NOTE: AO has 10 issues in 2000.  Please note that reports are released in one
month, BUT THE ISSUE DATE IS FOR THE FOLLOWING MONTH; e.g., the May 2000 issue
is released in April.

AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK -- SUMMARY                        October 20, 2000
November 2000, ERS-AO-276
     Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831.  The complete text of the 
report will be available electronically 2 working days following this summary
release.    
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 Tariff-Rate Quotas-A Status Report

     When the next round of World Trade Organization agricultural trade
negotiations gets under way in earnest next year in Geneva, tariff-rate
quotas (TRQ's) are likely to emerge among items to be negotiated. A TRQ
is a two-tiered tariff allowing a limited volume-the "quota"-to be
imported at a lower rate, with imports above the quota subject to the
higher tariff. Over 1,300 TRQ's are applied to agricultural products,
and many limit trade on key or politically sensitive commodities.
     Two issues to be resolved are TRQ liberalization and
administration. Liberalization concerns changing the tariff and quota
levels of existing TRQ's. Questions about liberalization are likely to
revolve around whether minimum-access levels (within quota) should be
expanded and whether and how to reduce tariffs. TRQ administration
relates to how an importing country allocates the right to import at
the in-quota tariff rate. For example, should quotas be allocated based
on past market share or potential share? David Skully (202) 694-5236;
dskully@ers.usda.gov

India Relaxes Restraints on Agricultural Imports
     India is slowly opening its doors to the world market. Since 1997,
the world's second-most populous country has been removing many
licensing and quota restrictions on agricultural and other
imports-restrictions that had virtually banned private importing and
kept the level of agricultural imports at a miniscule fraction of the
domestic market. On the minus side, India has put in place several new
high tariffs that will blunt some of the trade potential and leave
immediate prospects for agricultural imports somewhat uncertain.
Nevertheless, as its government liberalizes trade policies, India
emerges as a potentially large market for agricultural and consumer
products. With incomes rising, and given the government's general
support for globalizing the country's economy, India should be a
growing market over the long run. Anwarul Hoque (202) 694-5222;
ahoque@ers.usda.gov

Stalking Celery
     Celery has nutritional properties and versatility that have made
it a relatively steady item in the grocery cart. U.S. consumers used
1.8 billion pounds of celery in 1999, continuing a steady, flat trend
in per capita celery use over the past four decades-about 7 pounds per
year on average. The U.S. celery industry is relatively small, with 378
farms reporting celery production in 1997. California, Florida,
Michigan, and Texas account for most of the nation's celery crop, which
averaged $236 million annually during 1997-99. In the 1990's, exports
accounted for an average 12 percent per year of celery supplies.
Canada, China/Hong Kong, and Taiwan were the largest markets,
purchasing 70, 15, and 7 percent of U.S. fresh-celery exports. Gary
Lucier (202) 694-5253; glucier@ers.usda.gov


U.S. Rice Prices Low Despite Smaller Supplies

     U.S. rice prices were the lowest in nearly 7 years at the start of
the August-July 2000/01 market year, despite a projected dip in
supplies from last season. Although prices have risen slightly since
July, the 2000/01 U.S. season-average farm price is projected at $5.75
to $6.25 per hundredweight (cwt), the lowest since 1992/93. The main
factor preventing U.S. prices from rising is the extremely low level of
prices on the international market--largely the result of an abundance
of exportable supplies worldwide and bumper crops in most major
importing countries. Nathan W. Childs (202) 694-5292;
nchilds@ers.usda.gov

Agricultural Genetic Resources for Future Crops

     Agricultural genetic resources are living matter used by plant
breeders to develop or enhance desirable traits in crops, such as high
yields, resistance to disease, drought tolerance, and heightened
nutritional value. Genetic improvements from plant breeding account for
half the crop yield increases over the past six decades. But continuing
evolution of diseases and other pests presents a threat that can
quickly undo the gains. Breeders need continually to incorporate
diverse germplasm, drawing on wild and adapted sources, to find
specific traits, including resistance to diseases.

     Gene banks hold more than 6 million unique samples of crop
varieties at sites around the world. In the U.S., most agricultural
genetic resources are preserved by removing genetic material from its
natural environment for long-term conservation. Given the limited
incentives for private firms to hold sufficient levels of all types of
germplasm, a strong set of publicly held genetic resources is a major
asset in meeting society's goals. Kelly Day-Rubenstein (202) 694-5515;
kday@ers.usda.gov

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
Full text of Agricultural Outlook will be available 10/23 at
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/erssor/economics/ao-bb/2000/
The magazine in PDF will be posted in about 5 days, and printed copies
will be available in about 2 weeks.

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