Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released March 9, 2022, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Down 3 Percent from February Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2021-2022 season is 3.78 million tons, down 3 percent from the previous forecast and down 15 percent from the 2020-2021 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 41.2 million boxes (1.85 million tons), is down 5 percent from the previous forecast and down 22 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 18.2 million boxes (819,000 tons), up 4 percent from the previous forecast but down 20 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 23.0 million boxes (1.04 million tons), is down 12 percent from the previous forecast and down 24 percent from last season's final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 8.60 million boxes (344,000 tons), unchanged from previous forecast but down 9 percent from the previous season. This results in a California all orange forecast of 47.6 million boxes (1.90 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 5 percent from last season's final utilization. The forecast for Texas is carried forward from the previous forecast. This report was approved on March 9, 2022. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Seth Meyer Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons Contents Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2020 and 2021................ 4 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2020-2021 and Forecasted March 1, 2022............................................................................................ 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2021 and 2022.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2021 and 2022.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2021 and 2022.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2021 and 2022................................ 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12 February Weather Summary................................................................................. 13 February Agricultural Summary............................................................................ 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Reliability of March 1 Crop Production Forecasts......................................................... 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2020 and 2021 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/ State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 acres -- ----- tons ----- --- 1,000 tons --- : For sugar : Florida ............: 409.0 388.0 44.3 42.4 18,119 16,451 Louisiana ..........: 461.0 466.0 32.9 29.0 15,167 13,514 Texas ..............: 33.4 34.3 31.5 30.8 1,052 1,056 : United States ......: 903.4 888.3 38.0 34.9 34,338 31,021 : For seed : Florida ............: 14.3 15.5 47.3 47.5 676 736 Louisiana ..........: 27.4 29.3 36.5 34.5 1,000 1,011 Texas ..............: 2.5 2.1 34.3 33.5 86 70 : United States ......: 44.2 46.9 39.9 38.7 1,762 1,817 : For sugar and seed : Florida ............: 423.3 403.5 44.4 42.6 18,795 17,187 Louisiana ..........: 488.4 495.3 33.1 29.3 16,167 14,525 Texas ..............: 35.9 36.4 31.7 30.9 1,138 1,126 : United States ......: 947.6 935.2 38.1 35.1 36,100 32,838 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2020-2021 and Forecasted March 1, 2022 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2020-2021 : 2021-2022 : 2020-2021 : 2021-2022 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 boxes ----- ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all ..............: 50,100 47,600 2,004 1,904 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 3/ .: 40,600 39,000 1,624 1,560 Valencia ....................: 9,500 8,600 380 344 : Florida, all .................: 52,800 41,200 2,377 1,854 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 22,700 18,200 1,022 819 Valencia ....................: 30,100 23,000 1,355 1,035 : Texas, all 2/ ................: 1,050 400 45 17 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 1,000 300 43 13 Valencia ....................: 50 100 2 4 : United States, all ...........: 103,950 89,200 4,426 3,775 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 64,300 57,500 2,689 2,392 Valencia ....................: 39,650 31,700 1,737 1,383 : Grapefruit : California 2/ ................: 3,900 3,500 156 140 Florida ......................: 4,100 3,900 174 166 Texas 2/ .....................: 2,400 1,600 96 64 : United States ................: 10,400 9,000 426 370 : Tangerines and mandarins 4/ : California 2/ ................: 28,100 21,000 1,124 840 Florida ......................: 890 800 42 38 : United States ................: 28,990 21,800 1,166 878 : Lemons 2/ : Arizona ......................: 800 1,400 32 56 California ...................: 21,300 23,000 852 920 : United States ................: 22,100 24,400 884 976 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and mid-season varieties in Florida and Texas. 4/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2021 and 2022 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,660 1,948 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 93,357 85,388 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,481 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) 50,736 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 15,246 All other ............................: (NA) 35,490 Oats ...................................: 2,550 650 Proso millet ...........................: 725 662 Rice ...................................: 2,532 2,488 Rye ....................................: 2,133 294 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 7,305 6,490 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 331 Wheat, all .............................: 46,703 37,163 Winter ...............................: 33,648 34,397 25,464 Durum ................................: 1,635 1,534 Other spring .........................: 11,420 10,165 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,152.0 2,089.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 325 268 Mustard seed ...........................: 103.0 89.3 Peanuts ................................: 1,585.2 1,545.0 Rapeseed ...............................: 14.3 12.5 Safflower ..............................: 152.0 135.0 Soybeans for beans .....................: 87,195 86,332 Sunflower ..............................: 1,288.5 1,243.8 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 11,219.5 9,968.3 Upland ...............................: 11,093.0 9,844.5 American Pima ........................: 126.5 123.8 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,160.0 1,107.6 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 935.2 Tobacco ................................: (NA) 218.9 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 368.5 351.0 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,394.0 1,335.6 Dry edible peas ........................: 977.0 834.0 Lentils ................................: 708.0 549.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 60.9 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 44.0 Potatoes ...............................: 943.0 935.7 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 14.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2021 and 2022 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 60.4 117,673 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 177.0 15,115,170 Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.1 130,317 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.37 120,196 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.23 49,245 All other ........................tons: 2.00 70,951 Oats ............................bushels: 61.3 39,836 Proso millet ....................bushels: 23.2 15,376 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,709 191,796 Rye .............................bushels: 33.4 9,808 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 69.0 447,810 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 15.4 5,083 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 44.3 1,645,764 Winter ........................bushels: 50.2 1,277,365 Durum .........................bushels: 24.3 37,259 Other spring ..................bushels: 32.6 331,140 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,302 2,720,550 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 5,377.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 10.1 2,708 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 491 43,834 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 4,135 6,389,300 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 1,809 22,616 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,001 135,175 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 51.4 4,435,232 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,530 1,902,985 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 849 17,624.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 841 17,257.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,423 367.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 33.2 36,751 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 35.1 32,838 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,183 477,973 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 815 2,861 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 1,701 22,721 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,025 8,549 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 606 3,327 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,900 115,630.9 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 3,424 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 757,987 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 104 4,566 Potatoes ............................cwt: 438 409,671 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 119 1,775 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2021 and 2022 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,076,480 788,340 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 37,780,640 34,555,670 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,622,800 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 20,532,350 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,169,900 All other ....................: (NA) 14,362,450 Oats ...........................: 1,031,960 263,050 Proso millet ...................: 293,400 267,900 Rice ...........................: 1,024,680 1,006,870 Rye ............................: 863,200 118,980 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,956,260 2,626,440 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 133,950 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,900,240 15,039,490 Winter .......................: 13,617,010 13,920,120 10,305,030 Durum ........................: 661,670 620,790 Other spring .................: 4,621,560 4,113,670 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 870,890 845,400 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 131,520 108,460 Mustard seed ...................: 41,680 36,140 Peanuts ........................: 641,510 625,250 Rapeseed .......................: 5,790 5,060 Safflower ......................: 61,510 54,630 Soybeans for beans .............: 35,286,940 34,937,700 Sunflower ......................: 521,440 503,350 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,540,420 4,034,070 Upland .......................: 4,489,230 3,983,970 American Pima ................: 51,190 50,100 Sugarbeets .....................: 469,440 448,230 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 378,470 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 88,600 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 149,130 142,050 Dry edible beans ...............: 564,140 540,500 Dry edible peas ................: 395,380 337,510 Lentils ........................: 286,520 222,170 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 24,630 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 17,810 Potatoes .......................: 381,620 378,670 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 6,030 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2021 and 2022 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 3.25 2,562,030 Corn for grain .........................: 11.11 383,943,000 Corn for silage ........................: 45.07 118,221,590 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.31 109,039,980 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.24 44,674,310 All other ............................: 4.48 64,365,660 Oats ...................................: 2.20 578,220 Proso millet ...........................: 1.30 348,720 Rice ...................................: 8.64 8,699,720 Rye ....................................: 2.09 249,130 Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.33 11,374,900 Sorghum for silage .....................: 34.42 4,611,220 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 2.98 44,790,360 Winter ...............................: 3.37 34,764,180 Durum ................................: 1.63 1,014,020 Other spring .........................: 2.19 9,012,150 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 1.46 1,234,020 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 4,877,930 Flaxseed ...............................: 0.63 68,790 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.55 19,880 Peanuts ................................: 4.64 2,898,140 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.03 10,260 Safflower ..............................: 1.12 61,310 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.45 120,707,230 Sunflower ..............................: 1.71 863,180 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.95 3,837,170 Upland ...............................: 0.94 3,757,270 American Pima ........................: 1.59 79,900 Sugarbeets .............................: 74.38 33,339,950 Sugarcane ..............................: 78.71 29,790,130 Tobacco ................................: 2.45 216,800 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 0.91 129,770 Dry edible beans .......................: 1.91 1,030,610 Dry edible peas ........................: 1.15 387,780 Lentils ................................: 0.68 150,910 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 2.13 52,450 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 17,120 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 343,820 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.12 2,070 Potatoes ...............................: 49.07 18,582,370 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.13 810 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2021 and 2022 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2021-2022 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 426 370 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 884 976 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 4,426 3,775 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 1,166 878 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 10,525.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 55,500 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 369,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 142.0 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: 27,120 Cranberries .........................barrel: 7,900,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 6,470,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 696,500 Pears .................................tons: 670,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,800,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 258,000 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 670,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2020-2021 and 2021-2022. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2021 and 2022 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2021-2022 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 386,460 335,660 Lemons ....................................: 801,950 885,410 Oranges ...................................: 4,015,200 3,424,620 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 1,057,780 796,510 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 4,774,060 Apricots ..................................: 50,350 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 334,750 Cherries, Tart ............................: 64,410 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: 12,300 Cranberries ...............................: 358,340 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 5,869,490 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 631,850 Pears .....................................: 607,810 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,270,060 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 117,030 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 607,810 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2020-2021 and 2021-2022. February Weather Summary For the second month in a row, meager precipitation fell in the West, except across the northern tier. As a result, prospects dimmed for adequate spring and summer runoff in many river basins from Oregon and California to the central and southern Rockies, with only about a month remaining in the Western snow accumulation season. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the average water equivalency of the Sierra Nevada snowpack remained nearly steady between 15 and 16 inches throughout January and February, while a normal year would have featured a 2-month increase of well over a foot. As a result, snow-water equivalency as a percent of average for the date fell from nearly 160 percent in late-December 2021 to 63 percent by March 1. A few areas of the West-including the northern Cascades, portions of the northern and central Rockies, and the Wasatch Range-fared better, with near-normal snowpack in place as February ended. Meanwhile, worsening drought extended across portions of the central and southern Plains, where rangeland, pastures, and winter grains further deteriorated. By February 27, topsoil moisture was rated 75 to 80 percent very short to short in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, according to USDA/NASS. On that date, winter wheat was rated 75 percent very poor to poor in Texas, along with 65 percent in Oklahoma and 38 percent in Kansas. Texas also reported 69 percent of its rangeland, pastures, and oats were rated in very poor to poor condition. During February, short-term dryness notably worsened across much of Nebraska, extending into Iowa and northwestern Missouri, as well as portions of neighboring States. In contrast, multiple February storms produced significant precipitation from the mid-South into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the lower Great Lakes region, and parts of the Northeast. Along the axis of wetness, precipitation fell in a variety of forms, including snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. The wintry weather caused periodic travel disruptions, while repeated rounds of rain led to pockets of lowland flooding. During the week ending February 20, topsoil moisture was rated at least one-third surplus in Indiana (60 percent), Ohio (55 percent), Michigan (52 percent), and Illinois (40 percent). Farther north, drought was fully eradicated by month's end in western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas, where persistently cold weather allowed snow cover to build to the point where spring flooding may occur, especially in the Red River Valley of the North and surrounding basins. However, overall drought coverage in the United States continued to grow, increasing nearly 4 percentage points during the month to reach 59.2 percent of the Lower 48 States by March 1. National drought coverage was last greater more than 9 years ago, on January 8, 2013. The long-running drought has resulted in national drought coverage exceeding 40 percent for a Drought Monitor-era record 75 consecutive weeks (September 29, 2020, to March 1, 2022). In addition, drought coverage has surpassed 50 percent for 15 weeks in a row, starting November 23, 2021, second only to a 42-week streak set from June 26, 2012, to April 9, 2013. On March 1, drought covered 90.4 percent of the 11-state Western region, while extreme to exceptional drought (D3 to D4) was affecting nearly one-quarter (23.7 percent) of that area. Elsewhere, periods of snow accompanied persistently cold conditions across much of the North, while unusually dry February weather plagued the southern Atlantic region and many areas along the Gulf Coast. In the southern Atlantic States, dryness and spring-like warmth reduced topsoil moisture for pastures and spring-sown crops. By February 27, Florida's topsoil moisture was rated 44 percent very short to short. In addition, Florida's pastures were rated 57 percent in very poor to poor condition, as grasses burned back by late-January freezes were slow to recover due to short-term dryness. Much of the remainder of the country noted near- or below-normal February temperatures, although chronically frigid conditions (temperatures averaging 5 to 10°F below normal) were largely limited to the upper Great Lakes region and parts of North Dakota. Monthly temperatures also averaged 5 to 10°F below normal in portions of the western Gulf Coast region. Several fleeting surges of cold air reached deep into the western and central United States, resulting in occasional sub-zero temperatures as far south as the southern High Plains and late-February freezes in California's Central Valley and adjacent areas closer to the Pacific Coast. February Agricultural Summary February was cooler than normal for most of the Nation. Parts of the Great Lakes, New Mexico, Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, Rockies, and Texas recorded temperatures 6°F or more below normal. In contrast, most of the eastern third of the Nation was warmer than normal for the month. Parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast recorded temperatures 3°F above normal. Most of the western half of the Nation remained dryer than normal during February. In contrast, parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and Mississippi Valley received at least twice the normal amount of precipitation for the month. Crop Comments Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 32.8 million tons, down 2 percent from last month and down 9 percent from 2020. Producers intend to harvest 935,200 acres for sugar and seed during the 2021 crop year, up slightly from last month but down 1 percent from 2020. Yields for sugar and seed are expected to average 35.1 tons per acre, down 0.7 ton from last month and down 3.0 tons from 2020. Grapefruit: The United States 2021-2022 grapefruit crop is forecast at 370,000 tons, down 2 percent from the previous forecast and down 13 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida forecast, at 3.90 million boxes (166,000 tons), is down 5 percent from previous forecast and down 5 percent from the last season. The California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts were carried forward from the previous forecast. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 878,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 25 percent from the last season's final utilization. The Florida tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 800,000 boxes (38,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 10 percent from last year. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast was carried forward from the previous forecast. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September last year, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree was determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Revision policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 4.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 4.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 7.0 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the March 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using oranges again as an example, changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20-years have averaged 187,000 tons, ranging from 8,000 tons to 733,000 tons. The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 9 times and above 11 times. The difference does not imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of March 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------- : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :---------------------------------------- :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- percent --- ----- millions ----- number : Oranges 1/ ...............tons: 4.0 7.0 187 8 733 9 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch.................................................. (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section (202) 720-2127 Irwin Anolik - Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Joshua Bates - Oats, Soybeans (202) 690-3234 David Colwell - Current Agricultural Industrial Reports (202) 720-8800 Michelle Harder - Barley, County Estimates, Hay (202) 690-8533 James Johanson - Rye, Wheat (202) 720-8068 Greg Lemmons - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds................................... (202) 720-7369 Lihan Wei - Peanuts, Rice.................................................... (202) 720-7688 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section................ (202) 720-2127 .................................................................................. Fleming Gibson - Blueberries, Cranberries, Cucumbers, Pistachios, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes.......... (202) 720-2127 Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Apples, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco................................................ (202) 720-4288 Robert Little - Apricots, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup, Nectarines, Pears, Snap Beans, Spinach, Tomatoes.................................. (202) 720-3250 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Cauliflower, Celery, Garlic, Grapefruit, Hazelnuts, Kiwifruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges..... (202) 720-5412 Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Papayas, Peaches, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons............. (202) 720-2157 Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans.......................... (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and other agency's archived reports. 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