Cr Pr 2-4 (3-04) a Prospective Plantings National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 31, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Prospective Plantings" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Corn Planted Acreage Up Fractionally from 2003 Soybean Acreage Up 3 Percent All Wheat Acreage Down 4 Percent All Cotton Acreage Up 7 Percent Corn planted area for all purposes is estimated at 79.0 million acres, up fractionally from both 2002 and 2003. Expected acreage is up from last year throughout much of the Corn Belt as growers are hoping to take advantage of higher corn prices. However, most States in the Southeast and southern Great Plains are intending to decrease their corn plantings as producers are switching to soybeans and cotton due to more favorable prices relative to corn. Soybean growers intend to plant an estimated 75.4 million acres, up 3 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the largest planted area on record and a rebound from the three year decline in acreage. Growers in all States, except South Dakota and Wisconsin, intend to plant more than or at least as many acres of soybeans as last year. Current high prices are encouraging many producers to plant more soybeans, with the largest acreage increases expected in North Dakota, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Minnesota. All wheat planted area is expected to total 59.5 million acres in 2004, down 4 percent from 2003. Winter wheat planted area for the 2004 crop is 43.4 million acres, down 3 percent from 2003. Of the total, about 30.9 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 8.3 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 4.2 million acres are White Winter. The 2004 other spring wheat planted acreage is estimated at 13.3 million, down 4 percent from last year. Of the total, about 12.7 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Area planted to Durum wheat is intended to total 2.76 million acres, down 5 percent from a year ago. All Cotton plantings for 2004 are expected to total 14.4 million acres, 7 percent above last year. Upland acreage is expected to total 14.2 million acres, also a 7 percent increase. All States are expecting more acreage than last year except for North Carolina and Mississippi. American-Pima cotton growers intend to increase their plantings to 226,600 acres, up 27 percent from 2003. The increase is primarily in California where producers are intending to plant 50,000 acres more than last year. This report was approved on March 31, 2004. Secretary of Agriculture Ann M. Veneman Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Barley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Beans, Dry Edible. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Canola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Corn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Biotechnology Varieties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Biotechnology Varieties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Hay. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Oats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Peanuts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Rice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Sorghum. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Soybeans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Biotechnology Varieties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Sugarbeets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Sunflowers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Sweet Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Tobacco. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Wheat, All . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Durum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Other Spring. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Winter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Corn: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 1/ : 2004/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 Acres ------------- Percent : AL : 200 220 220 100 AZ : 60 47 47 100 AR : 265 365 280 77 CA : 545 520 550 106 CO : 1,200 1,080 1,150 106 CT : 32 30 30 100 DE : 180 170 165 97 FL : 75 75 65 87 GA : 340 340 330 97 ID : 190 190 180 95 IL : 11,100 11,200 11,200 100 IN : 5,400 5,600 5,600 100 IA : 12,200 12,400 12,500 101 KS : 3,250 2,900 3,000 103 KY : 1,160 1,170 1,190 102 LA : 580 520 450 87 ME : 29 28 28 100 MD : 510 480 490 102 MA : 22 20 20 100 MI : 2,250 2,300 2,350 102 MN : 7,200 7,200 7,400 103 MS : 550 550 450 82 MO : 2,800 2,900 2,950 102 MT : 65 65 70 108 NE : 8,400 8,100 8,000 99 NV : 4 4 4 100 NH : 15 15 15 100 NJ : 90 80 85 106 NM : 140 130 140 108 NY : 1,020 1,000 960 96 NC : 780 740 760 103 ND : 1,230 1,450 1,600 110 OH : 3,250 3,300 3,400 103 OK : 240 230 210 91 OR : 48 51 57 112 PA : 1,400 1,450 1,400 97 RI : 2 2 2 100 SC : 320 240 290 121 SD : 4,450 4,400 4,450 101 TN : 690 710 650 92 TX : 2,050 1,830 1,750 96 UT : 57 55 61 111 VT : 95 96 90 94 VA : 500 470 440 94 WA : 130 130 150 115 WV : 50 48 45 94 WI : 3,650 3,750 3,650 97 WY : 80 85 80 94 : US : 78,894 78,736 79,004 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. Sorghum: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 1/ : 2004/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 Acres ------------- Percent : AL : 10 10 10 100 AZ : 15 17 15 88 AR : 240 225 110 49 CA : 17 18 19 106 CO : 350 270 340 126 DE : 2 2 2 100 GA : 55 55 50 91 IL : 80 110 110 100 KS : 3,800 3,550 3,400 96 KY : 12 33 20 61 LA : 180 170 100 59 MD : 5 6 5 83 MS : 80 75 40 53 MO : 200 215 175 81 NE : 450 660 550 83 NM : 170 140 130 93 NC : 17 18 18 100 OK : 430 300 290 97 PA : 11 15 15 100 SC : 7 7 7 100 SD : 220 270 350 130 TN : 30 45 35 78 TX : 3,200 3,200 2,800 88 VA : 8 9 9 100 : US : 9,589 9,420 8,600 91 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. Oats: Area Planted and Harvested by State and United States, 2002-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State:-------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 :2004 2/ :2004/2003: 2002 : 2003 :2004 2/ :2004/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Acres ----- Percent ----- 1,000 Acres ----- Percent : CA : 260 260 280 108 32 35 35 100 CO : 65 100 90 90 8 15 30 200 GA : 90 100 80 80 25 30 25 83 ID : 125 120 125 104 25 25 25 100 IL : 65 60 50 83 45 50 40 80 IN : 20 25 25 100 14 15 16 107 IA : 290 220 200 91 175 130 120 92 KS : 140 140 130 93 60 70 60 86 ME : 28 31 30 97 27 30 29 97 MI : 80 90 90 100 65 75 75 100 MN : 420 350 290 83 265 265 200 75 MO : 65 30 22 73 35 18 13 72 MT : 135 120 130 108 50 45 50 111 NE : 175 220 155 70 55 90 70 78 NY : 75 85 95 112 65 70 75 107 NC : 65 55 60 109 25 22 30 136 ND : 670 620 550 89 300 360 300 83 OH : 70 80 70 88 55 60 50 83 OK : 85 70 50 71 20 25 15 60 OR : 70 60 60 100 30 20 30 150 PA : 140 140 140 100 115 110 120 109 SC : 50 40 40 100 25 20 25 125 SD : 470 420 400 95 120 230 220 96 TX : 750 625 600 96 140 140 130 93 UT : 60 65 65 100 4 6 9 150 WA : 32 35 30 86 13 15 15 100 WI : 430 380 405 107 250 230 240 104 WY : 70 60 50 83 15 23 20 87 : US : 4,995 4,601 4,312 94 2,058 2,224 2,067 93 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes area planted in preceding fall. 2/ Intended area planted and to be planted and area to be harvested for grain in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. Barley: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 2/ : 2004/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 Acres ------------- Percent : AZ : 46 32 35 109 CA : 130 100 110 110 CO : 85 85 75 88 DE : 25 25 25 100 ID : 730 750 700 93 KS : 8 9 10 111 KY : 9 9 9 100 ME : 28 28 28 100 MD : 43 45 37 82 MI : 14 15 14 93 MN : 190 190 110 58 MT : 1,180 1,100 950 86 NE : 6 6 5 83 NV : 4 5 4 80 NJ : 4 4 4 100 NY : 11 14 15 107 NC : 25 20 20 100 ND : 1,600 2,050 1,800 88 OH : 7 7 5 71 OR : 78 70 62 89 PA : 70 75 70 93 SD : 80 75 70 93 UT : 70 45 50 111 VA : 75 75 50 67 WA : 350 320 290 91 WI : 55 55 45 82 WY : 85 90 90 100 : US : 5,008 5,299 4,683 88 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes area planted in preceding fall. 2/ Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. All Wheat: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 2/ : 2004/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 Acres -------------- Percent : AL : 150 150 120 80 AZ : 99 119 109 92 AR : 950 700 720 103 CA : 625 805 660 82 CO : 2,375 2,630 2,317 88 DE : 55 50 45 90 FL : 19 20 20 100 GA : 330 380 330 87 ID : 1,150 1,240 1,170 94 IL : 660 850 1,000 118 IN : 340 460 430 93 IA : 20 21 26 124 KS : 9,700 10,400 9,900 95 KY : 530 480 480 100 LA : 230 155 150 97 MD : 185 165 160 97 MI : 450 680 630 93 MN : 2,040 1,877 1,627 87 MS : 230 150 220 147 MO : 900 960 1,050 109 MT : 5,790 5,290 5,270 100 NE : 1,650 1,900 1,950 103 NV : 13 12 14 117 NJ : 38 31 28 90 NM : 480 500 470 94 NY : 120 130 100 77 NC : 600 530 630 119 ND : 9,080 8,630 8,440 98 OH : 860 1,060 900 85 OK : 6,200 6,600 6,400 97 OR : 945 1,115 1,020 91 PA : 190 175 140 80 SC : 200 200 190 95 SD : 3,030 3,028 3,220 106 TN : 470 430 400 93 TX : 6,400 6,600 6,100 92 UT : 155 175 153 87 VA : 230 210 180 86 WA : 2,450 2,400 2,280 95 WV : 12 12 8 67 WI : 208 212 247 117 WY : 159 168 158 94 : US : 60,318 61,700 59,462 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes area planted in preceding fall. 2/ Intended plantings for 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. Winter Wheat: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 : 2004/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 Acres -------------- Percent : AL : 150 150 120 80 AZ : 6 4 4 100 AR : 950 700 720 103 CA : 530 675 550 81 CO : 2,350 2,600 2,300 88 DE : 55 50 45 90 FL : 19 20 20 100 GA : 330 380 330 87 ID : 670 760 720 95 IL : 660 850 1,000 118 IN : 340 460 430 93 IA : 20 21 26 124 KS : 9,700 10,400 9,900 95 KY : 530 480 480 100 LA : 230 155 150 97 MD : 185 165 160 97 MI : 450 680 630 93 MN : 35 25 25 100 MS : 230 150 220 147 MO : 900 960 1,050 109 MT : 1,450 1,800 1,850 103 NE : 1,650 1,900 1,950 103 NV : 6 7 6 86 NJ : 38 31 28 90 NM : 480 500 470 94 NY : 120 130 100 77 NC : 600 530 630 119 ND : 80 130 240 185 OH : 860 1,060 900 85 OK : 6,200 6,600 6,400 97 OR : 800 970 870 90 PA : 190 175 140 80 SC : 200 200 190 95 SD : 1,300 1,600 1,700 106 TN : 470 430 400 93 TX : 6,400 6,600 6,100 92 UT : 140 160 140 88 VA : 230 210 180 86 WA : 1,850 1,850 1,800 97 WV : 12 12 8 67 WI : 200 205 240 117 WY : 150 160 150 94 : US : 41,766 44,945 43,372 97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes area planted in preceding fall. Durum Wheat: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 2/ : 2004/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 Acres -------------- Percent : AZ : 93 115 105 91 CA : 95 130 110 85 MN : 5 2 2 100 MT : 590 640 620 97 ND : 2,100 2,000 1,900 95 SD : 30 28 20 71 : US : 2,913 2,915 2,757 95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes area planted in preceding fall in AZ and CA. 2/ Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. Other Spring Wheat: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 1/ : 2004/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 Acres -------------- Percent : CO : 25 30 17 57 ID : 480 480 450 94 MN : 2,000 1,850 1,600 86 MT : 3,750 2,850 2,800 98 NV : 7 5 8 160 ND : 6,900 6,500 6,300 97 OR : 145 145 150 103 SD : 1,700 1,400 1,500 107 UT : 15 15 13 87 WA : 600 550 480 87 WI : 8 7 7 100 WY : 9 8 8 100 : US : 15,639 13,840 13,333 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. Rice: Area Planted by Class, State, and United States, 2002-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Area Planted and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 1/ : 2004/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 Acres ------------- Percent : Long Grain : AR : 1,350 1,300 1,400 108 CA : 7 7 6 86 LA : 530 435 510 117 MS : 255 235 235 100 MO : 190 175 185 106 TX : 205 180 190 106 : US : 2,537 2,332 2,526 108 : Medium Grain: AR : 165 165 160 97 CA : 500 460 510 111 LA : 10 20 20 100 MO : 0 1 1 100 TX : 1 1 2 200 : US : 676 647 693 107 : Short Grain : AR : 1 1 1 100 CA 2/ : 26 42 40 95 : US : 27 43 41 95 : All : AR : 1,516 1,466 1,561 106 CA : 533 509 556 109 LA : 540 455 530 116 MS : 255 235 235 100 MO : 190 176 186 106 TX : 206 181 192 106 : US : 3,240 3,022 3,260 108 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. 2/ Sweet rice acreage included in 2003 and 2004, but not previous years. All Hay: Area Harvested by State and United States, 2002-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 1/ : 2004/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 Acres ------------- Percent : AL : 825 780 800 103 AZ : 275 275 260 95 AR : 1,430 1,340 1,350 101 CA : 1,750 1,570 1,480 94 CO : 1,330 1,500 1,340 89 CT : 62 60 65 108 DE : 15 13 13 100 FL : 280 255 250 98 GA : 650 600 650 108 ID : 1,490 1,500 1,540 103 IL : 775 775 750 97 IN : 600 650 650 100 IA : 1,600 1,600 1,600 100 KS : 3,250 3,250 3,200 98 KY : 2,420 2,450 2,350 96 LA : 420 380 400 105 ME : 157 128 125 98 MD : 220 195 200 103 MA : 86 90 80 89 MI : 1,100 1,050 1,100 105 MN : 2,100 2,075 2,100 101 MS : 750 750 750 100 MO : 4,250 4,250 4,450 105 MT : 2,600 2,450 2,600 106 NE : 3,050 3,150 3,100 98 NV : 485 440 490 111 NH : 54 55 55 100 NJ : 120 120 120 100 NM : 360 300 300 100 NY : 1,710 1,850 1,850 100 NC : 750 778 760 98 ND : 3,300 2,950 2,900 98 OH : 1,320 1,350 1,400 104 OK : 3,150 2,810 2,700 96 OR : 1,115 1,115 1,105 99 PA : 1,730 1,650 1,750 106 RI : 8 8 8 100 SC : 340 340 300 88 SD : 3,850 4,300 4,400 102 TN : 1,980 2,030 2,000 99 TX : 5,450 5,240 5,300 101 UT : 715 700 700 100 VT : 240 235 240 102 VA : 1,390 1,280 1,390 109 WA : 820 810 800 99 WV : 570 545 560 103 WI : 2,050 2,100 2,200 105 WY : 950 1,200 1,200 100 : US : 63,942 63,342 63,731 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended area harvested in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. Soybeans: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 1/ : 2004/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 Acres ------------- Percent : AL : 170 170 180 106 AR : 2,950 2,920 3,050 104 DE : 190 180 200 111 FL : 10 13 15 115 GA : 160 190 230 121 IL : 10,600 10,300 10,300 100 IN : 5,800 5,450 5,450 100 IA : 10,450 10,600 10,700 101 KS : 2,750 2,600 2,700 104 KY : 1,310 1,250 1,250 100 LA : 800 760 980 129 MD : 490 435 475 109 MI : 2,050 2,000 2,000 100 MN : 7,200 7,500 7,700 103 MS : 1,440 1,440 1,650 115 MO : 5,050 5,000 5,100 102 NE : 4,700 4,550 4,650 102 NJ : 100 90 95 106 NY : 145 140 190 136 NC : 1,370 1,450 1,500 103 ND : 2,670 3,150 3,700 117 OH : 4,750 4,300 4,350 101 OK : 280 270 300 111 PA : 405 380 390 103 SC : 435 430 480 112 SD : 4,250 4,250 4,100 96 TN : 1,160 1,150 1,180 103 TX : 230 200 270 135 VA : 490 500 510 102 WV : 18 16 16 100 WI : 1,540 1,720 1,700 99 : US : 73,963 73,404 75,411 103 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. Peanuts: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 1/ : 2004/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- 1,000 Acres --------------- Percent : AL : 185.0 190.0 195.0 103 FL : 96.0 125.0 140.0 112 GA : 510.0 545.0 565.0 104 NM : 18.0 18.0 16.0 89 NC : 101.0 101.0 102.0 101 OK : 60.0 37.0 30.0 81 SC : 10.0 19.0 33.0 174 TX : 315.0 275.0 250.0 91 VA : 58.0 34.0 35.0 103 : US : 1,353.0 1,344.0 1,366.0 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. Sunflowers: Area Planted by Type, State, and United States, 2002-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Varietal : Area Planted Type and :--------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 1/ : 2004/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Acres ------------ Percent : Oil : CO : 95 95 70 74 KS : 200 170 170 100 MN : 40 55 40 73 NE : 47 51 40 78 ND : 1,150 1,060 1,000 94 SD : 535 475 380 80 TX : 10 17 20 118 : Oth Sts 2/3/ : 49 75 75 100 : US : 2,126 1,998 1,795 90 : Non-Oil : CO : 35 35 25 71 KS : 15 23 20 87 MN : 30 35 35 100 NE : 13 15 15 100 ND : 220 150 120 80 SD : 105 30 30 100 TX : 25 42 30 71 : Oth Sts 2/3/ : 12 16 16 100 : US : 455 346 291 84 : All : CO : 130 130 95 73 KS : 215 193 190 98 MN : 70 90 75 83 NE : 60 66 55 83 ND : 1,370 1,210 1,120 93 SD : 640 505 410 81 TX : 35 59 50 85 : Oth Sts 2/3/ : 61 91 91 100 : US : 2,581 2,344 2,086 89 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. 2/ 2004 estimates carried forward from 2003. First 2004 estimate will be published in "Acreage" on June 30, 2004. 3/ Other States include CA, GA, IL, LA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, UT, WA, WI, and WY. Canola: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 1/ : 2004/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Acres ----------- Percent : MN : 80 57 60 105 ND : 1,300 970 850 88 : Oth Sts 2/3/ : 80 55 55 100 : US : 1,460 1,082 965 89 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. 2/ 2004 estimates carried forward from 2003. First 2004 estimate will be published in "Acreage" on June 30, 2004. 3/ Other States include AL, AZ, CA, GA, ID, IN, KS, MI, MT, NY, OR, PA, SC, SD, and WA. Cotton: Area Planted by Type, State, and United States, 2002-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Type : Area Planted and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 1/ : 2004/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- 1,000 Acres -------------- Percent : Upland : AL : 590.0 525.0 550.0 105 AZ : 215.0 215.0 220.0 102 AR : 960.0 980.0 1,050.0 107 CA : 480.0 550.0 560.0 102 FL : 120.0 94.0 105.0 112 GA : 1,450.0 1,300.0 1,350.0 104 KS : 80.0 90.0 130.0 144 LA : 520.0 525.0 600.0 114 MS : 1,170.0 1,110.0 1,100.0 99 MO : 380.0 400.0 410.0 103 NM : 54.0 56.0 60.0 107 NC : 940.0 810.0 790.0 98 OK : 200.0 180.0 210.0 117 SC : 290.0 220.0 260.0 118 TN : 565.0 560.0 590.0 105 TX : 5,600.0 5,600.0 6,100.0 109 VA : 100.0 89.0 90.0 101 : US : 13,714.0 13,304.0 14,175.0 107 : Amer-Pima : AZ : 8.3 3.0 2.6 87 CA : 210.0 150.0 200.0 133 NM : 7.1 6.1 8.0 131 TX : 18.5 20.0 16.0 80 : US : 243.9 179.1 226.6 127 : All : AL : 590.0 525.0 550.0 105 AZ : 223.3 218.0 222.6 102 AR : 960.0 980.0 1,050.0 107 CA : 690.0 700.0 760.0 109 FL : 120.0 94.0 105.0 112 GA : 1,450.0 1,300.0 1,350.0 104 KS : 80.0 90.0 130.0 144 LA : 520.0 525.0 600.0 114 MS : 1,170.0 1,110.0 1,100.0 99 MO : 380.0 400.0 410.0 103 NM : 61.1 62.1 68.0 110 NC : 940.0 810.0 790.0 98 OK : 200.0 180.0 210.0 117 SC : 290.0 220.0 260.0 118 TN : 565.0 560.0 590.0 105 TX : 5,618.5 5,620.0 6,116.0 109 VA : 100.0 89.0 90.0 101 : US : 13,957.9 13,483.1 14,401.6 107 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. Sugarbeets: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 2/ : 2004/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 Acres -------------- Percent : CA : 50.2 50.8 50.5 99 CO : 43.9 28.6 42.0 147 ID : 212.0 208.0 197.0 95 MI : 179.0 179.0 173.0 97 MN : 505.0 492.0 486.0 99 MT : 58.0 51.7 54.0 104 NE : 57.0 45.3 45.0 99 ND : 265.0 259.0 255.0 98 OH : 1.9 1.9 1.9 100 OR : 11.3 9.7 11.0 113 WA : 4.0 4.4 4.2 95 WY : 40.0 35.0 39.0 111 : US : 1,427.3 1,365.4 1,358.6 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except CA. In CA, relates to year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in central CA and to year of planting for overwintered beets in central and southern CA. 2/ Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. Tobacco: Area Harvested by State and United States, 2002-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 1/ : 2004/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------------- Acres ----------------- Percent : CT : 2,000 2,200 2,350 107 FL : 4,600 4,400 4,200 95 GA : 26,500 27,000 24,000 89 IN : 4,000 4,200 4,300 102 KY : 111,100 112,300 113,600 101 MD : 1,200 1,500 1,000 67 MA : 1,160 1,230 1,150 93 MO : 1,400 1,300 1,300 100 NC : 168,300 159,700 158,500 99 OH : 5,500 5,300 5,800 109 PA : 3,400 3,700 4,200 114 SC : 30,500 30,000 27,000 90 TN : 35,900 34,140 33,380 98 VA : 30,000 26,220 30,770 117 WV : 1,300 1,200 1,300 108 WI : 1,450 1,820 1,700 93 : US : 428,310 416,210 414,550 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended area harvested in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. Tobacco: Area Harvested by Class, Type, State, and United States, 2002-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested Class and Type :-------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 1/ : 2004/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- Acres --------------- Percent : Class 1, Flue-cured : Type 11, Old Belts : NC : 43,000 40,000 40,000 100 VA : 22,000 19,000 23,000 121 US : 65,000 59,000 63,000 107 Type 12, Eastern NC : Belt : NC : 98,000 94,000 93,000 99 Type 13, NC Border & : SC Belt : NC : 21,000 20,000 20,000 100 SC : 30,500 30,000 27,000 90 US : 51,500 50,000 47,000 94 Type 14, GA-FL Belt : FL : 4,600 4,400 4,200 95 GA : 26,500 27,000 24,000 89 US : 31,100 31,400 28,200 90 Total 11-14 : 245,600 234,400 231,200 99 Class 2, Fire-cured : Type 21, VA Belt : VA : 730 650 700 108 Type 22, Eastern : District : KY : 2,450 2,500 2,600 104 TN : 5,000 5,200 5,400 104 US : 7,450 7,700 8,000 104 Type 23, Western : District : KY : 2,400 2,400 2,500 104 TN : 390 400 420 105 US : 2,790 2,800 2,920 104 Total 21-23 : 10,970 11,150 11,620 104 Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3A, Light : Air-cured : Type 31, Burley : IN : 4,000 4,200 4,300 102 KY : 103,000 104,000 105,000 101 MO : 1,400 1,300 1,300 100 NC : 6,300 5,700 5,500 96 OH : 5,500 5,300 5,800 109 TN : 30,000 28,000 27,000 96 VA : 7,200 6,500 7,000 108 WV : 1,300 1,200 1,300 108 US : 158,700 156,200 157,200 101 Type 32, Southern MD : Belt : MD : 1,200 1,500 1,000 67 PA : 1,300 1,300 2,000 154 US : 2,500 2,800 3,000 107 Total 31-32 : 161,200 159,000 160,200 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Tobacco: Area Harvested by Class, Type, State, and United States, 2002-2004 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested Class and Type :-------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 1/ : 2004/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- Acres --------------- Percent : Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3B, Dark : Air-cured : Type 35, One Sucker : Belt : KY : 2,100 2,200 2,300 105 TN : 510 540 560 104 US : 2,610 2,740 2,860 104 Type 36, Green River : Belt : KY : 1,150 1,200 1,200 100 Type 37, VA Sun-cured : Belt : VA : 70 70 70 100 Total 35-37 : 3,830 4,010 4,130 103 Class 4, Cigar Filler : Type 41, PA Seedleaf : PA : 2,100 2,400 2,200 92 Class 5, Cigar Binder : Class 5A, CT Valley : Binder : Type 51, CT Valley : Broadleaf : CT : 1,350 1,400 1,500 107 MA : 850 950 850 89 US : 2,200 2,350 2,350 100 Class 5B, WI Binder : Type 54, Southern WI : WI : 1,150 1,400 1,300 93 Type 55, Northern WI : WI : 300 420 400 95 Total 54-55 : 1,450 1,820 1,700 93 Total 51-55 : 3,650 4,170 4,050 97 Class 6, Cigar Wrapper : Type 61, CT Valley : Shade-grown : CT : 650 800 850 106 MA : 310 280 300 107 US : 960 1,080 1,150 106 All Cigar Types : Total 41-61 : 6,710 7,650 7,400 97 : All Tobacco : 428,310 416,210 414,550 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended area harvested in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 2/ : 2004/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 Acres -------------- Percent : CA : 92.0 77.0 73.0 95 CO : 92.0 80.0 85.0 106 ID : 95.0 75.0 80.0 107 KS : 21.0 12.0 6.0 50 MI : 270.0 170.0 180.0 106 MN : 170.0 115.0 120.0 104 MT : 26.9 13.0 14.0 108 NE : 185.0 155.0 145.0 94 NM : 8.5 10.0 10.0 100 NY : 25.0 25.0 23.0 92 ND : 790.0 540.0 480.0 89 OR : 9.8 7.0 5.0 71 SD : 21.0 8.0 7.0 88 TX : 37.5 50.0 27.0 54 UT : 1.8 5.6 6.0 107 WA : 44.5 27.5 35.0 127 WI : 7.7 6.0 6.0 100 WY : 32.0 30.0 31.0 103 : US : 1,929.7 1,406.1 1,333.0 95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Excludes beans grown for garden seed. 2/ Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. Sweet Potatoes: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 1/ : 2004/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 Acres ------------ Percent : AL : 2.8 2.8 2.6 93 CA : 10.4 10.4 11.0 106 LA : 21.0 19.0 20.0 105 MS : 16.0 14.0 15.0 107 NJ : 1.2 1.1 1.1 100 NC : 40.0 43.0 44.0 102 SC : 1.7 1.4 1.0 71 TX : 2.8 3.4 3.2 94 VA : 0.5 0.5 0.4 80 : US : 96.4 95.6 98.3 103 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. Biotechnology Varieties The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts the March Agricultural Survey in all States each year. Randomly selected farmers across the United States were asked what they intend to plant during the upcoming growing season. Questions include whether or not farmers intend to plant corn, soybean, or upland cotton seed that, through biotechnology, is resistant to herbicides, insects, or both. The biotechnology (biotech) questions were asked for the first time in March 2000. The States published individually in the following tables represent 82 percent of all corn planted acres, 89 percent of all soybean planted acres, and 81 percent of all upland cotton planted acres. Conventionally bred herbicide resistant varieties were excluded. Insect resistant varieties include only those containing bacillus thuringiensis (Bt). These Bt varieties include those that contain more than one gene that can resist different types of insects. Stacked gene varieties only include those containing biotech traits for both herbicide and insect resistance. The acreage estimates are subject to sampling variability because all operations planting biotech varieties are not included in the sample. The variability for the 48 corn States, as measured by the relative standard error, is approximately 1.5 percent for all biotech varieties, 2.4 percent for insect resistant (Bt) only varieties, 3.5 percent for herbicide resistant only varieties, and 5.0 percent for stacked gene varieties. This means that chances are approximately 95 out of 100 that survey estimates will be within plus or minus 3.0 percent for all biotech varieties, 4.8 percent for insect resistant (Bt) only varieties, 7.0 percent for herbicide resistant varieties, and 10.0 percent for stacked gene varieties. Variability for the 31 soybean States is approximately 0.6 percent for herbicide resistant varieties. Variability for the 17 upland cotton States is approximately 1.5 percent for all biotech varieties, 6.1 percent for insect resistant (Bt) only varieties, 3.5 percent for herbicide resistant only varieties, and 3.2 percent for stacked gene varieties. Corn: Biotechnology Varieties by State and United States, Percent of All Corn Planted, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Insect Resistant (Bt) : Herbicide Resistant State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : IL : 23 28 4 5 IN : 8 10 7 8 IA : 33 37 8 11 KS : 25 30 17 18 MI : 18 16 14 16 MN : 31 30 15 19 MO : 32 32 9 11 NE : 36 41 11 15 OH : 6 10 3 5 SD : 34 32 24 28 WI : 21 24 9 13 : Oth Sts 1/: 17 20 17 18 : US : 25 27 11 14 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Stacked Gene Varieties : All Biotech Varieties :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : IL : 1 2 28 35 IN : 1 1 16 19 IA : 4 5 45 53 KS : 5 5 47 53 MI : 3 3 35 35 MN : 7 8 53 57 MO : 1 4 42 47 NE : 5 8 52 64 OH : * 1 9 16 SD : 17 20 75 80 WI : 2 2 32 39 : Oth Sts 1/: 2 4 36 42 : US : 4 5 40 46 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Data rounds to less than 0.5 percent. 1/ Other States includes all other States in the Corn estimating program. Upland Cotton: Biotechnology Varieties by State and United States, Percent of Upland Cotton Planted, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Insect Resistant (Bt) : Herbicide Resistant State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 24 32 25 26 CA : 9 5 27 36 GA : 14 13 32 19 LA : 30 41 15 5 MS : 15 13 16 13 NC : 16 14 29 29 TX : 8 18 39 34 : Oth Sts 1/: 18 17 32 28 : US : 14 18 32 28 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Stacked Gene Varieties : All Biotech Varieties :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 46 37 95 95 CA : 3 3 39 44 GA : 47 61 93 93 LA : 46 46 91 92 MS : 61 69 92 95 NC : 48 49 93 92 TX : 6 6 53 58 : Oth Sts 1/: 38 44 88 89 : US : 27 30 73 76 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States includes all other States in the Upland Cotton estimating program. Soybeans: Biotechnology Varieties by State and United States, Percent of All Soybeans Planted, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Herbicide Resistant Only : All Biotech Varieties State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 84 92 84 92 IL : 77 82 77 82 IN : 88 88 88 88 IA : 84 89 84 89 KS : 87 91 87 91 MI : 73 75 73 75 MN : 79 83 79 83 MS : 89 94 89 94 MO : 83 88 83 88 NE : 86 89 86 89 ND : 74 81 74 81 OH : 74 77 74 77 SD : 91 96 91 96 WI : 84 85 84 85 : Oth Sts 1/: 76 82 76 82 : US : 81 86 81 86 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States includes all other States in the Soybean estimating program. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 5,299.0 4,683.0 4,688.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 78,736.0 79,004.0 71,139.0 Corn for Silage : 6,528.0 Hay, All : 63,342.0 63,731.0 Alfalfa : 23,578.0 All Other : 39,764.0 Oats : 4,601.0 4,312.0 2,224.0 2,067.0 Proso Millet : 730.0 620.0 Rice : 3,022.0 3,260.0 2,997.0 Rye : 1,368.0 339.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,420.0 8,600.0 7,798.0 Sorghum for Silage : 343.0 Wheat, All : 61,700.0 59,462.0 52,839.0 Winter : 44,945.0 43,372.0 36,541.0 Durum : 2,915.0 2,757.0 2,869.0 Other Spring : 13,840.0 13,333.0 13,429.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,082.0 965.0 1,068.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 595.0 583.0 Mustard Seed : 110.0 107.0 Peanuts : 1,344.0 1,366.0 1,312.0 Rapeseed : 1.3 1.2 Safflower : 221.0 212.0 Soybeans for Beans : 73,404.0 75,411.0 72,321.0 Sunflowers : 2,344.0 2,086.0 2,197.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,483.1 14,401.6 12,058.0 Upland : 13,304.0 14,175.0 11,880.0 Amer-Pima : 179.1 226.6 178.0 Sugarbeets : 1,365.4 1,358.6 1,347.9 Sugarcane : 997.8 Tobacco : 416.2 414.6 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 21.1 15.6 Dry Edible Beans : 1,406.1 1,333.0 1,346.9 Dry Edible Peas : 337.5 328.5 Lentils : 246.0 237.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 5.9 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.2 Hops : 28.7 Peppermint Oil : 78.2 Potatoes, All : 1,275.0 1,250.3 Winter : 14.6 14.2 14.3 14.0 Spring : 88.6 84.7 Summer : 64.2 59.3 Fall : 1,107.6 1,092.0 Spearmint Oil : 15.8 Sweet Potatoes : 95.6 98.3 92.4 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 58.9 276,087 Corn for Grain : " : 142.2 10,113,887 Corn for Silage : Ton : 16.2 105,864 Hay, All : " : 2.48 157,123 Alfalfa : " : 3.24 76,307 All Other : " : 2.03 80,816 Oats : Bu : 65.0 144,649 Proso Millet : " : 18.5 11,450 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,645 199,157 Rye : Bu : 27.3 9,254 Sorghum for Grain : " : 52.7 411,237 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 10.4 3,552 Wheat, All : Bu : 44.2 2,336,526 Winter : " : 46.7 1,707,069 Durum : " : 33.7 96,637 Other Spring : " : 39.7 532,820 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,416 1,512,250 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 6,694.0 Flaxseed : Bu : 17.9 10,426 Mustard Seed : Lb : 723 77,372 Peanuts : " : 3,159 4,144,150 Rapeseed : " : 949 1,139 Safflower : " : 1,286 272,555 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 33.4 2,417,565 Sunflowers : Lb : 1,213 2,665,226 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 725 18,224.0 Upland 2/ : " : 719 17,795.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,157 429.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 22.7 30,605 Sugarcane : " : 34.6 34,503 Tobacco : Lb : 1,997 831,204 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,115 174 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,672 22,515 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,584 5,202 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,030 2,442 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 673 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,470 8,700 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 37,500 6,000 Hops : " : 1,903 54,565.1 Peppermint Oil : " : 89 6,924 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 367 459,045 Winter : " : 282 274 4,027 3,840 Spring : " : 288 24,433 Summer : " : 324 19,199 Fall : " : 377 411,386 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 113 1,778 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 172 15,921 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 5,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,144,450 1,895,160 1,897,190 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,863,670 31,972,130 28,789,240 Corn for Silage : 2,641,820 Hay, All 3/ : 25,633,870 25,791,300 Alfalfa : 9,541,780 All Other : 16,092,090 Oats : 1,861,980 1,745,020 900,030 836,490 Proso Millet : 295,420 250,910 Rice : 1,222,970 1,319,290 1,212,860 Rye : 553,620 137,190 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,812,180 3,480,330 3,155,770 Sorghum for Silage : 138,810 Wheat, All 3/ :24,969,370 24,063,680 21,383,410 Winter :18,188,790 17,552,210 14,787,780 Durum : 1,179,670 1,115,730 1,161,060 Other Spring : 5,600,910 5,395,730 5,434,580 : Oilseeds : Canola : 437,870 390,530 432,210 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 240,790 235,930 Mustard Seed : 44,520 43,300 Peanuts : 543,900 552,810 530,950 Rapeseed : 530 490 Safflower : 89,440 85,790 Soybeans for Beans :29,705,860 30,518,080 29,267,590 Sunflowers : 948,590 844,180 889,100 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,456,480 5,828,180 4,879,750 Upland : 5,384,000 5,736,480 4,807,720 Amer-Pima : 72,480 91,700 72,030 Sugarbeets : 552,560 549,810 545,480 Sugarcane : 403,800 Tobacco : 168,440 167,760 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 8,540 6,310 Dry Edible Beans : 569,030 539,450 545,080 Dry Edible Peas : 136,580 132,940 Lentils : 99,550 95,910 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,390 Ginger Root (HI) : 60 Hops : 11,600 Peppermint Oil : 31,650 Potatoes, All 3/ : 515,980 505,980 Winter : 5,910 5,750 5,790 5,670 Spring : 35,860 34,280 Summer : 25,980 24,000 Fall : 448,230 441,920 Spearmint Oil : 6,390 Sweet Potatoes : 38,690 39,780 37,390 Taro (HI) 4/ : 170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.17 6,011,080 Corn for Grain : 8.92 256,904,560 Corn for Silage : 36.35 96,038,210 Hay, All 2/ : 5.56 142,539,590 Alfalfa : 7.25 69,224,550 All Other : 4.56 73,315,040 Oats : 2.33 2,099,570 Proso Millet : 1.03 259,680 Rice : 7.45 9,033,610 Rye : 1.71 235,060 Sorghum for Grain : 3.31 10,445,900 Sorghum for Silage : 23.21 3,222,320 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.97 63,589,820 Winter : 3.14 46,458,800 Durum : 2.27 2,630,030 Other Spring : 2.67 14,500,980 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.59 685,950 Cottonseed 3/ : 6,072,690 Flaxseed : 1.12 264,830 Mustard Seed : 0.81 35,100 Peanuts : 3.54 1,879,750 Rapeseed : 1.06 520 Safflower : 1.44 123,630 Soybeans for Beans : 2.25 65,795,340 Sunflowers : 1.36 1,208,930 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.81 3,967,810 Upland : 0.81 3,874,400 Amer-Pima : 1.30 93,400 Sugarbeets : 50.90 27,764,390 Sugarcane : 77.52 31,300,600 Tobacco : 2.24 377,030 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.25 7,890 Dry Edible Beans : 1.87 1,021,260 Dry Edible Peas : 1.77 235,960 Lentils : 1.15 110,770 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 30,530 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.65 3,950 Ginger Root (HI) : 42.03 2,720 Hops : 2.13 24,750 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,140 Potatoes, All 2/ : 41.15 20,821,930 Winter : 31.56 30.74 182,660 174,180 Spring : 32.33 1,108,260 Summer : 36.29 870,850 Fall : 42.23 18,660,160 Spearmint Oil : 0.13 810 Sweet Potatoes : 19.31 722,160 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,270 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Winter Weather Review Highlights: February precipitation fell in drought areas of the Plains, West, and upper Midwest, reversing a prevailing pattern. Significant February precipitation also soaked the South, helping to dent or erase a 2-month dry spell. Winter wheat on the southern Plains was among the greatest beneficiaries of the late-winter soil moisture improvements, although major dust storms on December 15 and February 19 exhibited the seriousness of the region's long-term drought. Farther west, a late-season boost in high-elevation snow packs across the Great Basin, Intermountain West, and Southwest improved spring and summer runoff prospects but provided only limited relief from long-term drought and correspondingly low reservoir levels. The only region cold throughout the winter months was the Southeast, where temperatures generally ranged from 2 to 4 degrees F below normal. Meanwhile in the Northeast, near-normal temperatures in December and February partially offset bitterly cold January weather. Farther west, winter opened on a mild note across the Plains and Midwest, followed by intermittent cold blasts in January and February. Nevertheless, winter temperatures averaged up to 4 degrees F above normal on the High Plains and as much as 6 degrees F above normal at a few locations in the upper Midwest. The West also experienced mild weather for most of December, followed by persistently colder-than-normal conditions for the remainder of the winter. Winter temperatures averaged as much as 6 degrees F below normal in portions of the Intermountain West. December: Storms repeatedly battered the Northeast during the first 3 weeks of December, resulting in frequent bouts of heavy rain, snow, and high winds. Precipitation highlights were scarce, however, elsewhere east of the Rockies. Winter wheat areas in the lower Midwest retained plenty of moisture from previously heavy rainfall, while Southern winter grains and cool-season pastures received enough rain to promote generally normal development. Farther west, the Plains' winter wheat situation remained far from ideal. Although the Plains escaped December with relatively minor temperature fluctuations, subsoil moisture was limited. Occasional snowfall provided a boost in topsoil moisture on the northern and central Plains, but exceptional dryness persisted on the southern High Plains, where high winds on December 15 triggered a major dust storm. Farther west, wet weather along the Pacific Coast gradually pushed inland, especially toward month's end. Wetness in the West Coast States, initially confined to northern and central California and the Pacific Northwest, reached southern California's burned areas (from the October wildfires) by December 25, triggering several major mudslides. Farther inland, late-month storminess was more welcomed across the Intermountain West, where reservoir storage remained significantly below normal due to a multi-year drought. Below-normal monthly temperatures were confined to the East, where an early- to mid-December cold snap helped to condition Florida's citrus trees. The cold spell culminated on December 21, featuring scattered temperatures near the freezing mark as far south as the northern Everglades. However, winter agricultural interests in central and southern Florida incurred minimal damage. Mild weather overspread the East toward the end of December, while most of the remainder of the Nation experienced a continuation of above-normal temperatures. An exception was the Southwest, where colder air at month's end brought the lowest temperatures in several years. On December 28 and 29, some winter crop producers in southern California and the Southwest had to take protective measures. January: The coldest weather in many years gripped the Northeast, accompanied by occasional snowfall in the northern Mid-Atlantic States and relentless snow squalls downwind of the Great Lakes. While bitterly cold conditions were persistent in the Northeast, cold air made only two significant surges across the remainder of the United States. Across most of the Plains, the most impressive cold outbreak struck from January 4-6, followed by the Midwest's coldest spell toward month's end. On the Plains, significant precipitation was confined to a few relatively small geographic areas. Much-needed precipitation, mostly rain, spread onto the southern Plains from January 15-17, followed by a major snowstorm across the east-central Plains on January 25-26. Farther north, the last week of January featured heavy snow in northeastern Montana and parts of North Dakota. However, mostly dry conditions persisted on the High Plains from eastern Colorado and western Kansas northward into southern Montana, leaving a portion of the wheat crop regularly exposed to gusty winds and temperature fluctuations. In contrast, heavy rain soaked the Ohio Valley early in the month, causing some flooding in lowlands planted to winter wheat. Elsewhere in the eastern Corn Belt, soil moisture remained adequate to locally excessive. Farther west, however, unfavorably dry conditions persisted across the northwestern Corn Belt, although late-month snowfall provided beneficial moisture. Meanwhile, January precipitation was well below normal from the Delta to the southern Atlantic region, although the combination of cool weather and sporadic showers limited stress on pastures and winter grains. January rainfall was heavier in the western Gulf Coast region, while late-month downpours reduced irrigation demands in Florida's winter agricultural areas. In the West, mild, tranquil weather prevailed for most of the month, following some early-January storminess. However, cold air remained trapped in many snow-covered valleys across the Intermountain West, resulting in persistently cold, foggy weather and air-stagnation problems. Prospects for winter grains continued to improve in the Northwest, where widespread precipitation and a late-month warming trend melted snow and boosted soil moisture reserves. January temperatures averaged as much as 5 degrees F above normal on the central and southern High Plains and across the South-Central United States. In contrast, readings ranged from 3 to 7 degrees F below normal in eastern Montana and North Dakota and were slightly below normal across the remainder of the northern Plains, northern Corn Belt, and southern Atlantic States. Even colder weather was noted in parts of the Intermountain West, where temperatures averaged at least 5 degrees F below normal in some valley locations, and the Northeast, where readings ranging from 5 to 10 degrees F below normal were widespread. February: Important changes in the Nation's weather provided drought relief across the West, central and southern Plains, and upper Midwest. In addition, heavy precipitation across the South ended a 2-month dry spell. Western storminess boosted high-elevation snow packs and improved spring and summer runoff prospects in the Great Basin, Intermountain West, central and southern Rockies, and Southwest. Meanwhile, water-supply prospects remained favorable in California and the Northwest. Farther east, most winter wheat areas on the Plains benefited from increasingly wet weather, despite underlying subsoil moisture shortages. Some of the heaviest precipitation fell on the southern Plains, where a late-month warming trend promoted some wheat and pasture development. However, pockets of dryness persisted farther north, most notably across parts of Montana and the central High Plains. Elsewhere, the northern and western Corn Belt received substantial rain and snow, reducing long-term precipitation deficits. In contrast, mostly dry weather across the southern and eastern Corn Belt helped to eliminate pockets of excessive wetness. Across the South, a steady procession of storms aided pastures and winter grains but slowed pre-planting activities. Fieldwork delays were most pronounced west of the Delta, where monthly precipitation totaled more than 200 percent of normal. Below-normal temperatures prevailed across the southern two-thirds of the Nation, excluding southern Florida, where near-normal readings prevailed. Chilly conditions were most pronounced from the Great Basin to the southern Rockies, where temperatures averaged as much as 8 degrees F below normal. In contrast, near- to slightly above-normal temperatures were observed across the Nation's northern tier. An exception was eastern Montana, where record-high snow depths helped to hold readings as much as 6 degrees F below normal. Winter Agricultural Summary Temperatures in the Corn Belt were above normal in December, but below normal through January and February. Precipitation was light across the northern and western parts of the region but moderate in the Ohio Valley. Snow cover accumulated and melted with fluctuating temperatures but remained mostly adequate for protecting winter wheat. The northern and central Great Plains were very dry through most of the winter, though February brought light rain and some snowfall to parts of the region. Periods of unseasonably warm weather alternated with periods of extremely low temperatures. The warm periods melted much of the protective snow cover, providing some moisture for winter wheat but leaving the crop exposed to subsequent cold snaps. In the southern Great Plains, dry weather through the first half of the winter gave way to moderate but frequent precipitation through the end of February. Winter wheat recovered from what was thought to be severe drought stress, though some acreage was too far gone to benefit from the rain. By the end of February, corn, cotton, and sorghum producers in southern Texas had begun planting, but wet conditions limited progress. The Mississippi Delta and Southeast had a wet, cold winter. Temperatures were consistently below normal throughout the season, providing beneficial chill hours to Florida's citrus trees. Freezing temperatures reached as far south as the Gulf Coast and central Florida on several occasions but did little damage to the citrus-growing area. Precipitation was moderate through December and January but heavy throughout February, particularly along the Gulf Coast and in the Mississippi Delta. Field preparation activities were severely hampered by wet conditions and many livestock producers reported problems with mud. Along the northern and central Atlantic Coast, temperatures were below normal in January but near normal for the remainder of the season. Precipitation was light to moderate, with much of it in the form of snow and ice. Heavy snow covered the Northeast through most of the winter. Temperatures in the Rocky Mountains alternated between above normal and below normal, resulting in variable and spotty snow cover across the northern and central parts of the region. Precipitation was light to moderate and widespread across the northern and central areas, while dry conditions prevailed in the south. Precipitation was heavy along the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest, but light in the crop-producing areas farther inland. Temperatures were mild through most of the winter, except in early January, when temperatures fell to well below normal. Snow cover in the region was mostly adequate for protecting winter wheat. In the Great Basin, mild December temperatures yielded to below-normal temperatures through the remainder of winter, with extremely cold weather in the first half of February. Conditions were mostly dry throughout the season. Precipitation was heavy in northern parts of California, but southern parts of the State remained mostly dry. Temperatures stayed near normal across the State. Corn: Growers intend to plant 79.0 million acres of corn for all purposes in 2004, up fractionally from both 2002 and 2003. Expected acreage is up from last year throughout much of the Corn Belt as growers are hoping to take advantage of higher corn prices. However, most States in the Southeast and southern Great Plains are intending to decrease their corn plantings as producers are switching to soybeans and cotton due to more favorable prices relative to corn. Expected acreage is down in Wisconsin as good winter weather conditions protected the alfalfa and winter wheat stands, resulting in lower demands for additional forage compared with last year. This, combined with good soybean prices, contributed to the decreased intended corn plantings in Wisconsin. Farmers intend to plant 46 percent of their acreage with varieties developed using biotechnology, up 6 percentage points from 2003. If these intentions are realized, 27 percent of the acreage will be planted with varieties containing bacillus thuringiensis (Bt), up 2 points from last year. Fourteen percent of the acreage will be planted with herbicide resistant varieties developed using biotechnology, up 3 points from 2003. Stacked gene varieties, those containing both insect and herbicide resistance, will be planted on 5 percent of the acreage, up 1 point from the previous year. Sorghum: The 2004 intended sorghum acreage planted for all purposes is estimated at 8.60 million acres, down 9 percent from last year. Sorghum acres declined or remained the same as last year in all States except California, Colorado, and South Dakota. The largest acreage declines are expected by growers in Texas and Kansas. In Texas, the intended sorghum area of 2.80 million acres is down 12 percent from the previous year. Field preparation and early plantings have been delayed due to early March rains in central and eastern Texas. Kansas producers intend to plant 3.40 million acres, down 4 percent from 2003. In South Dakota, where drought conditions have affected areas of marginal cropland, and with sorghum better suited to withstand dry conditions, the intended sorghum acreage of 350,000 acres is up 30 percent from last year. Colorado is expecting 340,000 acres, an increase of 26 percent from 2003, depending upon favorable weather conditions. Oats: Acres seeded and to be seeded for the 2004 crop year are expected to total 4.31 million acres down 6 percent from last year's planted area. Growers expect to harvest 2.07 million acres for grain, down 7 percent from the 2003 harvested acreage of 2.22 million. States in the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley, and central Rocky Mountains expect to plant fewer acres compared to last year. Of the States expecting increases in planted acreage, California expects to plant 280,000 acres, up 8 percent from last year, and Wisconsin intends to plant 405,000 acres, up 7 percent from 2003. Barley: Growers intend to plant 4.68 million acres for 2004, down 12 percent from last year. North Dakota's expected acreage, at 1.80 million, is also 12 percent below their 2003 planted area. Producers in Montana intend to plant 950,000 acres, down 14 percent from last year and the fewest since 1953. Idaho's intended acreage, at 700,000, is down 7 percent from 2003, while Washington's expected 290,000 acres is the fewest since 1974. Many Minnesota growers are planning to switch to corn or soybeans, and their intended barley acreage is down 42 percent, to 110,000 acres. In California, however, producers intend to plant 10 percent more acres than last year. Winter Wheat: Planted area for the 2004 crop is 43.4 million acres, down 3 percent from 2003. Of the total, about 30.9 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 8.3 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 4.2 million acres are White Winter. Moisture shortages remain a concern in the Plains States, especially in Kansas and Colorado where winter wheat condition declined during the winter. Acreage declined from last year across most of the country, except in the northern Great Plains, western Corn Belt, and parts of the Delta. The largest acreage declines are in the southern Great Plains, where dry fall conditions persisted during seeding. Durum Wheat: Area seeded to Durum wheat is expected to total 2.76 million acres, down 5 percent from 2003. Seeding in the San Joaquin Valley of California progressed rapidly from October to December. Planting began in California's Imperial Valley in late November and continued into March with no major problems reported. Other Spring Wheat: Growers intend to plant 13.3 million acres this year, down 4 percent from 2003. Of the total, about 12.7 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. All major producing States intend to plant fewer acres than last year, except South Dakota. The largest declines are expected in Minnesota and North Dakota where growers continue to shift wheat acreage to corn and soybeans. Growers in Idaho intend to plant their lowest acreage since 1988. Rice: Area intended for rice in 2004 is estimated at 3.26 million acres, up 8 percent from 2003 and up 1 percent from 2002. All producing States intend to plant more acres to rice in 2004 with the exception of Mississippi which intends to equal their 2003 acreage. Long grain intended acreage, representing 78 percent of the total, is up 8 percent from last year. Medium grain intended acreage is up 7 percent from 2003 and represents 21 percent of the total. Area intended for short grain varieties declined 5 percent from 2003 and represents 1 percent of the total. Hay: Producers expect to harvest 63.7 million acres of all hay in 2004, up 1 percent from last year. Adequate soil moisture in most of Texas, lower Mississippi Delta, and Great Lakes States enhanced producers expectations to harvest more hay. Extreme dry conditions have left soil moisture very short and water supplies are expected to be inadequate in the central Great Plains and central Rocky Mountains, which decreased harvest intentions. In California, reduced water availability has lowered expected hay acreage in 2004. Soybeans: Growers intend to plant an estimated 75.4 million acres, up 3 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the largest planted area on record and a rebound from the three year decline in acreage. Of the 31 soybean estimating States, producers plan to increase planted acres from last year in 24 States, remain unchanged from 2003 in 5 States, and decrease planted area in only 2 States. Estimated acreage increases of 200,000 or more are expected in Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, and North Dakota, with North Dakota producers intending to plant 550,000 more acres to soybeans than last year. Growers in the seven major producing States (IL, IN, IA, MN, MO, NE, and OH) planted 48.3 million acres, up 1 percent from 2003. Current high prices are encouraging producers in most states to plant more soybeans. However, despite the current high soybean prices, many South Dakota producers intend to plant more wheat than last year and fewer soybeans, mostly due to the combination of the high wheat and low soybean yields in 2003. Producers intend to plant 86 percent of the soybean acreage to herbicide resistant varieties in 2004, up 5 percentage points from 2003 and continuing the steady increase of herbicide resistant soybean seed use. Peanuts: Producers intend to plant 1.37 million acres of peanuts in 2004, up 2 percent from last year. Of the nine producing States, six intend to plant more acres than in 2003. Southeast growers (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina) intend to plant 933,000 acres, up 6 percent from last year. In the Virginia-North Carolina region, producers intend to plant 137,000 acres, up 1 percent from 2003. Growers in the Southwest (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) intend to plant 296,000 acres, 10 percent below 2003. Sunflowers: Growers expect to plant a total of 2.09 million acres in 2004, down 11 percent from last year. Area intended for oil type varieties, at 1.80 million acres, is down 10 percent from 2003, and the non-oil varieties, estimated at 291,000 acres, are down 16 percent from last year. North Dakota growers intend to plant 1.12 million acres in 2004, down 7 percent from 2003. Growers in South Dakota intend to plant 410,000 acres, down 19 percent from the previous year. Acreage decreases are also expected in Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Texas. Canola: Producers intend to plant 965,000 acres in 2004, a decrease of 11 percent from 2003. This is the fourth consecutive year that canola acreage has declined in the United States. Producers in North Dakota and Minnesota intend to plant 850,000 and 60,000 acres, respectively. Cotton: Area planted to all cotton for 2004 is expected to total 14.4 million acres, 7 percent more than last year. Upland acreage is expected to total 14.2 million acres, also up 7 percent. Growers intend to increase plantings of American-Pima cotton to 226,600 acres, a 27 percent increase from 2003. Upland growers in the Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) intend to plant 3.75 million acres, a 5 percent increase from the previous year. Producers in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and New Mexico intend to plant 6.50 million acres of upland, up 10 percent from 2003. Texas' upland area is intended at 6.10 million acres, a 9 percent increase from last year. Farmers in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia) intend to plant 3.15 million acres of upland cotton, a 4 percent increase from 2003. Upland planted area in California and Arizona is expected to total 780,000 acres, a 2 percent increase from last year. California producers intend to plant 560,000 acres, 2 percent more than a year ago. American-Pima acreage intentions are estimated at 226,600 acres, an increase of 27 percent from last year. The increase occurred primarily in California where producers intend to plant 200,000 acres, up 33 percent from the previous year. Arizona and Texas producers are planning to decrease planted acreage by 13 percent and 20 percent, respectively. New Mexico growers intend to plant 8,000 acres, up 1,900 acres from a year ago. Factors such as water availability, the cost of irrigating, and prices of upland relative to American-Pima will impact the final planting decisions. Sugarbeets: Area planted to sugarbeets for the 2004 crop year is expected to total 1.36 million acres, slightly below the 2003 planted acreage. The four largest-producing States all expect acreage decreases from last year. These States and their acreage declines from last year are; Idaho down 11,000 acres, Michigan and Minnesota both down 6,000 acres, and North Dakota down 4,000 acres. Acreage increases are expected in Colorado, Montana, Oregon, and Wyoming. In these States, the 2003 planted area declined due to a shortage of water, and the increases for 2004 represent a partial rebound from these levels. Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco area for harvest in 2004 is expected to be 414,550 acres, down less than 1 percent from 2003 and 3 percent below two years ago. If realized, this would be the lowest harvested acreage since 1874. Expected harvested area for flue-cured, cigar binder, and cigar filler is down from last year. However, acres to be harvested of light air-cured, fire-cured, dark air-cured, and cigar wrapper are up from a year ago. Flue-cured tobacco, at 231,200 acres, is 1 percent below a year ago. Flue-cured acreage accounts for 56 percent of this year's expected total tobacco acreage. Acreage in North Carolina, the leading flue-cured State, is down 1 percent from last year. Harvested acreage is also expected to decline in South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida by 10 percent, 11 percent, and 5 percent, respectively. In Virginia, harvested acreage is expected to increase by 21 percent over last season. Tobacco producers in Virginia are expected to increase acreage to compensate for the lack of carryover into the 2004 season because of last year's low production. Light air-cured tobacco types are up 1 percent from last year but 1 percent below 2002. Burley tobacco, at 157,200 acres, is up 1 percent from a year ago but 1 percent below two years ago. Area in 5 burley producing States is expected to increase from last year. These States are Kentucky, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, and West Virginia which are up 1 percent, 8 percent, 9 percent, 2 percent, and 8 percent, respectively. In Tennessee and North Carolina, harvested acreage is expected to decrease 4 percent from 2003. Missouri is expecting no change in acreage from the previous year. Southern Maryland type tobacco area, at 3,000 acres, is up 7 percent from last year. Maryland's acreage dropped 33 percent from last year but Pennsylvania expects acreage to increase 54 percent from 2003. Maryland's acreage continues to drop due to the State's buyout program, while demand for Southern Maryland type tobacco in Pennsylvania is high. Fire-cured tobacco types, at 11,620 acres, are up 4 percent from 2003. Tennessee and Kentucky producers expect to increase harvested acres over last year by 4 percent. Dark air-cured tobacco types, at 4,130 acres, are 3 percent above last year's harvested acres and 8 percent above 2002. One sucker type tobacco, at 2,860 acres, is 4 percent above last year. Green River type tobacco and Sun-cured tobacco, at 1,200 acres and 70 acres, respectively, are both unchanged from 2003. All cigar types, at 7,400 acres, are down 3 percent from last year but 10 percent above 2002. Connecticut and Massachusetts broadleaf acreage, at 2,350, is unchanged from the 2003 crop. Acreage of Pennsylvania seedleaf, at 2,200 acres, is down 8 percent from last year. Expected harvested acres of Wisconsin binder tobacco are estimated at 1,700 acres, down 7 percent from last year. Connecticut and Massachusetts shade-grown tobacco, at 1,150 acres, is up 6 percent from a year ago. Dry Beans: Prospective 2004 planting of dry beans in the U.S. totals 1.33 million acres, down 5 percent from last year and 31 percent below two years ago. Relatively low prices for the 2003 crop contribute to the expected reduction in planted acres. Growers expect to plant more dry bean acres than a year ago in 8 States, while acreage is expected to decline in 8 States. Acreage is intended to be the same in New Mexico and Wisconsin. North Dakota farmers expect a 11 percent decline in dry bean acreage this year. Nebraska's prospective acreage is down 6 percent. California growers expect a 5 percent decline, while Texas dry bean acreage is expected to drop 46 percent. New York growers expect a 8 percent downturn if current plans are implemented. Kansas, Oregon, and South Dakota growers also expect their dry bean acreage to be down. The States that expect planting increases from a year ago are: Michigan, up 6 percent; Minnesota, up 4 percent; Colorado, up 6 percent; Idaho, up 7 percent; Washington, up 27 percent; Wyoming, up 3 percent; Montana, up 8 percent; and Utah, up 7 percent. Planting is underway for California's garbanzo beans. Most States, however, will wait until late April through June for dry bean planting. Montana and Wyoming growers are hopeful the irrigation water supply is better than last year. Sweet Potatoes: Growers intend to plant 98,300 acres of sweet potatoes in 2004, up 3 percent from last year and 2 percent above 2002. This intended increase in planted acreage is being driven by higher prices. Higher planted acreage than last year is expected for 4 States, 1 is unchanged, and 4 States are expected to decrease acres. Transplant preparations are active in North Carolina, as most growers have planted their beds or have lined up sources for plants. North Carolina growers expect to increase planted acres by 2 percent. Mississippi and Louisiana intentions for sweet potatoes are up 7 and 5 percent, respectively. Planted acreage in Virginia is down 20 percent and Alabama growers plan to decrease acres 7 percent. Planting intentions in South Carolina are down 6 percent. New Jersey growers expect to plant the same as last year. Planting intentions in California are up 6 percent from last year. California farmers continued to prepare hotbeds for plant development into March, after an earlier than usual start this year. Growing conditions have been good, with ample rainfall reported. Texas growers plan to decrease acres 6 percent this year. A shortage of irrigation water has forced many growers to cut back on planted acreage. Reliability of Acreage Data in this Report Survey Procedures: The acreage estimates in this report are based primarily on surveys conducted during the first 2 weeks of March. The March Agricultural Survey is a probability survey that includes a sample of nearly 73,000 farm operators selected from a list of producers that ensures all operations in the U.S. have a chance to be selected. These operators were contacted by mail, telephone, or personal interview to obtain information on crop acreage planned for the 2004 crop year. Estimating Procedures: National, Regional, State, and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). Survey data are compiled to the National level and are reviewed at this level independently of each State's review. Acreage estimates were based on survey data and the historical relationship of official estimates to the survey data. Revision Policy: Acreage estimates in the "Prospective Plantings" report will not be revised. These estimates are intended to reflect grower intentions as of the survey period. New acreage estimates will be made based on surveys conducted in June when crop acreages have been established or planting intentions are firm. These new estimates will be published in the "Acreage" report scheduled for June 30, 2004. Winter wheat is an exception. Since winter wheat was seeded prior to the March survey, any changes in estimates in this report are considered revisions. The estimate of the harvested acreage of winter wheat will be published on May 12, 2004, along with the first production forecast of the crop year. Reliability: The survey used to make acreage estimates is subject to sampling and non-sampling errors that are common to all surveys. Sampling errors represent the variability between estimates that would result if many different samples were surveyed at the same time. Sampling errors for major crops are generally between 1.0 and 3.0 percent, but they cannot be applied directly to the acreage published in this report to determine confidence intervals because the official estimates represent a composite of information from more than a single source. Non-sampling errors cannot be measured directly. They may occur due to incorrect reporting and/or recording, data omissions or duplications, and errors in processing. To minimize non-sampling errors, vigorous quality controls are used in the data collection process and all data are carefully reviewed for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of acreage estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviations between the acreage estimates in this report and the final estimates are expressed as a percentage of the final estimates. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimates relative to the final end-of-season estimates, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimates are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the corn planted estimate is 2.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current corn acreage estimate will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.5 percent. Also, shown in the table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the difference between the "Prospective Plantings" planted acreage estimates and the final estimates. Using corn again as an example, changes between the intentions estimates and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 1.13 million acres, ranging from 7,000 acres to 3.84 million acres. The prospective plantings estimates have been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times. This does not imply that the planted estimate this year is likely to understate or overstate the final estimate. Reliability of Prospective Plantings Planted Acreage Estimates -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 20-Year Record of : : : Differences Between Forecast : : : and Final Estimate : : :------------------------------------ : Root Mean : : Thousand Acres : Number of Crop :Square Error: 90 : Quantity : Years : Percent : Percent :------------------------------------ : :Confidence : : : :Below:Above : : Interval :Average:Smallest:Largest:Final:Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Acres ---- Number : Corn : 2.0 3.5 1,130 7 3,844 6 14 Sorghum : 7.8 13.5 728 31 2,471 11 9 Oats : 7.7 13.4 604 24 2,429 4 16 Barley : 5.4 9.3 374 68 1,369 6 14 Winter Wheat : 1.2 2.1 472 9 1,630 9 11 Durum Wheat : 8.1 13.9 205 12 573 12 8 Other Spring Wheat: 6.4 11.1 880 12 2,543 13 7 Soybeans : 2.2 3.8 1,209 25 2,582 14 6 Upland Cotton : 3.8 6.5 386 6 945 10 10 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526 Troy Joshua - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Hay, Oats , Sorghum(202) 690-3234 Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops(202) 720-7621 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas(202) 720-3250 Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Jim Smith - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202 )720-2127 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Prospective Plantings" report will be released in March 2005. 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