 5,360 5,790 5,550 96 NE : 1,750 1,650 1,750 106 NV : 15 13 10 77 NJ : 31 38 31 82 NM : 500 520 500 96 NY : 125 130 125 96 NC : 680 650 530 82 ND : 9,450 9,080 8,930 98 OH : 950 860 1,000 116 OK : 5,600 6,000 6,400 107 OR : 910 950 1,090 115 PA : 170 190 175 92 SC : 220 210 220 105 SD : 3,025 3,030 2,915 96 TN : 500 470 450 96 TX : 5,600 6,400 6,600 103 UT : 160 155 172 111 VA : 200 230 210 91 WA : 2,490 2,420 2,450 101 WV : 12 12 12 100 WI : 178 198 212 107 WY : 168 159 193 121 : US : 59,597 60,358 61,697 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes area planted in preceding fall. 2/ Intended planting for 2003 as indicated by reports from farmers. Winter Wheat: Area Planted by State and United States, 2001-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : 2003/2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 Acres -------------- Percent : AL : 170 150 120 80 AZ : 6 10 4 40 AR : 1,100 960 760 79 CA : 530 530 610 115 CO : 2,350 2,350 2,600 111 DE : 60 60 50 83 FL : 10 9 20 222 GA : 300 350 380 109 ID : 760 730 760 104 IL : 750 680 800 118 IN : 400 350 450 129 IA : 25 20 20 100 KS : 9,800 9,600 10,300 107 KY : 550 550 480 87 LA : 175 230 200 87 MD : 190 195 165 85 MI : 570 500 680 136 MN : 15 35 25 71 MS : 250 250 150 60 MO : 900 900 880 98 MT : 1,300 1,450 1,850 128 NE : 1,750 1,650 1,750 106 NV : 9 6 6 100 NJ : 31 38 31 82 NM : 500 520 500 96 NY : 125 130 125 96 NC : 680 650 530 82 ND : 150 80 130 163 OH : 950 860 1,000 116 OK : 5,600 6,000 6,400 107 OR : 750 800 970 121 PA : 170 190 175 92 SC : 220 210 220 105 SD : 1,300 1,300 1,500 115 TN : 500 470 450 96 TX : 5,600 6,400 6,600 103 UT : 140 140 160 114 VA : 200 230 210 91 WA : 1,850 1,800 1,850 103 WV : 12 12 12 100 WI : 170 190 205 108 WY : 160 150 180 120 : US : 41,078 41,735 44,308 106 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes area planted in preceding fall. Durum Wheat: Area Planted by State and United States, 2001-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 2/ : 2003/2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 Acres -------------- Percent : AZ : 88 89 115 129 CA : 85 95 100 105 MN : 2 5 3 60 MT : 510 590 600 102 ND : 2,200 2,100 2,000 95 SD : 25 30 15 50 : US : 2,910 2,909 2,833 97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes area planted in preceding fall in AZ and CA. 2/ Intended plantings in 2003 as indicated by reports from farmers. Other Spring Wheat: Area Planted by State and United States, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 1/ : 2003/2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 Acres -------------- Percent : CO : 47 25 30 120 ID : 520 530 520 98 MN : 1,850 2,000 1,950 98 MT : 3,550 3,750 3,100 83 NV : 6 7 4 57 ND : 7,100 6,900 6,800 99 OR : 160 150 120 80 SD : 1,700 1,700 1,400 82 UT : 20 15 12 80 WA : 640 620 600 97 WI : 8 8 7 88 WY : 8 9 13 144 : US : 15,609 15,714 14,556 93 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended plantings in 2003 as indicated by reports from farmers. Rice: Area Planted by Class, State, and United States, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Area Planted and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 1/ : 2003/2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 Acres ------------- Percent : Long Grain : AR : 1,480 1,350 1,220 90 CA : 13 7 5 71 LA : 540 530 460 87 MS : 255 255 255 100 MO : 210 190 170 89 TX : 215 205 190 93 : US : 2,713 2,537 2,300 91 : Medium Grain: AR : 150 165 200 121 CA : 435 500 500 100 LA : 8 10 10 100 MO : 1 0 0 TX : 1 1 1 100 : US : 595 676 711 105 : Short Grain : AR : 1 1 2 200 CA : 25 26 25 96 : US : 26 27 27 100 : All : AR : 1,631 1,516 1,422 94 CA : 473 533 530 99 LA : 548 540 470 87 MS : 255 255 255 100 MO : 211 190 170 89 TX : 216 206 191 93 : US : 3,334 3,240 3,038 94 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended plantings in 2003 as indicated by reports from farmers. All Hay: Area Harvested by State and United States, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 1/ : 2003/2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 Acres ------------- Percent : AL : 920 800 820 103 AZ : 258 275 290 105 AR : 1,320 1,375 1,375 100 CA : 1,540 1,640 1,460 89 CO : 1,600 1,350 1,500 111 CT : 63 59 60 102 DE : 17 15 15 100 FL : 270 280 280 100 GA : 650 650 630 97 ID : 1,420 1,570 1,500 96 IL : 800 800 700 88 IN : 610 600 600 100 IA : 1,650 1,600 1,700 106 KS : 3,300 3,250 3,300 102 KY : 2,350 2,400 2,400 100 LA : 450 450 460 102 ME : 130 133 135 102 MD : 225 220 210 95 MA : 98 93 95 102 MI : 1,150 1,150 1,100 96 MN : 2,150 2,300 2,350 102 MS : 780 750 720 96 MO : 4,050 4,260 4,400 103 MT : 2,450 2,600 2,600 100 NE : 3,250 3,250 3,100 95 NV : 495 485 480 99 NH : 57 55 60 109 NJ : 120 115 115 100 NM : 380 380 380 100 NY : 1,660 1,720 1,900 110 NC : 710 750 760 101 ND : 2,700 3,300 2,400 73 OH : 1,520 1,490 1,490 100 OK : 2,550 2,740 2,600 95 OR : 1,025 1,095 1,050 96 PA : 1,650 1,800 1,900 106 RI : 8 7 7 100 SC : 320 330 320 97 SD : 4,700 4,000 4,300 108 TN : 2,135 2,030 1,950 96 TX : 5,230 5,630 5,200 92 UT : 710 710 710 100 VT : 240 240 240 100 VA : 1,310 1,370 1,370 100 WA : 790 810 800 99 WV : 580 570 570 100 WI : 2,000 2,050 2,000 98 WY : 1,130 950 1,150 121 : US : 63,521 64,497 63,552 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended area harvested in 2003 as indicated by reports from farmers. Soybeans: Area Planted by State and United States, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 1/ : 2003/2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 Acres ------------- Percent : AL : 140 170 150 88 AR : 2,900 2,950 2,900 98 DE : 205 190 185 97 FL : 10 10 11 110 GA : 165 160 155 97 IL : 10,700 10,550 10,400 99 IN : 5,600 5,800 5,600 97 IA : 11,000 10,400 10,400 100 KS : 2,850 2,750 2,500 91 KY : 1,240 1,290 1,170 91 LA : 640 790 850 108 MD : 520 490 480 98 MI : 2,150 2,050 2,000 98 MN : 7,300 7,200 7,400 103 MS : 1,160 1,440 1,500 104 MO : 4,950 5,050 4,950 98 NE : 4,950 4,700 4,650 99 NJ : 103 100 100 100 NY : 160 140 145 104 NC : 1,380 1,360 1,400 103 ND : 2,150 2,670 3,000 112 OH : 4,600 4,750 4,500 95 OK : 415 270 220 81 PA : 400 365 370 101 SC : 440 435 460 106 SD : 4,500 4,250 4,250 100 TN : 1,070 1,160 1,100 95 TX : 260 230 210 91 VA : 500 480 510 106 WV : 17 18 16 89 WI : 1,600 1,540 1,600 104 : US : 74,075 73,758 73,182 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended plantings in 2003 as indicated by reports from farmers. Peanuts: Area Planted by State and United States, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 1/ : 2003/2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- 1,000 Acres --------------- Percent : AL : 200.0 190.0 180.0 95 FL : 90.0 96.0 110.0 115 GA : 515.0 510.0 500.0 98 NM : 22.2 18.0 18.0 100 NC : 123.0 101.0 90.0 89 OK : 80.0 60.0 40.0 67 SC : 11.0 10.0 11.0 110 TX : 425.0 315.0 260.0 83 VA : 75.0 58.0 35.0 60 : US : 1,541.2 1,358.0 1,244.0 92 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended plantings in 2003 as indicated by reports from farmers. Sunflowers: Area Planted by Type, State, and United States, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Varietal : Area Planted Type and :--------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 1/ : 2003/2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Acres ------------ Percent : Oil : CO : 130 95 95 100 KS : 300 200 190 95 MN : 30 40 55 138 NE : 52 45 40 89 ND : 850 1,150 1,150 100 SD : 670 535 530 99 TX : 35 12 15 125 : Oth Sts 2/3/ : 50 48 48 100 : US : 2,117 2,125 2,123 100 : Non-Oil : CO : 65 35 30 86 KS : 35 15 20 133 MN : 30 30 35 117 NE : 30 13 20 154 ND : 220 220 200 91 SD : 45 105 40 38 TX : 73 30 37 123 : Oth Sts 2/3/ : 18 12 12 100 : US : 516 460 394 86 : All : CO : 195 130 125 96 KS : 335 215 210 98 MN : 60 70 90 129 NE : 82 58 60 103 ND : 1,070 1,370 1,350 99 SD : 715 640 570 89 TX : 108 42 52 124 : Oth Sts 2/3/ : 68 60 60 100 : US : 2,633 2,585 2,517 97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended plantings in 2003 as indicated by reports from farmers. 2/ 2003 estimates carried forward from 2002. First 2003 estimate will be published in "Acreage" on June 30, 2003. 3/ Other States include CA, GA, IL, LA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, UT, WA, WI, and WY. Canola: Area Planted by State and United States, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 1/ : 2003/2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Acres ------------ Percent : MN : 80 80 70 88 ND : 1,300 1,300 1,100 85 : Oth Sts 2/3/ : 114 79 79 100 : US : 1,494 1,459 1,249 86 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended plantings in 2003 as indicated by reports from farmers. 2/ 2003 estimates carried forward from 2002. First 2003 estimate will be published in "Acreage" on June 30, 2003. 3/ Other States include AL, AZ, CA, GA, ID, IN, KS, MI, MT, NY, OR, PA, SC, SD, and WA. Cotton: Area Planted by Type, State, and United States, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Type : Area Planted and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 1/ : 2003/2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- 1,000 Acres -------------- Percent : Upland : AL : 610.0 590.0 580.0 98 AZ : 295.0 215.0 200.0 93 AR : 1,080.0 960.0 1,030.0 107 CA : 630.0 480.0 540.0 113 FL : 125.0 120.0 100.0 83 GA : 1,490.0 1,450.0 1,400.0 97 KS : 40.5 80.0 110.0 138 LA : 870.0 520.0 530.0 102 MS : 1,620.0 1,170.0 1,250.0 107 MO : 405.0 380.0 410.0 108 NM : 68.0 54.0 58.0 107 NC : 970.0 940.0 900.0 96 OK : 270.0 200.0 200.0 100 SC : 300.0 290.0 250.0 86 TN : 620.0 570.0 600.0 105 TX : 6,000.0 5,600.0 5,800.0 104 VA : 105.0 100.0 95.0 95 : US : 15,498.5 13,719.0 14,053.0 102 : Amer-Pima : AZ : 7.8 8.0 7.0 88 CA : 240.0 210.0 170.0 81 NM : 5.2 7.1 7.0 99 TX : 17.0 18.5 16.0 86 : US : 270.0 243.6 200.0 82 : All : AL : 610.0 590.0 580.0 98 AZ : 302.8 223.0 207.0 93 AR : 1,080.0 960.0 1,030.0 107 CA : 870.0 690.0 710.0 103 FL : 125.0 120.0 100.0 83 GA : 1,490.0 1,450.0 1,400.0 97 KS : 40.5 80.0 110.0 138 LA : 870.0 520.0 530.0 102 MS : 1,620.0 1,170.0 1,250.0 107 MO : 405.0 380.0 410.0 108 NM : 73.2 61.1 65.0 106 NC : 970.0 940.0 900.0 96 OK : 270.0 200.0 200.0 100 SC : 300.0 290.0 250.0 86 TN : 620.0 570.0 600.0 105 TX : 6,017.0 5,618.5 5,816.0 104 VA : 105.0 100.0 95.0 95 : US : 15,768.5 13,962.6 14,253.0 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended plantings in 2003 as indicated by reports from farmers. Sugarbeets: Area Planted by State and United States, 2001-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 2/ : 2003/2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 Acres -------------- Percent : CA : 46.6 50.0 50.5 101 CO : 41.5 43.9 42.0 96 ID : 199.0 212.0 210.0 99 MI : 180.0 180.0 197.0 109 MN : 468.0 505.0 487.0 96 MT : 57.4 58.0 59.0 102 NE : 48.6 57.0 42.0 74 ND : 261.0 265.0 255.0 96 OH : 0.8 1.8 1.8 100 OR : 11.9 11.2 11.0 98 WA : 7.2 4.0 4.0 100 WY : 48.5 40.0 40.0 100 : US : 1,370.5 1,427.9 1,399.3 98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except CA. In CA, relates to year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in central CA and to year of planting for overwintered beets in central and southern CA. 2/ Intended plantings in 2003 as indicated by reports from farmers. Tobacco: Area Harvested by State and United States, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 1/ : 2003/2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------------- Acres ----------------- Percent : CT : 2,300 1,850 2,200 119 FL : 4,500 4,600 4,000 87 GA : 26,100 26,500 29,000 109 IN : 4,200 4,000 4,100 103 KY : 115,700 112,200 106,500 95 MD : 2,200 1,700 1,500 88 MA : 1,140 1,150 1,250 109 MO : 1,300 1,300 1,300 100 NC : 161,700 169,300 160,000 95 OH : 6,100 5,500 5,900 107 PA : 3,100 3,400 3,400 100 SC : 32,000 30,500 34,000 111 TN : 39,690 35,900 34,040 95 VA : 29,500 29,570 27,370 93 WV : 1,300 1,300 1,300 100 WI : 1,510 1,510 1,650 109 : US : 432,340 430,280 417,510 97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended area harvested in 2003 as indicated by reports from farmers. Tobacco: Area Harvested by Class, Type, State, and United States, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested Class and Type :-------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 1/ : 2003/2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- Acres --------------- Percent : Class 1, Flue-cured : Type 11, Old Belts : NC : 42,000 44,000 40,000 91 VA : 20,500 21,500 20,000 93 US : 62,500 65,500 60,000 92 Type 12, Eastern NC : Belt : NC : 93,000 95,000 94,000 99 Type 13, NC Border & : SC Belt : NC : 20,000 24,000 20,000 83 SC : 32,000 30,500 34,000 111 US : 52,000 54,500 54,000 99 Type 14, GA-FL Belt : FL : 4,500 4,600 4,000 87 GA : 26,100 26,500 29,000 109 US : 30,600 31,100 33,000 106 Total 11-14 : 238,100 246,100 241,000 98 Class 2, Fire-cured : Type 21, VA Belt : VA : 1,200 800 800 100 Type 22, Eastern : District : KY : 3,300 2,500 2,600 104 TN : 6,500 5,000 5,100 102 US : 9,800 7,500 7,700 103 Type 23, Western : District : KY : 3,100 2,400 2,400 100 TN : 520 400 410 103 US : 3,620 2,800 2,810 100 Total 21-23 : 14,620 11,100 11,310 102 Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3A, Light : Air-cured : Type 31, Burley : IN : 4,200 4,000 4,100 103 KY : 105,000 104,000 98,000 94 MO : 1,300 1,300 1,300 100 NC : 6,700 6,300 6,000 95 OH : 6,100 5,500 5,900 107 TN : 32,000 30,000 28,000 93 VA : 7,700 7,200 6,500 90 WV : 1,300 1,300 1,300 100 US : 164,300 159,600 151,100 95 Type 32, Southern MD : Belt : MD : 2,200 1,700 1,500 88 PA : 1,100 1,300 1,300 100 US : 3,300 3,000 2,800 93 Total 31-32 : 167,600 162,600 153,900 95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Tobacco: Area Harvested by Class, Type, State, and United States, 2001-2003 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested Class and Type :-------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 1/ : 2003/2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- Acres --------------- Percent : Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3B, Dark : Air-cured : Type 35, One Sucker : Belt : KY : 2,750 2,100 2,200 105 TN : 670 500 530 106 US : 3,420 2,600 2,730 105 Type 36, Green River : Belt : KY : 1,550 1,200 1,300 108 Type 37, VA Sun-cured : Belt : VA : 100 70 70 100 Total 35-37 : 5,070 3,870 4,100 106 Class 4, Cigar Filler : Type 41, PA Seedleaf : PA : 2,000 2,100 2,100 100 Class 5, Cigar Binder : Class 5A, CT Valley : Binder : Type 51, CT Valley : Broadleaf : CT : 1,300 1,250 1,500 120 MA : 840 850 950 112 US : 2,140 2,100 2,450 117 Class 5B, WI Binder : Type 54, Southern WI : WI : 1,200 1,200 1,300 108 Type 55, Northern WI : WI : 310 310 350 113 Total 54-55 : 1,510 1,510 1,650 109 Total 51-55 : 3,650 3,610 4,100 114 Class 6, Cigar Wrapper : Type 61, CT Valley : Shade-grown : CT : 1,000 600 700 117 MA : 300 300 300 100 US : 1,300 900 1,000 111 All Cigar Types : Total 41-61 : 6,950 6,610 7,200 109 : All Tobacco : 432,340 430,280 417,510 97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended area harvested in 2003 as indicated by reports from farmers. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted by State and United States, 2001-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 2/ : 2003/2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 Acres -------------- Percent : CA : 88.0 92.0 80.0 87 CO : 115.0 92.0 85.0 92 ID : 75.0 95.0 100.0 105 KS : 15.0 18.0 14.0 78 MI : 215.0 270.0 150.0 56 MN : 115.0 170.0 140.0 82 MT : 43.5 26.9 25.0 93 NE : 160.0 185.0 160.0 86 NM : 15.0 8.0 9.5 119 NY : 23.0 25.0 30.0 120 ND : 440.0 790.0 600.0 76 OR : 10.0 9.8 10.0 102 SD : 18.0 21.0 17.0 81 TX : 30.0 37.5 33.0 88 UT : 6.1 1.8 5.0 278 WA : 34.0 41.0 25.0 61 WI : 6.3 7.1 7.3 103 WY : 27.0 32.0 32.0 100 : US : 1,435.9 1,922.1 1,522.8 79 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Excludes beans grown for garden seed. 2/ Intended plantings in 2003 as indicated by reports from farmers. Sweet Potatoes: Area Planted by State and United States, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 1/ : 2003/2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 Acres ------------ Percent : AL : 3.0 2.9 2.9 100 CA : 10.0 10.4 10.1 97 GA 2/ : 0.5 LA : 24.0 21.0 18.0 86 MS : 16.7 16.0 14.0 88 NJ : 1.2 1.2 1.0 83 NC : 37.0 40.0 42.0 105 SC : 2.0 1.7 1.6 94 TX : 4.2 3.5 3.4 97 VA : 0.5 0.5 0.5 100 : US : 99.1 97.2 93.5 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended plantings in 2003 as indicated by reports from farmers. 2/ Estimates discontinued in 2002. Biotechnology Varieties The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts the March Agricultural Survey in all States each year. Randomly selected farmers across the United States were asked what they intend to plant during the upcoming growing season. Questions include whether or not farmers intend to plant corn, soybean, or upland cotton seed that, through biotechnology, is resistant to herbicides, insects, or both. The biotechnology (biotech) questions were asked for the first time in March 2000. The States published individually in the following tables represent 81 percent of all corn planted acres, 89 percent of all soybean planted acres, and 81 percent of all upland cotton planted acres. Conventionally bred herbicide resistant varieties were excluded. Insect resistant varieties include only those containing bacillus thuringiensis (Bt). Stacked gene varieties include those containing biotech traits for both herbicide and insect resistance. The acreage estimates are subject to sampling variability because all operations planting biotech varieties are not included in the sample. The variability for the 48 corn States, as measured by the relative standard error at the U.S. level, is approximately 1.4 percent for all biotech varieties, 2.0 percent for insect resistant (Bt) only varieties, 3.4 percent for herbicide resistant only varieties, and 5.7 percent for stacked gene varieties. This means that chances are approximately 95 out of 100 that survey estimates will be within plus or minus 2.8 percent for all biotech varieties, 4.0 percent for insect resistant (Bt) only varieties, 6.8 percent for herbicide resistant varieties, and 11.4 percent for stacked gene varieties. Variability for the 31 soybean States is approximately 0.7 percent for herbicide resistant varieties. Variability for the 17 upland cotton States is approximately 1.3 percent for all biotech varieties, 6.1 percent for insect resistant (Bt) only varieties, 4.2 percent for herbicide resistant only varieties, and 4.3 percent for stacked gene varieties. Corn: Biotechnology Varieties by State and United States, Percent of All Corn Planted, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Insect Resistant (Bt) : Herbicide Resistant State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : IL : 18 24 3 4 IN : 7 7 6 5 IA : 31 38 7 5 KS : 25 25 15 17 MI : 12 13 8 9 MN : 29 35 11 10 MO : 27 29 6 8 NE : 34 40 9 11 OH : 6 7 3 3 SD : 33 35 23 23 WI : 15 21 9 9 : Oth Sts 1/: 14 16 12 13 : US : 22 26 9 9 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Stacked Gene Varieties : All Biotech Varieties :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : IL : 1 1 22 29 IN : * 1 13 13 IA : 3 4 41 47 KS : 2 2 43 44 MI : 2 1 22 23 MN : 4 6 44 51 MO : 2 3 34 40 NE : 4 4 46 55 OH : * * 9 10 SD : 10 14 66 72 WI : 2 2 26 32 : Oth Sts 1/: 2 2 27 31 : US : 2 3 34 38 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Data rounds to less than 0.5 percent. 1/ Other States includes all other States in the Corn estimating program. Upland Cotton: Biotechnology Varieties by State and United States, Percent of Upland Cotton Planted, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Insect Resistant (Bt) : Herbicide Resistant State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 27 34 37 19 CA : 6 4 26 28 GA : 8 11 55 35 LA : 27 31 9 14 MS : 19 12 22 18 NC : 14 12 27 38 TX : 7 15 40 30 : Oth Sts 1/: 19 18 35 35 : US : 13 16 36 30 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Stacked Gene Varieties : All Biotech Varieties :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 26 39 90 92 CA : 1 1 33 33 GA : 30 43 93 89 LA : 49 43 85 88 MS : 47 48 88 78 NC : 45 41 86 91 TX : 4 5 51 50 : Oth Sts 1/: 32 33 86 86 : US : 22 24 71 70 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States includes all other States in the Upland Cotton estimating program. Soybeans: Biotechnology Varieties by State and United States, Percent of All Soybeans Planted, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Herbicide Resistant Only : All Biotech Varieties State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 68 79 68 79 IL : 71 78 71 78 IN : 83 91 83 91 IA : 75 82 75 82 KS : 83 84 83 84 MI : 72 73 72 73 MN : 71 75 71 75 MS : 80 81 80 81 MO : 72 80 72 80 NE : 85 87 85 87 ND : 61 70 61 70 OH : 73 74 73 74 SD : 89 90 89 90 WI : 78 79 78 79 : Oth Sts 1/: 70 75 70 75 : US : 75 80 75 80 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States includes all other States in the Soybean estimating program. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 5,073.0 5,379.0 4,135.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 79,054.0 79,022.0 69,313.0 Corn for Silage : 7,490.0 Hay, All : 64,497.0 63,552.0 Alfalfa : 23,135.0 All Other : 41,362.0 Oats : 5,005.0 4,828.0 2,098.0 2,204.0 Proso Millet : 450.0 220.0 Rice : 3,240.0 3,038.0 3,207.0 Rye : 1,395.0 286.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,580.0 9,451.0 7,299.0 Sorghum for Silage : 352.0 Wheat, All : 60,358.0 61,697.0 45,817.0 Winter : 41,735.0 44,308.0 29,651.0 Durum : 2,909.0 2,833.0 2,703.0 Other Spring : 15,714.0 14,556.0 13,463.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,459.0 1,249.0 1,275.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 785.0 704.0 Mustard Seed : 191.0 175.0 Peanuts : 1,358.0 1,244.0 1,296.7 Rapeseed : 3.4 3.1 Safflower : 219.0 196.0 Soybeans for Beans : 73,758.0 73,182.0 72,160.0 Sunflowers : 2,585.0 2,517.0 2,205.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,962.6 14,253.0 12,413.3 Upland : 13,719.0 14,053.0 12,171.0 Amer-Pima : 243.6 200.0 242.3 Sugarbeets : 1,427.9 1,399.3 1,361.0 Sugarcane : 1,026.1 Tobacco : 430.3 417.5 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 21.5 11.6 Dry Edible Beans : 1,922.1 1,522.8 1,726.9 Dry Edible Peas : 302.7 279.7 Lentils : 221.0 209.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.2 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.3 Hops : 29.3 Peppermint Oil : 80.2 Potatoes, All : 1,310.8 1,276.5 Winter : 15.8 15.6 15.7 15.5 Spring : 87.8 86.1 Summer : 63.0 59.9 Fall : 1,144.2 1,114.8 Spearmint Oil : 18.0 Sweet Potatoes : 97.2 93.5 83.3 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 54.9 226,873 Corn for Grain : " : 130.0 9,007,659 Corn for Silage : Ton : 14.0 104,979 Hay, All : " : 2.34 150,962 Alfalfa : " : 3.19 73,824 All Other : " : 1.86 77,138 Oats : Bu : 56.8 119,132 Proso Millet : " : 12.5 2,755 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,578 210,960 Rye : Bu : 24.4 6,985 Sorghum for Grain : " : 50.7 369,758 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 9.5 3,360 Wheat, All : Bu : 35.3 1,616,441 Winter : " : 38.5 1,142,802 Durum : " : 29.4 79,450 Other Spring : " : 29.3 394,189 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,218 1,552,520 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 6,419.3 Flaxseed : Bu : 17.9 12,569 Mustard Seed : Lb : 705 123,450 Peanuts : " : 2,561 3,320,490 Rapeseed : " : 1,461 4,530 Safflower : " : 1,520 297,980 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 37.8 2,729,709 Sunflowers : Lb : 1,133 2,497,236 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 663 17,145.0 Upland 2/ : " : 651 16,496.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,286 649.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 20.2 27,550 Sugarcane : " : 35.1 36,026 Tobacco : Lb : 2,068 889,632 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,414 164 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,736 29,974 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,517 4,242 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,200 2,508 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 457 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,370 8,500 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 45,000 14,400 Hops : " : 1,990 58,336.6 Peppermint Oil : " : 85 6,818 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 363 463,214 Winter : " : 268 268 4,206 4,153 Spring : " : 271 23,294 Summer : " : 309 18,486 Fall : " : 374 417,228 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 108 1,942 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 150 12,498 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 6,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,052,990 2,176,830 1,673,390 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,992,360 31,979,410 28,050,280 Corn for Silage : 3,031,130 Hay, All 3/ : 26,101,290 25,718,860 Alfalfa : 9,362,500 All Other : 16,738,790 Oats : 2,025,470 1,953,840 849,040 891,940 Proso Millet : 182,110 89,030 Rice : 1,311,200 1,229,450 1,297,840 Rye : 564,540 115,740 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,876,930 3,824,730 2,953,830 Sorghum for Silage : 142,450 Wheat, All 3/ :24,426,280 24,968,160 18,541,680 Winter :16,889,740 17,931,000 11,999,460 Durum : 1,177,240 1,146,490 1,093,880 Other Spring : 6,359,300 5,890,670 5,448,340 : Oilseeds : Canola : 590,440 505,460 515,980 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 317,680 284,900 Mustard Seed : 77,300 70,820 Peanuts : 549,570 503,430 524,760 Rapeseed : 1,380 1,250 Safflower : 88,630 79,320 Soybeans for Beans :29,849,130 29,616,020 29,202,430 Sunflowers : 1,046,120 1,018,600 892,340 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,650,520 5,768,050 5,023,540 Upland : 5,551,940 5,687,110 4,925,480 Amer-Pima : 98,580 80,940 98,060 Sugarbeets : 577,860 566,280 550,780 Sugarcane : 415,250 Tobacco : 174,130 168,960 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 8,700 4,690 Dry Edible Beans : 777,850 616,260 698,860 Dry Edible Peas : 122,500 113,190 Lentils : 89,440 84,580 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,510 Ginger Root (HI) : 130 Hops : 11,860 Peppermint Oil : 32,460 Potatoes, All 3/ : 530,470 516,590 Winter : 6,390 6,310 6,350 6,270 Spring : 35,530 34,840 Summer : 25,500 24,240 Fall : 463,050 451,150 Spearmint Oil : 7,280 Sweet Potatoes : 39,340 37,840 33,710 Taro (HI) 4/ : 170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2.95 4,939,580 Corn for Grain : 8.16 228,805,080 Corn for Silage : 31.42 95,235,350 Hay, All 2/ : 5.25 136,950,420 Alfalfa : 7.15 66,972,010 All Other : 4.18 69,978,420 Oats : 2.04 1,729,200 Proso Millet : 0.70 62,480 Rice : 7.37 9,568,990 Rye : 1.53 177,430 Sorghum for Grain : 3.18 9,392,290 Sorghum for Silage : 21.40 3,048,140 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.37 43,992,310 Winter : 2.59 31,101,970 Durum : 1.98 2,162,270 Other Spring : 1.97 10,728,070 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.36 704,210 Cottonseed 3/ : 5,823,490 Flaxseed : 1.12 319,270 Mustard Seed : 0.79 56,000 Peanuts : 2.87 1,506,150 Rapeseed : 1.64 2,050 Safflower : 1.70 135,160 Soybeans for Beans : 2.54 74,290,500 Sunflowers : 1.27 1,132,730 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.74 3,732,880 Upland : 0.73 3,591,580 Amer-Pima : 1.44 141,300 Sugarbeets : 45.38 24,992,940 Sugarcane : 78.70 32,682,240 Tobacco : 2.32 403,530 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.58 7,440 Dry Edible Beans : 1.95 1,359,600 Dry Edible Peas : 1.70 192,410 Lentils : 1.35 113,760 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 20,730 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.54 3,860 Ginger Root (HI) : 50.44 6,530 Hops : 2.23 26,460 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,090 Potatoes, All 2/ : 40.67 21,011,030 Winter : 30.03 30.03 190,780 188,380 Spring : 30.32 1,056,600 Summer : 34.59 838,510 Fall : 41.95 18,925,140 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 880 Sweet Potatoes : 16.82 566,900 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,770 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Winter Weather Review Highlights: Given the presence of warm-phase conditions in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (El Ni o), one of the big surprises was the persistently cold weather across the eastern one-third of the Nation, for reasons unrelated to El Ni o. The other surprise was the nearly total lack of significant storminess in January. December and February exhibited weather patterns more typical of El Ni o, with frequent storminess in a broad swath across the South and East and drier-than-normal weather farther north in portions of the Plains and much of the Midwest. The stormy weather pattern during December and February was enough to overcome a very dry January, resulting in above-normal winter precipitation from the Rio Grande Valley northeastward into lower New England. The West received only sporadic and disappointingly light precipitation, except for above-normal seasonal precipitation along the Pacific Northwest coast and in eastern Washington. The Eastern chill held winter temperatures generally 2 to 6 degrees F below normal. Southern Florida escaped a late-January brush with cold weather with minimal damage to citrus and winter ground crops. Farther west, temperatures from the Plains to the Mississippi River averaged a few degrees either side of normal, despite a cold February. Some locations across the northern High Plains and upper Midwest were as much as 4 degrees F above normal. The winter was warmer than normal from the Rockies westward, with temperatures ranging from slightly above normal in the Southwest to as much as 6 degrees F above normal in the Northwest. December: An El Ni o-driven weather pattern featured heavy precipitation in the West Coast States and across the South, but mild, mostly dry weather from the northern half of the Plains to the upper Great Lakes region. Although precipitation aided winter grains and boosted high-elevation snowpacks across northern California and the Northwest, mostly dry weather persisted in drought-affected areas from the Southwest to the central Rockies. Meanwhile, mild weather on the Plains benefited the dormant winter wheat crop. Rain and snow boosted soil moisture reserves on the southern Plains, but dry weather depleted soil moisture and left wheat exposed to potential weather extremes on the northern and central High Plains. In the Corn Belt, mild, dry weather favored off-season fieldwork across the upper Midwest, while rain and snow replenished soil moisture from the Ohio Valley to the lower Great Lakes region. Persistent rains across the South caused fieldwork delays, triggered lowland flooding, and left some winter grains in standing water. Meanwhile, rain and snow eradicated lingering long-term drought in the Atlantic Coast States. Below-normal temperatures were confined to the South and East, where readings averaged as much as 5 degrees F below normal. In contrast, warmer-than-normal weather prevailed from the Northwest to the upper Midwest, boosting temperatures as much as 10 degrees F above normal. Little or no moisture accompanied the mild weather across the northern Plains and upper Midwest, but at least 8 to 12 inches of precipitation soaked many locations in northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the central part of Florida's peninsula, and areas from eastern Texas to the southern Appalachians. January: The influence of El Ni o on mainland U.S. weather patterns temporarily waned during January, despite the continuation of warm-episode conditions in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean. In fact, the Nation experienced its second-driest January on record, according to preliminary data from the National Climatic Data Center. Unusually wet weather was confined to parts of the Northwest, but drought remained a major concern elsewhere from the Rockies westward. East of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades, dismal runoff prospects for the remainder of 2003, low reservoir levels, and drought-damaged rangelands were among the most serious effects of long-term Western precipitation deficits. Unfavorably dry weather also persisted on the drought-affected northern and central High Plains. Just enough snow fell on the northern Plains in advance of a mid- to late-month cold outbreak to help protect winter wheat from temperatures as low as -30 degrees F. In contrast, mild weather prevailed for the entire month on the central Plains, benefiting overwintering wheat despite dry soils and minimal snow. Dry weather and developing drought in the Corn Belt had little effect on Midwestern agriculture but hampered upper Mississippi Valley river traffic due to low water levels and curtailed snow-dependent recreational activities. Meanwhile in the South, dry weather permitted an acceleration of fieldwork, following an excessively wet spell in late 2002. By month's end, however, irrigation requirements for winter grains increased in the southern Atlantic region as far north as southern Georgia. Farther north, heavy, early-month precipitation in the Northeast was followed by cold weather and several mostly light snowfalls. January temperatures ranged from 4 to 12 degrees F above normal across most of the West and High Plains and averaged as much as 4 degrees F above normal in the upper Midwest. In contrast, monthly readings ranged from 4 to 10 degrees F below normal in Florida and were as much as 6 degrees F below normal elsewhere in the South. Cool January weather helped to acclimate Florida's citrus trees in advance of the January 24-25 freezes and added beneficial chill hours for fruit trees elsewhere in the Southeast. Monthly temperatures were mostly 2 to 8 degrees F below normal across the eastern one-third of the Nation, including the eastern Corn Belt and the Northeast. February: Following an uncharacteristically tranquil January, much of the Nation experienced a return to stormy weather in February. Specifically, wet weather re-developed across the South (excluding southern Florida and portions of the southern High Plains), while some locations from the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic States and southern New England endured record-setting snowfall totals. Southern wetness slowed or halted spring planting preparations from the western Gulf Coast region to the southern Atlantic States, including the Delta. Farther north, however, drought gradually intensified in parts of the Midwest, primarily from northern Missouri to Lower Michigan. Meanwhile, the Plains received varying amounts of precipitation. Dryness persisted across northern Texas, but late-month snowfall on the central Plains boosted soil moisture reserves and insulated the winter wheat crop from a late-season cold snap. On the northern Plains, however, only a shallow snow cover protected wheat from temperatures as low as -30 degrees F. Elsewhere, areas from the Southwest to the Rockies received beneficial precipitation that boosted topsoil moisture and mountain snow packs, but provided only limited relief from long-term drought. Much of the West faces water-supply concerns due to the combination of already-low reservoir levels, near- to below-normal snow packs, and poor spring and summer runoff prospects. Monthly temperatures were within a few degrees of normal west of the Rockies and up to 4 degrees F above normal in southern Florida, but significantly below normal elsewhere. The coldest areas, relative to normal, were the Plains, Midwest, and Northeast, where monthly readings ranging from 2 to 10 degrees F below normal maintained stress on livestock. Winter Agricultural Summary Seasonally heavy precipitation in the low, coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest alleviated dry soil conditions. Abnormally dry soil conditions remained across much of the Southwest, Rocky Mountains, and Great Plains regions. Snowpack measurements were below normal in most locations. Temperatures in the eastern third of the nation were generally below normal while temperatures in the rest of the country ranged from near to slightly above normal. The northern and central Great Plains, upper and middle Mississippi Valley, and western Great Lakes regions experienced drier than normal conditions with little snowcover. Due to the lack of snowcover, winter wheat and alfalfa in some areas were exposed to wind-blown soil and extreme temperature fluctuations. These fluctuations included several brief periods of bitter cold and many record and near record highs. January was relatively dry from the Texas Panhandle through the Delta and Southeast regions, across the Tennessee Valley and northeast to New England. This allowed for normal fieldwork to proceed in most southern areas. However December and especially February brought heavy precipitation to these areas, saturating fields and halting fieldwork. The precipitation essentially ended the drought across this wide expanse, except for a narrow band running through Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas also experienced a severe ice storm in late February. In California, warm weather and ample moisture supplies stimulated development of winter crops. Field and orchard work progressed with few interruptions. The warm daytime temperatures also accelerated the bloom cycle in early varieties of peaches and nectarines. Timely rains in California's southern San Joaquin Valley provided good moisture for growth of dryland grain and hay crops. Weather conditions for almond pollination were less than ideal. Pastures were in good overall condition, with the best conditions reported in the northern half of the State. In the Corn Belt, conditions were warmer than average. Precipitation was below normal across most of the Corn Belt, while the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes region received above-normal precipitation. Cold weather briefly halted growth of winter grains and forages in Florida but sub-freezing temperatures were not sustained long enough to damage the citrus crop. Many citrus growers irrigated on a rotating basis to maintain soil moisture and ensure good tree condition during the bloom cycle. Soil moisture supplies were rated short to mostly adequate. In southern Florida, the sugarcane harvest and work in vegetable fields continued with few delays. Corn: Growers intend to plant 79.0 million acres of corn for all purposes in 2003, virtually unchanged from 2002 but 4 percent above 2001. Expected acreage is up in the eastern Corn Belt as growers are switching back to corn after planting soybeans last year when persistent wet weather in the spring prevented them from seeding corn. However, all States in the Great Plains, except North Dakota, are decreasing their intended corn plantings as continued drought conditions are expected to persist into the 2003 crop year. Farmers intend to plant 38 percent of their acreage with varieties developed using biotechnology, up 4 percentage points from 2002. If these intentions are realized, 26 percent of the acreage will be planted with varieties containing bacillus thuringiensis (Bt), up 4 points from last year. Nine percent of the acreage will be planted with herbicide resistant varieties developed using biotechnology, unchanged from 2002. Stacked gene varieties, those containing both insect and herbicide resistance from biotechnology, will be planted on 3 percent of the acreage, up 1 point from the previous year. Sorghum: The 2003 intended sorghum acreage planted for all purposes is estimated at 9.45 million acres, down 1 percent from last year. The largest acreage declines are expected by growers in Kansas and Texas. Kansas producers intend to plant 3.70 million acres, 3 percent less than last year. In Texas, where soil preparation and early planting have been delayed by wet conditions and rains, the intended sorghum acreage of 2.90 million acres is down 9 percent from 2002. Sorghum acres are expected to increase in the Northern Great Plains where farmers are anticipating continued dry conditions. Nebraska is expecting 650,000 acres to be planted, an increase of 44 percent from last year. Oats: Acres seeded and to be seeded for the 2003 crop year are expected to total 4.83 million, down 4 percent from last year's planted area. Growers expect to harvest 2.20 million acres for grain, 5 percent more than the 2002 harvested acreage of 2.10 million. Acres for grain are up in the central and northern Great Plains and Rocky Mountain States. Barley: Growers intend to seed 5.38 million acres for 2003, up 6 percent from a year ago. The intended acreage in North Dakota is up 400,000 acres from last year. Montana's barley acreage is expected to be unchanged from last year with producers experiencing an ongoing drought. Fewer acres are expected in the Pacific Northwest States where dry conditions and concerns over water availability exist in some areas. Washington State's intended acreage is down 11 percent, the lowest since 1995, while Oregon expects its lowest planted area on record. Winter Wheat: Planted area for the 2003 crop is 44.3 million acres, up 6 percent from 2002. Of the total, about 31.9 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 8.2 million acres Soft Red Winter, and 4.2 million acres White Winter. The Texas and Oklahoma crop fared well over the winter, but soil moisture was becoming short in recent weeks. However, dry weather has hampered the crop in Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Although precipitation was also below normal in Montana, the crop was actually in better condition than one year ago, based on condition ratings at the end of February. Durum Wheat: Area seeded to Durum wheat is expected to total 2.83 million acres, down 3 percent from 2002. Seeding in the San Joaquin Valley of California progressed rapidly from October to December. Planting began in California's Imperial Valley in late November and continued into March. Other Spring Wheat: Growers intend to plant 14.6 million acres this year, down 7 percent from 2002. Of the total, about 13.8 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. All major producing States intend to plant fewer acres this year. The largest acreage decline is expected in Montana, where growers planted significant acreage following abandoned winter wheat last year. Rice: Area intended for rice in 2003 is estimated at 3.04 million acres, down 6 percent from 2002 and down 9 percent from 2001. All producing States intend to plant fewer acres to rice in 2003 with the exception of Mississippi which intends to equal their 2002 acreage. Long grain intended acreage, representing 76 percent of total, is down 9 percent from last year. Medium grain intended acreage is up 5 percent from 2002 and represents 23 percent of the total. Area intended for short grain varieties showed no change from 2002. Hay: Producers expect to harvest 63.6 million acres of all hay in 2003, down 1 percent from 2002. Harvested acres for 2003 are expected to decrease in 17 States. North Dakota, down 900,000 acres, has the largest decrease following the drought conditions last year which resulted in more Conservation Reserve Program land and small grain acres harvested for hay. Hay acres in Texas dropped 430,000 acres from the record high acreage last year. Reduced water availability for irrigating hay is lowering growers' expectations in the Pacific Coast States . Soybeans: Growers intend to plant an estimated 73.2 million acres of soybeans, down 1 percent from last year and, if realized, the lowest planted area since 1998. This is the third consecutive year that soybean acreage has declined in the United States. The largest acreage declines are expected in Kansas and Ohio, both down 250,000 acres from 2002. Growers in most of the Corn Belt and central Great Plains States also intend to plant fewer acres in 2003. States expecting increases in acreage, offsetting some of the decreases, are North Dakota and Minnesota, up 330,000 and 200,000 acres, respectively. Other States expected to increase acreage from last year were located along the Atlantic Coast and Delta region. Producers intend to plant 80 percent of the soybean acreage to herbicide resistant varieties in 2003, up 5 percentage points from 2002. Peanuts: Producers intend to plant 1.24 million acres of peanuts in 2003, down 8 percent from one year ago. Of the nine producing States, six intend to plant fewer acres than in 2002. Florida and South Carolina intend to plant more acres, while New Mexico intends to show no change in planted area from 2002. Producers continue to adjust to the peanut provisions adopted in the 2002 Farm Bill. Southeast growers (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina) intend to plant 801,000 acres, down 1 percent from a year ago. In the Virginia-North Carolina region producers intend to plant 125,000 acres, down 21 percent from 2002. Growers in the Southwest (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) intend to plant 318,000 acres, 19 percent below 2002. Sunflowers: Growers expect to plant a total of 2.52 million acres in 2003, down 3 percent from last year. Acres intended for oil type varieties, at 2.12 million acres, are virtually unchanged from the 2002 acreage, while the non-oil varieties, estimated at 394,000 acres, are down 14 percent from last year. North Dakota growers intend to plant 1.35 million acres in 2003, down 1 percent from 2002. Growers in South Dakota intend to plant 570,000 acres, down 11 percent from the previous year. Acreage decreases are also expected in Colorado and Kansas while acreage in Minnesota, Nebraska, and Texas is expected to increase from last year. Canola: Producers intend to plant 1.25 million acres in 2003, a decrease of 14 percent from 2002. This is the third consecutive year that canola acreage has declined in the United States. Producers in North Dakota and Minnesota intend to plant 1.10 million and 70,000 acres, respectively. Cotton: Area planted to all cotton for 2003 is expected to total 14.3 million acres, 2 percent more than last year. Upland acreage is expected to total 14.1 million acres, also up 2 percent. Growers intend to decrease plantings of American-Pima cotton to 200,000 acres, an 18 percent decline from a year ago. Upland growers in the Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) intend to plant 3.82 million acres, a 6 percent increase from the previous year. Producers in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and New Mexico intend to plant 6.17 million acres, up 4 percent. Farmers in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia) intend to plant 3.33 million acres of upland cotton, a 5 percent decrease from 2002. Upland planted acreage in California and Arizona is expected to total 740,000 acres, a 6 percent increase from last year. California producers intend to plant 540,000 acres, 13 percent more than a year ago. American-Pima acreage intentions are reported at 200,000 acres, a decrease of 18 percent from last year. The decrease occurred in all Pima estimating States, with California producers intending to plant 40,000 acres less than last year. Arizona and Texas producers are decreasing planted acreage by 12 percent and 14 percent, respectively. New Mexico growers intend to plant 7,000 acres, down slightly from last year. Growers are encouraged by the recent upturn in upland cotton prices and are switching to upland varieties. Uncertainty with water availability also contributed to lower intended Pima acreage. Sugarbeets: Area planted to sugarbeets for the 2003 crop year is expected to total 1.40 million acres, 2 percent below the 2002 planted area. Minnesota and North Dakota, expecting 487,000 and 255,000 acres respectively, are both down 4 percent from last year. Michigan is expecting a 9 percent increase in acreage, planting 197,000 acres in 2003. Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco area for harvest in 2003 is expected to be 417,510 acres, down 3 percent from both the 2002 and 2001 crops. If realized, this would be the lowest harvested acreage since 1874. Expected harvested area for flue-cured and light air-cured is down from last year. However, acres to be harvested of fire-cured, dark air-cured, cigar binder, and cigar wrapper are up from a year ago. Cigar filler is unchanged from 2002. Flue-cured tobacco, at 241,000 acres, is 2 percent below a year ago. Flue-cured acreage accounts for 58 percent of this year's expected total tobacco acreage. Acreage in North Carolina, the leading flue-cured State, is down 6 percent from last year. Harvested acreage is also expected to decline in Virginia and Florida by 7 percent and 13 percent, respectively. Plans for flue-cured tobacco in Georgia are up 9 percent over last season, while South Carolina expects an 11 percent increase in harvested acres. Acreage in these two States is expected to increase to compensate for the low 2002 production and lack of carryover into the 2003 season. Light air-cured tobacco types are down 5 percent from last year and 8 percent below 2001. Burley tobacco, at 151,100 acres, is down 5 percent from a year ago and 8 percent below two years ago. Four burley producing States expect a decline in acres from last year. These States are North Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Virginia which are down 5 percent, 6 percent, 7 percent, and 10 percent, respectively. Two States are expecting increased acres. Indiana is up 3 percent from 2002 and Ohio is up 7 percent. Missouri and West Virginia are expecting no change in acreage from the previous year. Southern Maryland type tobacco acres are estimated at 2,800 acres, down 7 percent from last year. Maryland's acreage dropped 12 percent from last year but Pennsylvania expects no change from 2002. Fire-cured tobacco types, at 11,310 acres, are up 2 percent from 2002. The leading States of Tennessee and Kentucky are both expected to increase harvested acres over last year by 2 percent. Dark Air-cured tobacco types, at 4,100 acres, are 6 percent above last year's harvested acres but 19 percent below 2001. One sucker type tobacco, at 2,730 acres, is 5 percent above last year and Green River type tobacco, at 1,300 acres, is 8 percent above 2002. Sun-cured is unchanged from last year but down 30 percent from 2001. All cigar types, at 7,200 acres, are up 9 percent from last year and 4 percent above 2001. Acreage of Pennsylvania seedleaf, at 2,100 acres, is unchanged from last year. However, Connecticut and Massachusetts broadleaf acreage, at 2,450, is up 17 percent from the 2002 crop. Expected harvested acres of Connecticut and Massachusetts shade-grown tobacco are estimated to be 1,000, up 11 percent from a year ago. Wisconsin binder tobacco, at 1,650 acres, is up 9 percent from last year. Dry Beans: Prospective 2003 planting of dry beans in the U.S. totals 1.52 million acres, down 21 percent from last year but 6 percent above two years ago. Low prices for the 2002 crop pushed planting intentions down in 11 of the 18 major producing States. Six States expect to plant more dry bean acres than a year ago, while acreage is intended to be the same in Wyoming. Michigan farmers expect a 44 percent decline in dry bean acreage this year. Washington's prospective acreage is down 39 percent. North Dakota growers expect a 24 percent decline, Minnesota dry bean acreage is expected to decline 18 percent, and Nebraska growers expect a 14 percent downturn if current plans are carried out. California, Colorado, Kansas, Montana, South Dakota, and Texas also expect their dry bean acreage to be down. The States that expect planting increases from a year ago are: Idaho, up 5 percent; New Mexico, up 19 percent; Utah, up nearly triple from last year's drought affected crop; Oregon, up 2 percent; Wisconsin, up 3 percent; and New York, up 20 percent. Planting is ready to go for California's early classes. Most States, however, will wait until late April through June for dry bean planting. Dryland areas of Colorado and Utah are looking for a return of their acreage after last year's drought. A heavy snow storm across Colorado's Rockies should help provide irrigation water but normal supplies are still short. Drought conditions also remain in Montana, Wyoming, and Oregon. Sweet Potatoes: Growers intend to plant 93,500 acres of sweet potatoes in 2003, down 4 percent from last year and 5 percent below 2001 for comparable States. Six States expect lower acreage than last year, two are unchanged, but North Carolina growers expect a 5 percent increase. Transplant preparations are active in North Carolina as most growers have planted their beds or have lined up sources for plants. Planted acreage in Virginia and Alabama is expected to be the same as last year. Alabama growers are preparing hotbeds for slip development and expect to start transplanting toward the end of April. Planting intentions in South Carolina are down 6 percent and New Jersey growers look for a 17 percent decline. Mississippi and Louisiana intentions for sweet potatoes are down 12 and 14 percent, respectively. Sweet potato acreage in Louisiana has continued a decline caused by two years of drought followed by two years of excessive rains and hurricane damage. Planting intentions in California and Texas are both down 3 percent from last year. Texas growers face wet soils this year which is quite the opposite of the dryness a year ago. California farmers are busy preparing hotbeds for plant development as field transplanting time approaches. No major problems or unusual situations have been reported. Reliability of Acreage Data in this Report Survey Procedures: The acreage estimates in this report are based primarily on surveys conducted during the first 2 weeks of March. The March Agricultural Survey is a probability survey that includes a sample of nearly 75,000 farm operators selected from a list of producers that ensures all operations in the U.S. have a chance to be selected. These operators were contacted by mail, telephone, or personal interview to obtain information on crop acreage planned for the 2003 crop year. Estimating Procedures: National, Regional, State, and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). Survey data are compiled to the National level and are reviewed at this level independently of each State's review. Acreage estimates were based on survey data and the historical relationship of official estimates to the survey data. Revision Policy: Acreage estimates in the "Prospective Plantings" report will not be revised. These estimates are intended to reflect grower intentions as of the survey period. New acreage estimates will be made based on surveys conducted in June when crop acreages have been established or planting intentions are firm. These new estimates will be published in the "Acreage" report scheduled for June 30, 2003. Winter wheat is an exception. Since winter wheat was seeded prior to the March survey, any changes in estimates in this report are considered revisions. The estimate of the harvested acreage of winter wheat will be published on May 12, 2003, along with the first production forecast of the crop year. Reliability: The survey used to make acreage estimates is subject to sampling and non-sampling errors that are common to all surveys. Sampling errors represent the variability between estimates that would result if many different samples were surveyed at the same time. Sampling errors for major crops are generally between 1.0 and 3.0 percent, but they cannot be applied directly to the acreage published in this report to determine confidence intervals because the official estimates represent a composite of information from more than a single source. Non-sampling errors cannot be measured directly. They may occur due to incorrect reporting and/or recording, data omissions or duplications, and errors in processing. To minimize non-sampling errors, vigorous quality controls are used in the data collection process and all data are carefully reviewed for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of acreage estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviations between the acreage estimates in this report and the final estimates are expressed as a percentage of the final estimates. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimates relative to the final end-of-season estimates, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimates are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the corn planted estimate is 2.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current corn acreage estimate will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.6 percent. Also, shown in the table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the difference between the "Prospective Plantings" planted acreage estimates and the final estimates. Using corn again as an example, changes between the intentions estimates and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 1.19 million acres, ranging from 7,000 acres to 3.84 million acres. The prospective plantings estimates have been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times. This does not imply that the planted estimate this year is likely to understate or overstate the final estimate. Reliability of Prospective Plantings Planted Acreage Estimates -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 20-Year Record of : : : Differences Between Forecast : : : and Final Estimate : : :------------------------------------ : Root Mean : : Thousand Acres : Number of Crop :Square Error: 90 : Quantity : Years : Percent : Percent :------------------------------------ : :Confidence : : : :Below:Above : : Interval :Average:Smallest:Largest:Final:Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ Thousands ----- Number : Corn : 2.1 3.6 1,186 7 3,844 7 13 Sorghum : 8.1 14.0 785 76 2,471 11 9 Oats : 7.7 13.3 641 22 2,429 4 16 Barley : 5.2 9.0 370 5 1,369 6 14 Winter Wheat : 1.2 2.1 478 8 1,630 8 12 Durum Wheat : 8.7 15.0 219 12 573 11 9 Other Spring Wheat: 7.6 13.1 960 12 2,543 13 7 Soybeans : 2.8 4.8 1,360 0 5,046 13 6 Upland Cotton : 5.6 9.8 416 6 1,354 10 10 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats (202) 690-3234 Roy Karkosh - Barley, Sorghum, Sugar Crops (202) 690-8140 Terry O'Connor - Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-4288 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Arvin Budge - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250 Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Betty Johnston - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts(202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Prospective Plantings" report will be released in March 2004. 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