Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released January 10, 2025, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Down Less Than 1 Percent from December Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2024-2025 season is 2.48 million tons, down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 10 percent from the 2023-2024 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 12.0 million boxes (540,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast and down 33 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 5.00 million boxes (225,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast and down 26 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 7.00 million boxes (315,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast and down 38 percent from last season's final utilization. The California all orange forecast is 47.4 million boxes (1.90 million tons), down 1 percent from previous forecast and down less than 1 percent from last season's final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is 39.0 million boxes (1.56 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 2 percent from last season's final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 8.40 million boxes (336,000 tons), down 3 percent from the previous forecast and down 10 percent from last season's final utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 900,000 boxes (39,000 tons), is up 6 percent from the previous forecast but down 24 percent from last season's final utilization. This report was approved on January 10, 2025. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Seth Meyer Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Lance Honig Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2023-2024 and Forecasted January 1, 2025.......................................................................................... 4 Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2023 and 2024...................... 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2024 and 2025.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2024 and 2025.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2024 and 2025.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2024 and 2025................................ 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12 December Weather Summary................................................................................. 13 December Agricultural Summary............................................................................ 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Reliability of January 1 Crop Production Forecasts....................................................... 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2023-2024 and Forecasted January 1, 2025 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2023-2024 : 2024-2025 : 2023-2024 : 2024-2025 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 boxes ----- ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all ............: 47,500 47,400 1,900 1,896 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 38,200 39,000 1,528 1,560 Valencia ..................: 9,300 8,400 372 336 : Florida, all ...............: 17,960 12,000 808 540 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 6,760 5,000 304 225 Valencia ..................: 11,200 7,000 504 315 : Texas, all .................: 1,180 900 50 39 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 690 600 29 26 Valencia ..................: 490 300 21 13 : United States, all .........: 66,640 60,300 2,758 2,475 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 45,650 44,600 1,861 1,811 Valencia ..................: 20,990 15,700 897 664 : Grapefruit : California .................: 4,300 3,700 172 148 Florida ....................: 1,790 1,200 76 51 Texas ......................: 2,400 2,500 96 100 : United States ..............: 8,490 7,400 344 299 : Tangerines and mandarins 3/ : California .................: 27,400 25,000 1,096 1,000 Florida ....................: 450 300 21 14 : United States ..............: 27,850 25,300 1,117 1,014 : Lemons : Arizona ....................: 950 900 38 36 California .................: 24,600 26,000 984 1,040 Florida 4/ .................: (NA) 600 (NA) 27 : United States ..............: 25,550 27,500 1,022 1,103 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 3/ Includes tangelos and tangors. 4/ Estimates began with the 2024-2025 crop year. Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2023 and 2024 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : May 1 : December 1 State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 tons : Alabama .......: 160 135 1,100 1,330 Arizona .......: 20 50 460 325 Arkansas ......: 200 260 1,550 1,650 California ....: 325 225 1,550 1,400 Colorado ......: 170 800 1,650 1,890 Connecticut ...: 7 7 42 43 Delaware ......: 2 2 13 9 Florida .......: 30 80 470 420 Georgia .......: 120 230 930 740 Idaho .........: 460 740 2,550 2,200 : Illinois ......: 240 225 860 1,000 Indiana .......: 220 190 850 820 Iowa ..........: 380 455 2,140 2,830 Kansas ........: 720 1,250 3,600 3,300 Kentucky ......: 630 610 3,000 3,650 Louisiana .....: 90 85 560 700 Maine .........: 29 28 157 106 Maryland ......: 49 67 295 315 Massachusetts .: 11 9 40 43 Michigan ......: 230 290 870 1,100 : Minnesota .....: 560 390 1,330 2,550 Mississippi ...: 110 110 710 1,000 Missouri ......: 820 810 4,700 4,800 Montana .......: 450 1,590 3,850 3,800 Nebraska ......: 530 950 3,850 4,300 Nevada ........: 105 160 770 650 New Hampshire .: 6 7 40 34 New Jersey ....: 15 12 84 75 New Mexico ....: 30 110 250 680 New York ......: 490 320 845 1,170 : North Carolina : 125 180 930 850 North Dakota ..: 860 1,400 4,250 3,550 Ohio ..........: 350 300 1,120 1,100 Oklahoma ......: 400 1,800 5,900 4,800 Oregon ........: 230 400 1,200 1,600 Pennsylvania ..: 380 305 1,540 1,530 Rhode Island ..: 1 1 5 4 South Carolina : 70 100 460 330 South Dakota ..: 1,250 1,900 5,400 5,600 Tennessee .....: 400 410 2,750 2,570 : Texas .........: 940 1,500 5,500 7,600 Utah ..........: 480 620 1,360 1,350 Vermont .......: 33 37 150 140 Virginia ......: 320 410 1,750 1,600 Washington ....: 360 360 1,500 1,100 West Virginia .: 175 185 780 680 Wisconsin .....: 560 390 1,520 2,900 Wyoming .......: 190 515 1,490 1,300 : United States .: 14,333 21,010 76,721 81,534 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 : 2024 : 2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,373 1,875 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 90,594 82,896 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,100 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) 49,390 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 14,612 All other ............................: (NA) 34,778 Oats ...................................: 2,213 886 Proso millet ...........................: 481 427 Rice ...................................: 2,910 2,867 Rye ....................................: 2,206 402 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 6,300 5,605 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 306 Wheat, all .............................: 46,079 38,469 Winter ...............................: 33,390 34,115 26,103 Durum ................................: 2,064 2,036 Other spring .........................: 10,625 10,330 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,751.5 2,710.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 148 140 Mustard seed ...........................: 185.0 176.9 Peanuts ................................: 1,801.0 1,758.0 Rapeseed ...............................: 17.5 15.7 Safflower ..............................: 116.6 108.0 Soybeans for beans .....................: 87,050 86,050 Sunflower ..............................: 720.8 686.1 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 11,182.0 8,271.2 Upland ...............................: 10,975.0 8,070.5 American Pima ........................: 207.0 200.7 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,104.3 1,085.5 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 927.6 Tobacco ................................: (NA) 167.5 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 502.0 492.4 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,533.0 1,503.6 Dry edible peas ........................: 976.0 939.9 Lentils ................................: 936.0 903.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 44.8 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 23.2 Potatoes ...............................: 930.0 925.4 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 10.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 : 2024 : 2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 76.7 143,836 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 179.3 14,866,744 Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.2 123,093 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.48 122,462 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.41 49,840 All other ........................tons: 2.09 72,622 Oats ............................bushels: 76.5 67,793 Proso millet ....................bushels: 32.9 14,061 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,748 222,133 Rye .............................bushels: 36.6 14,729 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 61.3 343,850 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 13.3 4,062 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 51.2 1,971,301 Winter ........................bushels: 51.7 1,348,930 Durum .........................bushels: 39.3 80,051 Other spring ..................bushels: 52.5 542,320 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,784 4,834,030 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 4,401.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 17.3 2,420 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 577 102,015 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,668 6,448,020 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,019 31,705 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,200 129,585 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 50.7 4,366,492 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,670 1,145,605 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 836 14,414.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 829 13,946.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,119 468.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 32.5 35,278 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 37.6 34,844 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 1,942 325,220 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,144 5,632 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 2,081 31,289 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,775 16,679 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,002 9,049 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,944 87,072.2 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 5,860 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 658,739 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 103 2,391 Potatoes ............................cwt: 454 420,242 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 132 1,357 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 : 2024 : 2025 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 960,330 758,790 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 36,662,490 33,547,180 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,468,610 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 19,987,640 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 5,913,330 All other ....................: (NA) 14,074,310 Oats ...........................: 895,580 358,560 Proso millet ...................: 194,660 172,800 Rice ...........................: 1,177,650 1,160,250 Rye ............................: 892,750 162,690 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,549,550 2,268,290 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 123,840 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,647,710 15,568,020 Winter .......................: 13,512,600 13,806,000 10,563,620 Durum ........................: 835,280 823,950 Other spring .................: 4,299,830 4,180,450 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 1,113,500 1,096,710 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 59,890 56,660 Mustard seed ...................: 74,870 71,590 Peanuts ........................: 728,850 711,450 Rapeseed .......................: 7,080 6,350 Safflower ......................: 47,190 43,710 Soybeans for beans .............: 35,228,260 34,823,570 Sunflower ......................: 291,700 277,660 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,525,240 3,347,270 Upland .......................: 4,441,470 3,266,050 American Pima ................: 83,770 81,220 Sugarbeets .....................: 446,900 439,290 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 375,390 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 67,770 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 203,150 199,270 Dry edible beans ...............: 620,390 608,490 Dry edible peas ................: 394,980 380,370 Lentils ........................: 378,790 365,440 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 18,130 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 9,390 Potatoes .......................: 376,360 374,500 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 4,170 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 : 2024 : 2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 4.13 3,131,660 Corn for grain .........................: 11.26 377,632,690 Corn for silage ........................: 45.24 111,668,090 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.56 111,095,660 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.65 45,214,090 All other ............................: 4.68 65,881,570 Oats ...................................: 2.74 984,010 Proso millet ...........................: 1.85 318,900 Rice ...................................: 8.68 10,075,780 Rye ....................................: 2.30 374,130 Sorghum for grain ......................: 3.85 8,734,190 Sorghum for silage .....................: 29.76 3,684,980 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.45 53,650,020 Winter ...............................: 3.48 36,711,860 Durum ................................: 2.64 2,178,630 Other spring .........................: 3.53 14,759,530 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2.00 2,192,680 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 3,992,520 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.08 61,470 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.65 46,270 Peanuts ................................: 4.11 2,924,770 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.26 14,380 Safflower ..............................: 1.34 58,780 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.41 118,836,440 Sunflower ..............................: 1.87 519,640 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.94 3,138,280 Upland ...............................: 0.93 3,036,380 American Pima ........................: 1.25 101,890 Sugarbeets .............................: 72.85 32,003,660 Sugarcane ..............................: 84.21 31,609,950 Tobacco ................................: 2.18 147,520 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.28 255,460 Dry edible beans .......................: 2.33 1,419,250 Dry edible peas ........................: 1.99 756,550 Lentils ................................: 1.12 410,460 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 2.18 39,500 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 29,300 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 298,800 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.12 1,080 Potatoes ...............................: 50.90 19,061,860 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.15 620 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2025-2026 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 344 299 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,022 1,103 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 2,758 2,475 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 1,117 1,014 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 11,110.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 36,000 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 355,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 222.0 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: Cranberries .........................barrel: 8,240,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 6,365,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 719,000 Pears .................................tons: 520,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,800,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 270,900 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 670,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2024-2025 and 2025-2026. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2025-2026 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 312,070 271,250 Lemons ....................................: 927,140 1,000,620 Oranges ...................................: 2,502,020 2,245,280 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 1,013,330 919,890 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 5,039,410 Apricots ..................................: 32,660 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 322,050 Cherries, Tart ............................: 100,700 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: Cranberries ...............................: 373,760 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 5,774,230 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 652,270 Pears .....................................: 471,740 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,270,060 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 122,880 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 607,810 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2024-2025 and 2025-2026. December Weather Summary Even without an official declaration of La Niņa development, December's atmospheric patterns across the United States were consistent with those typically observed during La Niņa. Notably, warmer- and drier-than-normal weather dominated the Nation's southwestern quadrant, from southern California to the central and southern High Plains. Conversely, Pacific storm systems frequently affected northern California and the Northwest. Consequently, there was a sharp divide between mostly favorable early-season mountain snowpack in the Northwest and non-existent to deficient snowpack in the Southwest. Farther east, episodic cold outbreaks-also typical of La Niņa- led to substantial day-to-day temperature variations across the central and eastern United States. Still, monthly temperatures averaged 2 to 10°F above normal in most locations from the Pacific Coast to the Mississippi Valley, with colder-than-normal conditions largely limited to portions of the Atlantic Coast States. The warmest weather, relative to normal, affected the northern High Plains and eastern slopes of the northern Rockies, where frequent downslope (chinook) winds kept cold air and most precipitation at bay. Meanwhile, key winter agricultural regions in Deep South Texas and peninsular Florida escaped December freezes, despite several incursions of chilly air. Despite the return of dry weather across the central and southern High Plains, winter wheat continued to benefit from precipitation that had fallen during November. Farther north, however, pockets of significant drought continued to adversely affect a portion of the northern Plains' wheat. Despite wheat lacking a protective snow cover, except in some northern production areas, the crop was overwintering well. Exceptions included areas where wheat fields were exhibiting drought-related uneven emergence or poor establishment. Elsewhere, abundant December precipitation from eastern Texas into the mid-South and Midwest reduced drought coverage and intensity, while portions of the lower Southeast-including much of Florida-ended the year on a dry note. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, drought coverage across the Lower 48 States stood at 38.06 percent on December 31, down from a late-October peak of 54.08 percent. The month ended with unusual warmth affecting a broad area-a fitting close to one of the Nation's warmest years on record. On December 30, parts of Texas narrowly missed experiencing triple-digit heat, as Faith Ranch-near Carrizo Springs-topped out at 99°F. On the same day, the reading of 91°F in Del Rio, Texas, tied a monthly record originally set on December 14, 2019. Later, it was the warmest New Year's Eve on record in several Eastern cities and towns, including Miami, Florida (84°F), and Saint Johnsbury, Vermont (47°F). One byproduct of the late-month warmth was a 4-day severe weather outbreak starting December 26 that spawned several dozen tornadoes-mostly from eastern Texas to the southern Atlantic States-and a barrage of wind-damage reports peaking on December 28. December Agricultural Summary Most of the Nation was warmer than normal during the month of December. Parts of the Northern Rockies, as well as locations in the Great Plains, recorded temperatures 9°F or more above normal. In contrast, much of the East Coast was moderately cooler than normal. While most of the East Coast, Central Plains, and Southwest remained drier than normal, parts of the Midwest, Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, Northern Rockies, and South recorded at least twice than normal amount of precipitation. Parts of the Pacific Northwest Coast recorded 18 inches or more of rain for the month. Nationwide, producers had sown 97 percent of the intended 2025 winter wheat acreage by November 24, equal to last year but 1 percentage point behind the 5-year average. Planting progress was complete or nearing completion in 16 of the 18 estimating States. Nationwide, 89 percent of the winter wheat acreage had emerged by November 24, one percentage point behind last year but equal to the 5-year average. As of November 24, fifty-five percent of the 2025 winter wheat acreage was reported in good to excellent condition, 5 percentage points above the same time last year. By November 24, eighty-four percent of the Nation's cotton acreage was harvested, 3 percentage points ahead of last year and 4 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Cotton harvest progress was ahead of the 5-year average pace in 12 of the 15 estimating States. Ninety-three percent of the Nation's peanut acreage was harvested as of November 24, two percentage points behind both last year and the 5-year average. Peanut harvest progress was complete or nearing completion in 7 of the 8 estimating States. By November 24, ninety-three percent of this year's sunflower crop was harvested, 9 percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. Sunflower harvest progress was complete or nearing completion in all 4 estimating States. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The United States 2024-2025 grapefruit crop is forecast at 299,000 tons, up 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 13 percent from last season's final utilization. California's grapefruit forecast at 3.70 million boxes (148,000 tons), is down 12 percent from the previous forecast and down 14 percent from last season. The Texas grapefruit forecast at 2.50 million boxes (100,000 tons) is up 32 percent from the previous forecast and up 4 percent from the 2023- 2024 season. The Florida forecast, at 1.20 million boxes (51,000 tons), is unchanged from previous forecast but down 33 percent from the last season. Lemons: The 2024-2025 United States lemon crop is forecast at 1.10 million tons, up less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and up 5 percent from last season's final utilization in comparable States. The California forecast, at 26.0 million boxes (1.04 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 6 percent from the 2023-2024 season. The Arizona forecast, at 900,000 boxes (36,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 5 percent from last year. Beginning in 2024-2025, estimates for lemons began in Florida. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 1.01 million tons, down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 9 percent from the last season's final utilization. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 25.0 million boxes (1.00 million tons) is unchanged from last forecast but down 9 percent from last year. Hay stocks on farms: All hay stored on United States farms as of December 1, 2024, totaled 81.5 million tons, up 6 percent from December 1, 2023. Disappearance from May 1, 2024 - December 1, 2024, totaled 61.9 million tons, up 10 percent from the same period in 2023. Record high December 1 hay stock levels were estimated in New Mexico but record low levels were estimated in Ohio and Rhode Island. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree is determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. Revision policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of- season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 6.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 6.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 10.6 percent. Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 262,000 tons, ranging from 2,000 tons to 843,000 tons. The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 5 times and above 15 times. The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of January 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------- : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :---------------------------------------- :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- percent --- ----- millions ----- number : Oranges 1/ ...............tons: 6.1 10.6 262 2 843 5 15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Patrick Boyle, Chief, Crops Branch................................................... (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section............................................ (202) 720-2127 Irwin Anolik - Crop Progress and Condition, Flaxseed, Mustardseed............... (202) 720-7621 Joshua Bates - Hemp, Oats, Soybeans............................................. (202) 690-3234 Natasha Bruton - Barley, Cotton System Consumption and Stocks, Grain Crushings.. (202) 690-1042 David Colwell - Fats and Oils, Flour Milling Products........................... (202) 720-8800 Michelle Harder - Hay, Peanuts.................................................. (202) 690-8533 James Johanson - Rye, Wheat..................................................... (202) 720-8068 Greg Lemmons - Corn, Proso Millet, Rice......................................... (202) 720-9526 Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum................................. (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Canola, Rapeseed, Safflower, Sunflower......................... (202) 720-7369 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section................... (202) 720-2127 Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Carrots, Coffee, Cranberries, Garlic, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco............................................................... (202) 720-4288 Bret Holliman - Apricots, Chickpeas, Nectarines, Peaches, Snap Beans, Sweet Corn, Tomatoes................................................................. (202) 720-7235 Robert Little - Blueberries, Cabbage, Dry Edible Beans, Kale, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup, Pears, Raspberries, Spinach.................................. (202) 720-3250 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Asparagus, Celery, Grapefruit, Kiwifruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges, Pistachios............... (202) 720-5412 Chris Singh - Apples, Cucumbers, Hazelnuts, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes.......................... (202) 720-4285 Antonio Torres - Beets, Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Grapes, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons.............. (202) 720-2157 Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cauliflower, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Hops, Papayas, Pecans............................ 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