REVISED SUMMARY:
AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK                                        August 22, 1997
September 1997, AO-244
               Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is issued monthly (except January) by the Economic Research
Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788.  The
complete text of AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK will be available 5 working days 
following this summary release.    
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NOTICE: This release contains revisions to the Summary Table 1 that appeared 
in the August 20, 1997, release.  Specificlly, the changes are as follows: 
In the 1998 annual column, the figures for "Agricultural exports" and 
"Agricultural imports" have been replaced with dashes to indicate that 
this data is not available.  
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SOYBEAN AND RICE CROPS UP IN 1997

Farm Act Eases Acreage Shifts

The 1996 Farm Act granted U.S. farmers more flexibility to respond to strong
market price signals by eliminating acreage reduction programs, base acreage
planting requirements to maintain program payments, and limits on flex acreage
that farmers could plant to other crops.  Higher prices in 1996 prompted
farmers to increase planted acreage of major field crops by 16 million acres,
to nearly 262 million.  In 1997, although total planted acreage was about the
same as in 1996, the crop mix changed as farmers planted more soybeans in
response to strong prices relative to other crops.

Under prior farm legislation, farmers' flexibility to switch acreage among
crops was limited. But the 1996 Farm Act, by removing constraints on land use,
permitted a larger supply response to the economic incentives provided by
absolute and relative price movements.  

Soybean Producers Look to World Market 

U.S. soybean farmers responded to this spring's strong prices and greater
planting flexibility by planting an estimated 70.9 million acres, up 10
percent and the largest in 15 years.  Crop conditions to date suggest a record
1997 U.S. soybean crop.  Soybean marketers will turn to growing international
as well as domestic markets to sell the expected 1997 bumper crop.  

Record supplies are projected to lift both domestic crush and U.S. soybean
exports to record volumes.  Recent trade agreements that have removed
international barriers and opened U.S. export markets should provide a welcome
boost.  However, sensitivity in some European markets to the importation of
new, genetically modified soybeans, and related discussions of product
labeling, represent potential hurdles for future U.S. exports.

Rice Output Reflects Strong Prices

The 1997 U.S. rice crop is estimated at 182 million cwt, up over 6 percent
from last year, although the effects of a cool, wet spring will keep southern
rice yields from matching last year's record.  The production increase comes
entirely from a 15-percent rise in southern long grain rice acreage, the
result of higher prices at planting for long grain rice compared with medium
and short grain varieties and alternative crops.

Strong rice prices reflected an extremely tight domestic supply situation,
with a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.1 percent at the end of the 1996/97 marketing
year, the lowest since 1980/81.  For long grain rice, the ratio fell even
lower--to 7.4 percent.  In recent years, stronger world trade, fueled by
rising incomes in Asia, lower trade barriers, and faster growth in world rice
consumption than in production, has helped maintain higher domestic prices for
U.S. rice.  

NAFTA: Third-Year Assessment

[Article will follow release of full USDA report assessing first 3 years of
NAFTA]

Everglades Restoration & Agricultural Options

One of the most ambitious environmental restoration efforts--the South Florida
Ecosystem Restoration Project--is now underway to restore the Everglades
watershed.  Decades of urban and agricultural development in south Florida
have profoundly altered the Everglades--wetlands have been lost, natural water
flows disrupted, and water quality impaired.

Restoration will place increasing demands on the agricultural sector to adjust
traditional patterns of land and water use.  Acquisition of land or land-use
rights for environmental restoration is a priority activity, and much of the
land would likely be areas currently in crop production or pasture.  In
addition, changes in cropping patterns and crop type may help to integrate
agricultural production with natural water flow systems. Improved management
of land, water, chemicals, and other purchased inputs will be a key element of
the restoration program. The environmental benefits of maintaining a strong
agricultural sector need to be considered when assessing the benefits and
costs of alternative restoration measures.  

Printed copies of Agricultural Outlook will be available in about 2 weeks. 
For further information call Randy Schnepf (202) 219-1281, Anne Effland (202)
501-8448, or Joel Greene  (202) 219-0649.  The full text of the magazine will
be available electronically in 3 working days; for details, call (202) 219-0515. 



   Table 1.  Key statistical indicators of the food and fiber sector          

                                            1996                          1997
                                           -----         ---------------------
                                          Annual         I      II F     III F

  Prices received by farmers (1990-92=1      112       117        --        --
    Livestock & products                      99        98        --        --
    Crops                                    126       115        --        --

  Prices paid by farmers, (1990-92=100)
    Production items                         115       113        --        --
    Commodities & services, interest,        115       116        --        --
     taxes, & wages

  Cash receipts ($ bil.) 1/                  202        --        --        --
    Livestock ($ bil.)                      92.9        --        --        --
    Crops ($ bil.)                         109.1        --        --        --

  Market basket (1982-84=100)
    Retail cost                              156       160        --        --
    Farm value                               111       107        --        --
    Spread                                   180       188        --        --
    Farm value/retail cost (%)                25        24        --        --

  Retail prices (1982-84=100)
    All food                                 153       157       157       158
      At home                                154       158       158       158
      Away from home                         153       156       156       157

  Agricultural exports ($ bil.) 2/          59.8      14.9        --        --
  Agricultural imports ($ bil.) 2/          32.4       9.1        --        --

  Commercial production
    Red meat (mil. lb.)                   43,135    10,457    10,655    10,980
    Poultry (mil. lb.)                    32,289     7,986     8,451     8,530
    Eggs (mil. doz.)                       6,358     1,587     1,591     1,635
    Milk (bil. lb.)                        154.3      38.9      40.6      38.4

  Consumption, per capita
    Red meat and poultry (lb.)             209.2      49.7      52.1      53.4

  Corn beginning stock (mil. bu.) 3/     1,557.8     425.9   6,903.7   4,494.1
  Corn use (mil. bu.) 3/                 8,522.3   2,819.1   2,411.9   2,002.9

  Prices 4/
    Choice steers--Neb. Direct ($/cwt)     65.21     66.40     66.63     65-67
    Barrows & gilts--IA, So. MN ($/cwt)    53.39     51.06     56.41     56-58
    Broilers--12-city (cts./lb.)            61.2      60.0      59.1     61-63
    Eggs--NY gr. A large (cts./doz.)        88.2      84.9      72.1     79-81
    Milk--all at plant ($/cwt)             14.87     13.47     12.93    12.35-
                                                                         12.65
  Wheat--KC HRW ordinary ($/bu.)            5.48      4.57      4.49        --
  Corn--Chicago ($/bu.)                     3.87      2.86      2.86        --
  Soybeans--Chicago ($/bu.)                 7.53      7.74      8.54        --
  Cotton--Avg. spot 41-34 (cts./lb.)       77.93     70.73     69.81        --



                                            1988      1989      1990      1991
                                             ---------------------------------
  Farm real estate values 5/,6/
    Nominal ($ per acre)                     632       668       683       703
    Real (1982 $)                            530       539       528       521

  1/ Quarterly data seasonally adjusted at annual rates.  2/ Annual data based 
on Oct.-Sept. fiscal years ending with year indicated.  3/ Sept.-Nov. first 
quarter; Dec.-Feb. second quarter; Mar.-May third quarter; Jun.-Aug. fourth 
quarter; Sept.-Aug. annual.  Use includes exports & domestic disappearance.  
4/ Simple averages, Jan.-Dec.  5/ 1990-94 values as of January 1. 1986-89 
values as of February 1.  6/ The 1989-94 values are revised based on the 1992 
Census of Agriculture.  
F = Forecast, -- = Not available.

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..........................................................continued (new page)

            1997                    1998          
--------------------      ------------------------
      IV F  Annual F       I F      II F  Annual F

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       159       158       160       161       161
       159       158       161       162       161
       159       157       160       161       162

        --      56.5        --        --        --
        --      35.5        --        --        --


    10,755    42,847    10,652    10,820    43,762
     8,500    33,467     8,530     8,940    18,475
     1,680     6,493     1,630     1,640     6,680
      38.1     156.0      39.1      40.7     156.6


      53.2     208.5      52.3      53.1     214.4

   2,494.9     425.9     941.4        --        --
   1,556.0   8,790.0        --        --        --


     69-73     67-68     69-75     71-77     70-76
     52-56     54-55     49-53     52-56     51-55
     57-61     59-61     56-60     58-62     57-62
     81-85     79-81     72-78     67-73     72-78
    13.70-    13.15-    13.15-    12.30-    12.85-
     14.30     13.35     14.05     13.30     13.85
        --        --        --        --        --
        --        --        --        --        --
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      1992      1993      1994      1995      1996
--------------------------------------------------

       713       736       782       832       890
       507       511       529       550       574

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