NOTE: AO has 10 issues in 2002.  Please note that reports are released in one 
month, BUT THE ISSUE DATE IS FOR THE FOLLOWING MONTH; e.g., the May 2002 issue 
is released in April.

AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK -- SUMMARY                  July 22, 2002
July/August 2002, ERS-AO-293
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831.  The complete text of the 
report will be available electronically 2 working days following this summary 
release.    
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U.S. Red Meat & Poultry Exports May Hit Record Levels in 2003 

Total U.S. meat exports are expected to increase nearly 9 percent in 2003 from 
weak 2002 levels, and may approach record levels.  Likely bolstering the 2003 
increase will be a resolution of recent food safety issues and a stronger world 
economy.  In contrast, total 2002 meat exports will likely decline 8-9 percent 
from the 2001 record as a result of the strong dollar, slow world economic 
growth, and unexpected animal disease and food safety concerns. Lower pork and 
poultry exports account for the 2002 decline. Dale Leuck (202) 694-5186; 
djleuck@ers.usda.gov

Corn & Soybean Plantings Change Little from Spring Intentions  

Planted area for the eight major U.S. field crop, sorghum, barley, oats, 
soybeans, wheat, cotton, and rice) is estimated at 249.1 million acres in 2002, 
up slightly from last year, based on USDA's Acreage report.  Increases in corn, 
wheat, barley, and oats are partially offset by decreases in soybeans, cotton, 
rice, and sorghum.  Hay area is estimated up more than 1 million acres.  William 
Chambers (202) 694-5312; chambers@ers.usda.gov  

U.S. Wheat Output & Exports to Decline in 2002/03

Prospects for the lowest U.S. wheat exports in more than 30 years are dominating 
the 2002/03 U.S. wheat outlook.  Smaller U.S. supplies, shrinking global 
imports, and intense competition are combining to reduce U.S. exports. Despite a 
further drop in U.S. ending stocks this year, these bleak export prospects 
dampen the price advantages from declining stocks. The projected price range for 
2002/03 is $2.75 to $3.35 per bushel. Gary Vocke (202) 694-5285; 
gvocke@ers.usda.gov

Is There a Tobacco Quota Buyout in the Future?

During the current session of Congress, several tobacco buyout bills have been 
submitted that would modify the tobacco program and provide for government 
purchase of quota from growers or other quota owners. Declining demand for 
tobacco is limiting the amount of quota available, and increased use of 
marketing contracts is reducing the amount of tobacco eligible for price 
support. Some growers seem ready to accept buyouts and give up the security of 
the price support safety net for greater freedom in making production and 
marketing decisions. Thomas Capehart (202) 694-5311; thomasc@ers.usda.gov 

The Services Sector: Its Role in World Food Production & Trade 

Trade in services is growing faster than merchandise trade. In the U.S. and 
other developed economies the services sector accounts for more than two-thirds 
of gross domestic product. The food system is increasingly affected by service 
sector growth-a growing share of consumers' food expenditures and farmers' input 
costs are for services. It may be time to shift the focus of policy reform from 
agricultural production to the broader food system.  William T. Coyle (202) 694-
5216; wcoyle@ers.usda.gov
The African Growth & Opportunity Act: How Much Opportunity?

For Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), trade could play a crucial role in economic 
development, by providing opportunities to improve economic efficiency and raise 
incomes. To help create incentives for SSA countries to implement domestic 
economic and political reforms and improve market opportunities, Congress passed 
the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in May 2000.  AGOA provides 
preferential access to U.S. markets for designated Sub-Saharan countries and 
improved access to credit and technical expertise. 
Stacey Rosen (202) 694-5164 slrosen@ers.usda.gov 

Trade Remedy Laws & Agriculture

During the past century, governments of industrialized nations devised three 
basic trade remedies-countervailing duties, antidumping provisions, and 
safeguards-as defense measures against imports causing injury to domestic 
industry.  The Uruguay Round of international trade negotiations, which 
established the World Trade Organization (WTO), attempted to discipline 
inappropriate use of these trade remedies by establishing criteria or standards 
for their application.  Even so, trade remedies are being increasingly employed 
by WTO members against agricultural products, particularly value-added products.  
As a major exporter of high-value products, U.S. agriculture has a substantial 
interest in the outcome of WTO negotiations on these measures in the current 
Doha Round. Anita Regmi (202) 694-5161; aregmi@ers.usda.gov

Assessing the Economic Well-Being of Farm Households

While farm income or commodity prices are often cited as indicators of the 
economic well-being of farm households, the resulting picture is certainly 
incomplete and most likely distorted. The level of wealth, as well as the level 
of income from both farm and nonfarm sources, affects the consumption potential 
of farm households. A comprehensive assessment of well-being must therefore 
consider household wealth as well as income and consumption. Nearly half of all 
farm operator households had both higher income and higher wealth than the 
average U.S. household in 2000. Ashok Mishra (202) 694-5580; 
amishra@ers.usda.gov  

Rural Residential Land Use: Tracking Its Growth

Among the most rapidly growing land uses in the U.S. is land for rural 
residences. Residential land use in rural areas has increased more rapidly than 
in urban areas, not only in percentage terms but also in absolute numbers: 1 
million acres per year compared with 420,000 acres. Rural residential lots tend 
to be much larger than urban lots: 60 percent of the residential acreage is in 
lots of over 10 acres.  While land in residential use in rural areas is a small 
proportion of total U.S. land use, this phenomenon has implications for farmland 
prices and the availability of land for agriculture and forestry, and can affect 
rural amenities and the rural environment. Marlow Vesterby (202) 694-5528; 
vesterby@ers.usda.gov

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
Full text of Agricultural Outlook will be available July 23, 2002 at 
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/erssor/economics/ao-bb/2002/


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