Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released April 9, 2021, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Down 4 Percent from March Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2020-2021 season is 4.45 million tons, down 4 percent from the previous forecast and down 15 percent from the revised 2019-2020 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 51.7 million boxes (2.33 million tons), is down 7 percent from the previous forecast and down 23 percent from last season's revised final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 22.7 million boxes (1.02 million tons), up 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 23 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 29.0 million boxes (1.31 million tons), is down 12 percent from the previous forecast and down 23 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The California all orange forecast is 52.0 million boxes (2.08 million tons), unchanged from previous forecast but down 4 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is 42.0 million boxes (1.68 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 3 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 10.0 million boxes (400,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 7 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 1.05 million boxes (45,000 tons), is down 30 percent from the previous forecast and down 22 percent from last season's final utilization. This report was approved on April 9, 2021. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Seth Meyer Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2019-2020 and Forecasted April 1, 2021............................................................................................ 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021................................ 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12 March Weather Summary.................................................................................... 13 March Agricultural Summary............................................................................... 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 13 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Reliability of April 1 Crop Production Forecasts......................................................... 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 This page intentionally left blank. Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2019-2020 and Forecasted April 1, 2021 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2019-2020 : 2020-2021 : 2019-2020 : 2020-2021 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 boxes ------ ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all ............: 54,100 52,000 2,164 2,080 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 43,300 42,000 1,732 1,680 Valencia ..................: 10,800 10,000 432 400 : Florida, all ...............: 67,400 51,700 3,033 2,327 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 29,650 22,700 1,334 1,022 Valencia ..................: 37,750 29,000 1,699 1,305 : Texas, all .................: 1,340 1,050 57 45 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 1,150 1,000 49 43 Valencia ..................: 190 50 8 2 : United States, all .........: 122,840 104,750 5,254 4,452 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 74,100 65,700 3,115 2,745 Valencia ..................: 48,740 39,050 2,139 1,707 : Grapefruit : California .................: 4,700 4,200 188 168 Florida, all ...............: 4,850 4,300 207 183 Red 3/ ....................: 4,060 (NA) 173 (NA) White 3/ ..................: 790 (NA) 34 (NA) Texas ......................: 4,400 2,400 176 96 : United States ..............: 13,950 10,900 571 447 : Tangerines and mandarins 4/ : California .................: 22,400 23,000 896 920 Florida ....................: 1,020 950 48 45 : United States ..............: 23,420 23,950 944 965 : Lemons : Arizona ....................: 1,800 1,800 72 72 California .................: 25,300 22,000 1,012 880 : United States ..............: 27,100 23,800 1,084 952 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 3/ Estimates discontinued in 2020-2021. 4/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,621 2,590 2,133 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 90,819 91,144 82,467 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,719 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) (NA) 52,238 51,714 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 16,230 All other ............................: (NA) 36,008 Oats ...................................: 2,984 2,488 1,004 Proso millet ...........................: 609 484 Rice ...................................: 3,036 2,710 2,987 Rye ....................................: 1,955 330 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 5,880 6,940 5,095 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 239 Wheat, all .............................: 44,349 46,358 36,746 Winter ...............................: 30,415 33,078 23,024 Durum ................................: 1,684 1,540 1,662 Other spring .........................: 12,250 11,740 12,060 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 1,825.0 2,115.0 1,789.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 305 400 296 Mustard seed ...........................: 97.0 91.4 Peanuts ................................: 1,664.2 1,625.5 1,615.8 Rapeseed ...............................: 11.2 10.1 Safflower ..............................: 136.0 126.7 Soybeans for beans .....................: 83,084 87,600 82,318 Sunflower ..............................: 1,718.7 1,216.0 1,665.7 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 12,092.5 12,036.0 8,701.5 Upland ...............................: 11,890.0 11,894.0 8,507.0 American Pima ........................: 202.5 142.0 194.5 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,162.2 1,169.0 1,142.3 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 947.6 Tobacco ................................: (NA) (NA) 198.1 195.8 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 269.8 290.0 262.9 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,740.0 1,540.0 1,676.5 Dry edible peas ........................: 999.0 893.0 973.0 Lentils ................................: 528.0 611.0 514.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 58.6 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 50.1 Potatoes ...............................: 921.0 914.1 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 17.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 77.5 165,324 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 172.0 14,182,479 Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.5 137,729 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.43 126,812 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.27 53,067 All other ........................tons: 2.05 73,745 Oats ............................bushels: 65.1 65,355 Proso millet ....................bushels: 19.0 9,210 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,619 227,583 Rye .............................bushels: 34.9 11,532 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 73.2 372,960 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 13.1 3,125 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 49.7 1,825,820 Winter ........................bushels: 50.9 1,171,022 Durum .........................bushels: 41.4 68,808 Other spring ..................bushels: 48.6 585,990 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,931 3,454,950 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 4,587.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 19.3 5,706 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 895 81,770 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,796 6,133,900 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 1,971 19,910 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,167 147,800 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 50.2 4,135,477 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,790 2,982,410 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 825 14,953.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 813 14,401.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,362 552.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 29.4 33,618 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 38.1 36,100 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 1,966 389,413 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,625 4,273 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 1,966 32,963 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 2,234 21,733 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,442 7,411 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,770 103,810.3 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 4,372 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 816,367 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 99 4,984 Potatoes ............................cwt: 453 414,248 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 121 2,134 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,060,690 1,048,150 863,200 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 36,753,540 36,885,070 33,373,570 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,719,110 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) (NA) 21,140,200 20,928,140 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,568,120 All other ....................: (NA) 14,572,080 Oats ...........................: 1,207,590 1,006,870 406,310 Proso millet ...................: 246,460 195,870 Rice ...........................: 1,228,640 1,096,710 1,208,810 Rye ............................: 791,170 133,550 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,379,580 2,808,550 2,061,900 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 96,720 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 17,947,600 18,760,620 14,870,740 Winter .......................: 12,308,650 13,386,340 9,317,580 Durum ........................: 681,500 623,220 672,590 Other spring .................: 4,957,450 4,751,060 4,880,560 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 738,560 855,920 723,990 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 123,430 161,880 119,790 Mustard seed ...................: 39,250 36,990 Peanuts ........................: 673,490 657,820 653,900 Rapeseed .......................: 4,530 4,090 Safflower ......................: 55,040 51,270 Soybeans for beans .............: 33,623,260 35,450,840 33,313,270 Sunflower ......................: 695,540 492,100 674,090 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,893,710 4,870,850 3,521,410 Upland .......................: 4,811,760 4,813,380 3,442,700 American Pima ................: 81,950 57,470 78,710 Sugarbeets .....................: 470,330 473,080 462,280 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 383,480 Tobacco ........................: (NA) (NA) 80,150 79,240 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 109,190 117,360 106,390 Dry edible beans ...............: 704,160 623,220 678,460 Dry edible peas ................: 404,290 361,390 393,760 Lentils ........................: 213,680 247,270 208,010 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 23,730 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 20,270 Potatoes .......................: 372,720 369,930 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 7,160 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 4.17 3,599,510 Corn for grain .........................: 10.79 360,251,560 Corn for silage ........................: 45.95 124,945,650 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.44 115,041,910 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.33 48,141,570 All other ............................: 4.59 66,900,340 Oats ...................................: 2.33 948,630 Proso millet ...........................: 1.07 208,880 Rice ...................................: 8.54 10,322,990 Rye ....................................: 2.19 292,930 Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.59 9,473,620 Sorghum for silage .....................: 29.31 2,834,950 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.34 49,690,680 Winter ...............................: 3.42 31,870,000 Durum ................................: 2.78 1,872,650 Other spring .........................: 3.27 15,948,030 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2.16 1,567,140 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 4,161,260 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.21 144,940 Mustard seed ...........................: 1.00 37,090 Peanuts ................................: 4.25 2,782,290 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.21 9,030 Safflower ..............................: 1.31 67,040 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.38 112,549,240 Sunflower ..............................: 2.01 1,352,800 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.92 3,255,630 Upland ...............................: 0.91 3,135,450 American Pima ........................: 1.53 120,180 Sugarbeets .............................: 65.97 30,497,740 Sugarcane ..............................: 85.40 32,749,370 Tobacco ................................: 2.20 176,630 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.82 193,820 Dry edible beans .......................: 2.20 1,495,180 Dry edible peas ........................: 2.50 985,790 Lentils ................................: 1.62 336,160 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 1.98 47,090 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 21,860 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 370,300 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.11 2,260 Potatoes ...............................: 50.79 18,789,970 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.14 970 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2020-2021 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 571 447 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,084 952 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 5,254 4,452 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 944 965 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 10,650.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 34,800 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 334,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 197.0 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: 27,590 Cranberries .........................barrel: 8,970,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 7,180,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 645,500 Pears .................................tons: 800,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 3,000,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: 71,000 Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 302,350 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 780,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2019-2020 and 2020-2021. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2020-2021 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 518,000 405,510 Lemons ....................................: 983,390 863,640 Oranges ...................................: 4,766,350 4,038,790 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 856,380 875,430 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 4,830,760 Apricots ..................................: 31,570 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 303,000 Cherries, Tart ............................: 89,360 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: 12,510 Cranberries ...............................: 406,870 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 6,513,590 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 585,590 Pears .....................................: 725,750 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,360,780 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: 64,410 Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 137,140 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 707,600 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2019-2020 and 2020-2021. March Weather Summary The effects of February's severe cold wave faded amid March warmth. In fact, consistently cooler-than-normal March weather was limited to areas west of the Rockies, where monthly temperatures averaged as much as 5°F below normal. In contrast, early-spring warmth dominated the central and eastern United States, boosting monthly temperatures at least 5 to 10°F above normal across portions of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. The weather pattern helping to drive that temperature regime-a Western trough and Eastern ridge-helped to suppress the Pacific storm track southward, leading to limited precipitation across the Pacific Coast States. Farther east, however, the same storms were able to tap into abundant moisture while traveling northeastward across the Nation's mid-section, leading to drought-easing rain and snow in central sections of the Rockies and Plains; multiple rounds of heavy rain and severe weather in the Southeast; and periodic Midwestern storminess. Precipitation mostly bypassed several areas, including the drought-affected northern Plains; southern and western Texas; and peninsular Florida. By late March, topsoil moisture was rated at least one-half very short to short in several states, including North Dakota (87 percent), New Mexico (84 percent), Montana (76 percent), South Dakota (66 percent), Florida (59 percent), Texas (55 percent), and Wyoming (55 percent). Rangeland, pastures, and winter wheat across the central Plains and environs benefited from the boost in soil moisture; any flooding was limited by antecedent dryness and unfrozen soils, which allowed much of the rain and melting snow to soak in. By March 28, at least one-half of the winter wheat was rated in good to excellent condition in several Plains States, including Oklahoma (61 percent) and Kansas (50 percent). Wheat across the Midwest and mid-South was also generally faring well, with 70 percent of the Illinois crop rated good to excellent. By late March, Southern planting was mostly progressing at a normal pace, or was ahead of schedule, except in a few areas where lowland flooding and wet soils inhibited fieldwork. By March 28, at least one-half of the intended corn acreage had been planted in Louisiana (74 percent) and Texas (50 percent). On the same date, Louisiana led the Nation in rice planting (43 percent complete), followed by Texas (39 percent). In Arizona, 26% of the cotton had been planted by March 28, compared to the 5-year average of 18 percent. During the 4 weeks ending March 30, drought coverage across the contiguous United States fell from 46.6 to 43.9 percent, on the strength of improving conditions in the Central States. However, worsening drought was noted in several areas, including the northern Plains and parts of Texas. In the 11-state Western region, drought coverage dipped from 79.9 to 75.2 percent, mainly due to improvement in the northern and central Rockies. In contrast, Southeastern flood events were particularly impressive in early March across Kentucky and late in the month in central Tennessee. Severe weather outbreaks, mainly on March 12-13, 16-18, 24-25, 27-28, and 30-31, spawned more than 175 tornadoes, according to preliminary reports-the highest March total since 225 twisters occurred in 2012. March Agricultural Summary March was warmer than average for the eastern third of the Nation as well as the Nation's midsection. Temperatures averaged 6°F or more above normal for much of the Great Lakes and the Great Plains. Parts of Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota recorded temperatures 9°F or more above normal. Most of the western third of the Nation was moderately cooler than normal. During March, large parts of the Mississippi Valley, Central Plains, and Eastern Rockies received at least double their normal amounts of precipitation. Most of California, Florida, and Texas, as well as the Northwest, Northern Plains, and Northern Rockies remained significantly drier than normal for the month. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The United States 2020-2021 grapefruit crop is forecast at 447,000 tons, down 21 percent from the previous forecast and down 22 percent from last season's revised final utilization. In Florida, expected production, at 4.30 million boxes (183,000 tons), is down 7 percent from the previous forecast and down 11 percent from last year. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 965,000 tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast but up 2 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 23.0 million boxes (920,000 tons) is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 3 percent from last season revised total. Lemons: The 2020-2021 United States lemon crop is forecast at 952,000 tons, down 8 percent from previous forecast and down 12 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The California forecast, at 22.0 million boxes (880,000 tons), is down 8 percent from the previous forecast and down 13 percent from the revised 2019-2020 season total. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September of last year, the number of bearing trees and number of fruit per tree is determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Revision policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 3.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.2 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the April 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using oranges again as an example, changes between the April 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20-years have averaged 151,000 tons, ranging from 0 ton to 502,000 tons. The April 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times, above 11 times and equal 1 time. The difference does not imply that the April 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of April 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------- : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :---------------------------------------- :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- percent --- ----- millions ----- number : Oranges 1/ ...............tons: 3.0 5.2 151 0 502 8 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch......................................................... (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section................................................ (202) 720-2127 Irwin Anolik - Crop Weather......................................................... (202) 720-7621 Joshua Bates - Oats, Soybeans....................................................... (202) 690-3234 David Colwell - Current Agricultural Industrial Reports............................. (202) 720-8800 Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum..................................... (202) 720-5944 James Johanson - Barley, County Estimates, Hay...................................... (202) 690-8533 Greg Lemmons - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet......................................... (202) 720-9526 Jean Porter - Rye, Wheat............................................................ (202) 720-8068 John Stephens - Peanuts, Rice....................................................... (202) 720-7688 Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.......................................... (202) 720-7369 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section....................... (202) 720-2127 ......................................................................................... Heidi Lanouette - Blueberries, Cranberries, Cucumbers, Pistachios, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes................. (202) 720-4285 Robert Little - Apricots, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup, Nectarines, Pears, Snap Beans, Spinach, Tomatoes......................................... (202) 720-3250 Anastasiya Osborne - Almonds, Apples, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Onions Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco....................................................... (202) 720-4288 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Cauliflower, Celery, Grapefruit, Garlic, Hazelnuts, Kiwifruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges............ (202) 720-5412 Fleming Gibson - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans................................. (202) 720-2127 Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Papayas, Peaches, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons.................... (202) 720-2157 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and other agency's archived reports. The new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing reports will be sent from the new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via e-mail, you will have to go to the new website, create a new account and re-subscribe to the reports. If you need instructions to set up an account or subscribe, they are located at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/help. You should whitelist notifications@usda-esmis.library.cornell.edu in your email client to avoid the emails going into spam/junk folders. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs and/or employment activities.) If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online at www.ascr.usda.gov/filing-program-discrimination-complaint-usda-customer, or at any USDA office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may also write a letter containing all of the information requested in the form. Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax (202) 690-7442 or email at program.intake@usda.gov.