NOTE: AO has 10 issues in 2002.  Please note that reports are released in one 
month, BUT THE ISSUE DATE IS FOR THE FOLLOWING MONTH; e.g., the May 2002 issue 
is released in April.

AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK -- SUMMARY          October 22, 2002
November 2002, ERS-AO-296
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831.  The complete text of the 
report will be available electronically 2 working days following this summary 
release.    
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Broilers Headed for Record Production & Consumption 

The U.S. broiler industry has seen continuous yearly gains in production since 1975, with 2002 
likely to again set a record.  U.S. broiler consumption this year should also set a record, fed 
by strong consumer demand and competitive prices relative to other meats.  Broiler exports, 
however, are forecast down in 2002.  In contrast to broilers, turkey consumption has not kept 
pace with production, and with exports down, stocks have grown.  Egg production and consumption 
will likely show only modest gains in 2002, and egg exports are expected to be down. David 
Harvey (202) 694-5177 djharvey@ers.usda.gov

Export Share of U.S. Ag Production Is a Stable 21 Percent

The export share of total U.S. agricultural production was 21 percent in 2001, equal to 2000 and 
the average since 1996.  For crops alone, export share has also been stable, averaging 24 
percent from 1996 to 2001, and the export share of livestock products has averaged 6 percent.  
While export shares of crops in recent years are lower than in the 1980s and the first half of 
the 1990s, the export share of livestock products is higher now than in the 1980s. Alberto 
Jerardo (202) 694-5266 ajerardo@ers.usda.gov

U.S. Rice Market Facing Record Supplies, Low Prices

Rice prices in the U.S. are at their lowest level in more than 15 years, the result of weak 
global prices and a second consecutive year of record supplies at home.  Despite a bearish price 
outlook and expectations of a huge carryover, U.S. rice producers cut plantings just 3 percent 
in 2002.  At planting, most producers estimated returns to rice production to be higher than for 
alternative plantings. The projected 2002/03 (August-July) U.S. season-average farm price of 
$3.50-$4 per hundredweight, is down from $4.17 a year earlier and the lowest since 1986/87. U.S. 
rice exports in 2002/03 are projected to be strong, up 3 percent from 2001/02, due in part to 
expanding global rice trade since 2000.  Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 nchilds@ers.usda.gov 

Price Recovery Elusive for Cotton

Commodity prices around the world have been relatively low since the late 1990s, and 2002 cotton 
prices remain about 30 percent below the 1990-94 average.  While prices of some major field 
crops have recovered from their recent lows, cotton and rice have been left behind. Global 
ending stocks for cotton, rice, wheat, corn, and soybeans are all expected to fall during 
2002/03, but cotton and rice prices defy the rising trend currently enjoyed by other crops.  
Stocks are contracting substantially more for wheat, corn, and soybeans than for cotton, 
particularly in the U.S.  China's role in world cotton and rice consumption is greater than for 
the other crops, and China appears likely to continue the cotton stock reductions initiated 
several years ago. Stephen MacDonald (202) 694-5305 stephenm@ers.usda.gov

Sweet Potatoes: Getting to the Root of Demand

For many Americans, sweet potatoes have a strong holiday connection (Thanksgiving, 
Christmas/Hanukkah, and Easter), but this root crop remains a popular vegetable year-round in 
the American South and in Asia, Africa, and Brazil. Two basic types of sweet potatoes are grown 
in the U.S--moist-flesh types (which feature sweet, orange, soft, moist flesh when cooked) and 
dry-flesh types (which have dry, starchy, firm flesh when cooked). The moist types account for 
most of U.S. output.  The U.S. is the world's 10th- largest producer of sweet potatoes. 
Production in 2001 was the third highest since 1965. Over the 1999-2001 period, U.S. sweet 
potato growers produced an average of 13.5 million hundredweight from 90,500 harvested acres, 
and farm cash receipts averaged $214 million. 
Gary Lucier (202) 694-5253 glucier@ers.usda.gov

Will the Farm Act Get Pulses Racing? 

Dry peas, lentils, and small chickpeas--pulse crops--are relatively minor in acreage, supply, 
and use in the U.S. compared with corn, soybeans, and wheat.  However, pulses could be poised 
for expansion due to their inclusion in the 2002 Farm Act.  New marketing loan benefits, 
combined with agronomic advantages and a growing number of processors, may increase the 
attractiveness of planting pulses, particularly in the Northern Great Plains.  Accommodating an 
increased supply will likely require expansion of current markets and creation of new ones. 
Gregory K. Price (202) 694-5315 gprice@ers.usda.gov 

EU Enlargement: The End Game Begins

Ten Central and East European (CEE) countries are engaged in intense negotiations with the 
European Union (EU) for eventual membership.  The EU's official position is that 8 of the 10 
will be ready to join in 2004--Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, 
Latvia, and Lithuania. Accession could bring significant changes in production and trade for the 
CEEs.  Impacts on world trade are likely to be small, but enlargement could alter U.S. exports 
to the region.  U.S. grain exports to the CEEs have already dwindled, but the U.S. could lose 
much of its share of the large poultry market as EU sanitary requirements are adopted.  At the 
same time, rising CEE incomes resulting from EU membership could create opportunities for larger 
U.S. exports of other high-value products. Nancy Cochrane (202) 694-5143 cochrane@ers.usda.gov

China's Increasing Presence in Global Trade of Vegetables & Fruits

China raised its profile in the global market for vegetables and fruits in the 1990s, increasing 
its export value of those products by 33 percent between 1992-94 and 1998-2000, from $2.3 
billion to $3.1 billion.  With improvements in production, marketing, and transportation 
technologies, China strengthened its competitive position to eighth place in the world vegetable 
and fruit export market. Though a relatively low-volume importer, China expanded its import 
value of vegetables and fruits more than fourfold to reach $413 million during the same period. 
Sophia Wu Huang (202) 694-5257 sshuang@ers.usda.gov

U.S. Organic Farming: A Decade of Expansion

American farmland under organic management has grown steadily for the last decade, with acreage 
for major crops more than doubling between 1992 and 1997, and again between 1997 and 2001. 
Certified organic pasture (including ranchland) also doubled between 1997 and 2001.  Even so, 
some European countries are ahead of the U.S. in organic production.  USDA's national organic 
standards, which took effect in October 2002, incorporate an ecological approach to farming and 
are expected to generate further interest in organic products among farmers and consumers. 
Catherine Greene (202) 694-5541 cgreene@ers.usda.gov

Precision Agriculture Adoption Continues to Grow

Precision agriculture (PA), a relatively new technology-based approach appearing during the 
early 1990s, incorporates modern information technologies into the management of agricultural 
inputs and production practices. PA technologies fall into two broad categories: spatial and/or 
temporal sensing (e.g., yield monitors), and application control also known as variable-rate 
technology (VRT).  Corn and soybean farmers have been the most rapid adopters of PA sensing 
technologies-yield monitor use grew to over 25 percent of soybean acres in 2000, and to over 33 
percent of corn acreage in 2001. Variable-rate application technologies use information from 
sensing technologies to vary application rates and timing for seed, fertilizer, and pesticides. 
Fertilization of corn and soybeans has been the most widespread use of VRT. Stan Daberkow (202) 
694-5535 daberkow@ers.usda.gov

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
Full text of Agricultural Outlook will be available October 23, 2002 at 
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/erssor/economics/ao-bb/2002/


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