NOTE: AO has 10 issues in 2002.  Please note that reports are released in one 
month, BUT THE ISSUE DATE IS FOR THE FOLLOWING MONTH; e.g., the May 2002 issue 
is released in April.

AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK -- SUMMARY                    May 21, 2002
June 2002, ERS-AO-292
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831.  The complete text of the 
report will be available electronically 2 working days following this summary 
release.    
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Stable Field Crop Supplies Forecast for 2002/03

Supplies of most major U.S. field crops are expected to rise in 2002/03, 
according to USDA's first projection of production and prices for the next 
marketing year. Bountiful production is anticipated despite similar or lower 
planted acres for most crops this year, although production gains for corn and 
oats are driven by large projected planted acreage increases of 4 and 16 
percent, respectively. Small output changes are projected for soybeans, sorghum, 
barley, and rice, but wheat and cotton production is expected to show 
substantial declines--over 7 and 12 percent, respectively. Higher use may offset 
downward pressure on farm prices for some crops, as relatively low prices are 
expected to encourage domestic consumption and exports. Gregory K. Price (202) 
694-5315; gprice@ers.usda.gov.

South Korea's Agricultural Policy Hampered Economic Growth

The rapid economic development of South Korea (Korea) is often considered a 
model for developing countries, and some of them may consider adopting the 
Korean pattern of policy choices.  However, while Korea clearly prospered 
between 1975 and 1990, a new ERS study finds that Korea's agricultural trade 
policies hindered rather than helped the country's economic progress.  The costs 
of Korea's agricultural protection were high and increased over time.  Korea's 
protective policies kept resources in agriculture, and this distortion, combined 
with high food prices, limited growth in the manufacturing and services sectors. 
John Dyck (202) 694-5221; jdyck@ers.usda.gov.

Non-trade Concerns: International Debate & U.S. Policy

Among the topics of discussion in the World Trade Organization (WTO) 
negotiations on agriculture, non-trade concerns remain one of the more 
contentious. In WTO parlance, "non-trade concerns" include a range of issues 
related to agriculture but not strictly linked to traditional trade measures. 
Among other things, non-trade concerns include environmental protection, rural 
development, and food security. The crux of the debate derives from the 
presumption that agriculture produces desired noncommodity outputs as joint 
products with agricultural production, and agricultural production is necessary 
to obtain these noncommodity outputs. However, several U.S. policies illustrate 
how noncommodity benefits can be provided without agricultural production. Mary 
Anne Normile (202) 694-5162; mnormile@ers.usda.gov.

Public Lands & Western Communities

Net migration into the West and changing preferences for recreation 
opportunities and environmental amenities are increasing demand for 
recreational/environmental goods and services. This, in turn, is reshaping the 
economic relationship between public lands and rural communities. Traditional 
uses of public lands in the West--such as grazing, mining, and forestry--remain 
key sources of rural jobs and income, but continuing demographic changes are 
likely to put additional pressures on policymakers regarding multiple uses for 
public lands. Kenneth H. Mathews Jr., (202) 694-5183; kmathews@ers.usda.gov.

Communications & the Internet in Rural America

Beginning with the invention of the telephone, communication and information 
service innovations have been introduced and disseminated throughout rural 
America in fits and starts.  The marked decline in investment in 
telecommunications since the dot-com bust in the late 1990s will slow the 
diffusion of Internet and other new services, but the demand for these services 
seems to be continuing to grow. The availability of new services and their 
affordability will be determined by governmental policy, the economic 
feasibility and technical limits of new technologies, and market incentives. 
Peter L. Stenberg  (202) 694-5366; stenberg@ers.usda.gov.

Does Land Degradation Threaten Global Agricultural Productivity & Food Security?

Global food production has risen more rapidly than population in recent decades, 
but 800 million people remain food insecure.  Soil erosion and other forms of 
land degradation have the potential to reduce productivity growth and increase 
food insecurity, particularly in areas where fragile resources are found along 
with poverty and poorly functioning markets.  When markets function well, 
however, farmers have incentives to adopt appropriate conservation practices. 
Recent ERS research indicates that land degradation does not threaten 
productivity growth and food security at the global level. Keith Wiebe (202) 
694-5529; kdwiebe@ers.usda.gov.

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
Full text of Agricultural Outlook will be available May 22, 2002 at 
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/erssor/economics/ao-bb/2002/

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