Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released March 11, 2025, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Down 1 Percent from February Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2024-2025 season is 2.42 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 12 percent from the 2023-2024 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 11.6 million boxes (522,000 tons), is up 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 35 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 4.60 million boxes (207,000 tons), up 2 percent from the previous forecast but down 32 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 7.00 million boxes (315,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 38 percent from last season's final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 7.50 million boxes (300,000 tons), down 11 percent from the previous forecast and down 19 percent from the previous season. This results in a California all orange forecast of 46.5 million boxes (1.86 million tons), down 2 percent from the previous forecast and down 2 percent from last season's final utilization. The forecast for Texas is carried forward from the previous forecast. This report was approved on March 11, 2025. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Seth Meyer Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Lance Honig Contents Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2023 and 2024................ 4 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2023-2024 and Forecasted March 1, 2025............................................................................................ 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2024 and 2025.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2024 and 2025.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2024 and 2025.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2024 and 2025................................ 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12 February Weather Summary................................................................................. 13 February Agricultural Summary............................................................................ 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Reliability of March 1 Crop Production Forecasts......................................................... 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2023 and 2024 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/ State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 acres -- ----- tons ----- --- 1,000 tons --- : For sugar : Florida ............: 391.0 381.0 44.4 45.1 17,360 17,183 Louisiana ..........: 481.0 498.0 29.9 31.1 14,382 15,488 Texas 2/ ...........: 16.5 (NA) 22.5 (NA) 371 (NA) : United States ......: 888.5 879.0 36.1 37.2 32,113 32,671 : For seed : Florida ............: 16.6 15.7 49.8 53.3 827 837 Louisiana ..........: 24.5 25.3 33.7 34.5 826 873 Texas 2/ ...........: - (NA) (X) (NA) - (NA) : United States ......: 41.1 41.0 40.2 41.7 1,653 1,710 : For sugar and seed : Florida ............: 407.6 396.7 44.6 45.4 18,187 18,020 Louisiana ..........: 505.5 523.3 30.1 31.3 15,208 16,361 Texas 2/ ...........: 16.5 (NA) 22.5 (NA) 371 (NA) : United States ......: 929.6 920.0 36.3 37.4 33,766 34,381 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates discontinued in 2024. Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2023-2024 and Forecasted March 1, 2025 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2023-2024 : 2024-2025 : 2023-2024 : 2024-2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 boxes ----- ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all ..............: 47,500 46,500 1,900 1,860 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 3/ .: 38,200 39,000 1,528 1,560 Valencia ....................: 9,300 7,500 372 300 : Florida, all .................: 17,960 11,600 808 522 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 6,760 4,600 304 207 Valencia ....................: 11,200 7,000 504 315 : Texas, all 2/ ................: 1,180 900 50 39 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 690 600 29 26 Valencia ....................: 490 300 21 13 : United States, all ...........: 66,640 59,000 2,758 2,421 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 45,650 44,200 1,861 1,793 Valencia ....................: 20,990 14,800 897 628 : Grapefruit : California 2/ ................: 4,300 3,700 172 148 Florida ......................: 1,790 1,200 76 51 Texas 2/ .....................: 2,400 2,500 96 100 : United States ................: 8,490 7,400 344 299 : Tangerines and mandarins 4/ : California 2/ ................: 27,400 25,000 1,096 1,000 Florida ......................: 450 350 21 17 : United States ................: 27,850 25,350 1,117 1,017 : Lemons 2/ : Arizona ......................: 950 900 38 36 California ...................: 24,600 26,000 984 1,040 Florida 5/ ...................: (NA) 600 (NA) 27 : United States ................: 25,550 27,500 1,022 1,103 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and mid-season varieties in Florida and Texas. 4/ Includes tangelos and tangors. 5/ Estimates began with the 2024-2025 crop year. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 : 2024 : 2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,373 1,875 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 90,594 82,896 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,100 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) 49,390 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 14,612 All other ............................: (NA) 34,778 Oats ...................................: 2,213 886 Proso millet ...........................: 481 427 Rice ...................................: 2,910 2,867 Rye ....................................: 2,206 402 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 6,300 5,605 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 306 Wheat, all .............................: 46,079 38,469 Winter ...............................: 33,390 34,115 26,103 Durum ................................: 2,064 2,036 Other spring .........................: 10,625 10,330 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,751.5 2,710.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 148 140 Mustard seed ...........................: 185.0 176.9 Peanuts ................................: 1,801.0 1,758.0 Rapeseed ...............................: 17.5 15.7 Safflower ..............................: 116.6 108.0 Soybeans for beans .....................: 87,050 86,050 Sunflower ..............................: 720.8 686.1 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 11,182.0 8,271.2 Upland ...............................: 10,975.0 8,070.5 American Pima ........................: 207.0 200.7 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,104.3 1,085.5 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 920.0 Tobacco ................................: (NA) 167.5 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 502.0 492.4 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,533.0 1,503.6 Dry edible peas ........................: 976.0 939.9 Lentils ................................: 936.0 903.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 44.8 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 23.2 Potatoes ...............................: 930.0 925.4 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 10.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 : 2024 : 2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 76.7 143,836 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 179.3 14,866,744 Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.2 123,093 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.48 122,462 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.41 49,840 All other ........................tons: 2.09 72,622 Oats ............................bushels: 76.5 67,793 Proso millet ....................bushels: 32.9 14,061 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,748 222,133 Rye .............................bushels: 36.6 14,729 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 61.3 343,850 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 13.3 4,062 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 51.2 1,971,301 Winter ........................bushels: 51.7 1,348,930 Durum .........................bushels: 39.3 80,051 Other spring ..................bushels: 52.5 542,320 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,784 4,834,030 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 4,401.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 17.3 2,420 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 577 102,015 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,668 6,448,020 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,019 31,705 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,200 129,585 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 50.7 4,366,492 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,670 1,145,605 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 836 14,414.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 829 13,946.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,119 468.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 32.5 35,278 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 37.4 34,381 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 1,942 325,220 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,144 5,632 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 2,081 31,289 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,775 16,679 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,002 9,049 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,944 87,072.2 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 5,860 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 658,739 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 103 2,391 Potatoes ............................cwt: 454 420,242 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 132 1,357 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 : 2024 : 2025 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 960,330 758,790 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 36,662,490 33,547,180 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,468,610 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 19,987,640 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 5,913,330 All other ....................: (NA) 14,074,310 Oats ...........................: 895,580 358,560 Proso millet ...................: 194,660 172,800 Rice ...........................: 1,177,650 1,160,250 Rye ............................: 892,750 162,690 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,549,550 2,268,290 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 123,840 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,647,710 15,568,020 Winter .......................: 13,512,600 13,806,000 10,563,620 Durum ........................: 835,280 823,950 Other spring .................: 4,299,830 4,180,450 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 1,113,500 1,096,710 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 59,890 56,660 Mustard seed ...................: 74,870 71,590 Peanuts ........................: 728,850 711,450 Rapeseed .......................: 7,080 6,350 Safflower ......................: 47,190 43,710 Soybeans for beans .............: 35,228,260 34,823,570 Sunflower ......................: 291,700 277,660 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,525,240 3,347,270 Upland .......................: 4,441,470 3,266,050 American Pima ................: 83,770 81,220 Sugarbeets .....................: 446,900 439,290 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 372,310 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 67,770 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 203,150 199,270 Dry edible beans ...............: 620,390 608,490 Dry edible peas ................: 394,980 380,370 Lentils ........................: 378,790 365,440 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 18,130 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 9,390 Potatoes .......................: 376,360 374,500 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 4,170 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 : 2024 : 2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 4.13 3,131,660 Corn for grain .........................: 11.26 377,632,690 Corn for silage ........................: 45.24 111,668,090 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.56 111,095,660 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.65 45,214,090 All other ............................: 4.68 65,881,570 Oats ...................................: 2.74 984,010 Proso millet ...........................: 1.85 318,900 Rice ...................................: 8.68 10,075,780 Rye ....................................: 2.30 374,130 Sorghum for grain ......................: 3.85 8,734,190 Sorghum for silage .....................: 29.76 3,684,980 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.45 53,650,020 Winter ...............................: 3.48 36,711,860 Durum ................................: 2.64 2,178,630 Other spring .........................: 3.53 14,759,530 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2.00 2,192,680 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 3,992,520 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.08 61,470 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.65 46,270 Peanuts ................................: 4.11 2,924,770 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.26 14,380 Safflower ..............................: 1.34 58,780 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.41 118,836,440 Sunflower ..............................: 1.87 519,640 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.94 3,138,280 Upland ...............................: 0.93 3,036,380 American Pima ........................: 1.25 101,890 Sugarbeets .............................: 72.85 32,003,660 Sugarcane ..............................: 83.77 31,189,920 Tobacco ................................: 2.18 147,520 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.28 255,460 Dry edible beans .......................: 2.33 1,419,250 Dry edible peas ........................: 1.99 756,550 Lentils ................................: 1.12 410,460 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 2.18 39,500 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 29,300 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 298,800 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.12 1,080 Potatoes ...............................: 50.90 19,061,860 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.15 620 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2025-2026 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 344 299 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,022 1,103 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 2,758 2,421 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 1,117 1,017 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 11,110.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 36,000 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 355,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 222.0 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: Cranberries .........................barrel: 8,240,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 6,365,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 719,000 Pears .................................tons: 520,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,800,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 270,900 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 670,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2024-2025 and 2025-2026. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2025-2026 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 312,070 271,250 Lemons ....................................: 927,140 1,000,620 Oranges ...................................: 2,502,020 2,196,290 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 1,013,330 922,610 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 5,039,410 Apricots ..................................: 32,660 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 322,050 Cherries, Tart ............................: 100,700 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: Cranberries ...............................: 373,760 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 5,774,230 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 652,270 Pears .....................................: 471,740 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,270,060 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 122,880 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 607,810 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2024-2025 and 2025-2026. February Weather Summary Like January, February featured a sharp cold wave peaking just after the middle of the month. However, winter wheat's protective snow cover across the Plains was much more expansive during the latter outbreak, limiting winterkill losses that might otherwise have occurred. There were also several less-severe cold spells, leading to February temperatures averaging 5 to 15°F below normal across the northern half of the Plains. Colder-than-normal conditions also spilled into the Northwest, as well as much of the southern Plains and Midwest. Conversely, warmer-than-normal weather dominated the Southeast and Southwest, with February temperatures averaging at least 5°F above normal in Florida cities such as Orlando and Tallahassee, as well as Southwestern communities such as Albuquerque, New Mexico, and Phoenix, Arizona. Florida's peninsula, along with Deep South Texas, escaped the February cold snap without a freeze. According to USDA/NASS, more than one-quarter of the winter wheat was rated in very poor to poor condition at the end of February in several key production states, including South Dakota (42 percent), Nebraska (38 percent), Texas (33 percent), and Oklahoma (29 percent). The crop was faring better in top-producer Kansas (54 percent good to excellent, and 14 percent very poor to poor). In Colorado and Montana, 67 percent of the winter wheat was rated in good to excellent condition on February 28. Meanwhile, statewide topsoil moisture rated very short to short across the Plains and Rockies ranged from 35 percent in Kansas to 83 percent in South Dakota. Additionally, topsoil moisture was rated at least one-half very short to short in New Mexico (79 percent), Nebraska (71 percent), Texas (64 percent), Wyoming (64 percent), and Colorado (58 percent). In Texas, drought- and freeze-related impacts left 65 percent of the rangeland and pastures in very poor to poor condition by the end of February. In contrast, robust February precipitation was broadly observed, including an area stretching from Oregon and northern California to the northern High Plains. Even southern California experienced some limited drought relief. Wet February weather also affected portions of the central Plains and the South. In the latter region, a mid-month deluge led to extensive flooding in Kentucky and neighboring states. Top-ten crests were reported along the Kentucky River, which rose to its highest level in 4 years in Kentucky locations such as Heidelberg and Ravenna. Elsewhere in Kentucky, significant lowland flooding was observed along the Cumberland, Green, and Rolling Fork Rivers. Near-record flooding was measured along parts of the Obion River in western Tennessee, with the community of Obion noting its highest water level since January 1937. Snow and bitterly cold conditions immediately trailed the mid-South flooding, complicating recovery efforts. During the 5-week period ending March 4, drought coverage across the Lower 48 States increased from 39.64 to 44.41 percent, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Most of the drought deterioration was observed across the southern Plains and the Southwest, and to a lesser degree, portions of the Midwest and southern Atlantic region. Spring and summer runoff prospects across the western United States were decidedly mixed, ranging from abysmal in much of Arizona and New Mexico to mostly favorable from Oregon and northern California to the northern Rockies. The Sierra Nevada served as a transition zone, with the end-of-February average snow-water equivalency of 19 inches (about 85 percent of normal) belying the fact that there was a large variation from 15 inches in the south to more than 23 inches in the north. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the Sierra Nevada snowpack gained an average of approximately 8 inches of water equivalency during February. February Agricultural Summary February was warmer than normal for most of the Great Basin, Mid-Atlantic, Central and Southern Rockies, South, and Southwest. Large parts of the Central Rockies and Southwest, as well as parts of the Southeast, recorded temperatures 5°F or more above normal. In contrast, most of the Midwest, Northeast, Pacific Northwest, Plains, and Northern Rockies were cooler than normal for the month. Parts of Montana and North Dakota recorded temperatures 15°F or more below normal. While much of the Midwest, Plains, Southeast, and Southwest remained drier than normal, parts of the Pacific Northwest, Ohio Valley, Northern Rockies, and Virginia, as well as parts of California and the Northern Plains, recorded at least twice the normal amount of precipitation. Locations in the Pacific Northwest recorded at least 15 inches of precipitation for the month. Crop Comments Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 34.4 million tons, down less than 1 percent from last month but up 3 percent from last season in comparable States. Producers intend to harvest 920,000 acres for sugar and seed during the 2024 crop year, up slightly from last month and up 1 percent from last season, in comparable States. Yields for sugar and seed are expected to average 37.4 tons per acre, down 0.1 ton from last month but up 0.8 ton from last season, in comparable States. Record high sugarcane for sugar and seed production is expected in Louisiana. Beginning in 2024, estimates for sugarcane were discontinued in Texas. Grapefruit: The United States 2024-2025 grapefruit crop is forecast at 299,000 tons, up 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 13 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida forecast, at 1.20 million boxes (51,000 tons), is up 9 percent from previous forecast but down 33 percent from the last season. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts were carried forward from the previous forecast. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 1.02 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 9 percent from the last season's final utilization. The Florida tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 350,000 boxes (17,000 tons) is unchanged from last forecast but down 22 percent from last year. The California tangerine and mandarin production forecast was carried forward from the previous forecast. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September last year, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree was determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Revision policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 4.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 4.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 8.1 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for oranges of the differences between the March 1 forecast and the final estimate. Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20-years have averaged 185,000 tons, ranging from 7,000 tons to 733,000 tons. The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times. This does not imply that the March 1 forecast for oranges this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of March 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------------- : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :---------------------------------------------- :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : : Average : Smallest : Largest : final : final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- percent --- ------- thousands ------ number : Oranges ..................tons: 4.7 8.1 185 7 733 8 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Patrick Boyle, Chief, Crops Branch................................................... (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section............................................ (202) 720-2127 Irwin Anolik - Crop Progress and Condition, Flaxseed, Mustardseed............... (202) 720-7621 Joshua Bates - Hemp, Oats, Soybeans............................................. (202) 690-3234 Natasha Bruton - Barley, Cotton System Consumption and Stocks, Grain Crushings.. (202) 690-1042 David Colwell - Fats and Oils, Flour Milling Products........................... (202) 720-8800 Michelle Harder - Hay, Peanuts.................................................. (202) 690-8533 James Johanson - Rye, Wheat..................................................... (202) 720-8068 Greg Lemmons - Corn, Proso Millet, Rice......................................... (202) 720-9526 Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum................................. (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Canola, Rapeseed, Safflower, Sunflower......................... (202) 720-7369 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section................... (202) 720-2127 Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Carrots, Coffee, Cranberries, Garlic, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco............................................................... (202) 720-4288 Bret Holliman - Apricots, Chickpeas, Nectarines, Peaches, Snap Beans, Sweet Corn, Tomatoes................................................................. (202) 720-7235 Robert Little - Blueberries, Cabbage, Dry Edible Beans, Kale, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup, Pears, Raspberries, Spinach.................................. (202) 720-3250 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Asparagus, Celery, Grapefruit, Kiwifruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges, Pistachios............... (202) 720-5412 Chris Singh - Apples, Cucumbers, Hazelnuts, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes.......................... (202) 720-4285 Antonio Torres - Beets, Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Grapes, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons.............. (202) 720-2157 Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cauliflower, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Hops, Papayas, Pecans............................ (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov. Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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