Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released April 10, 2025, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Up 2 Percent from March Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2024-2025 season is 2.46 million tons, up 2 percent from the previous forecast but down 8 percent from the 2023-2024 revised utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 11.6 million boxes (522,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 36 percent from last season's revised utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 4.60 million boxes (207,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 32 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 7.00 million boxes (315,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 38 percent from last season's revised utilization. The California all orange forecast at 47.5 million boxes (1.90 million tons), is up 2 percent from the previous forecast and up 5 percent from last season's revised utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is 40.0 million boxes (1.60 million tons), up 3 percent from the previous forecast and up 4 percent from last season's revised utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 7.50 million boxes (300,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 6 percent from last season's revised utilization. The Texas all orange forecast at 880,000 boxes (38,000 tons) is down 2 percent from the previous forecast and down 25 percent from last season's final utilization. This report was approved on April 10, 2025. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Seth Meyer Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Lance Honig Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2023-2024 and Forecasted April 1, 2025............................................................................................ 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2024 and 2025.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2024 and 2025.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2024 and 2025.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2024 and 2025................................ 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12 March Weather Summary.................................................................................... 13 March Agricultural Summary............................................................................... 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Reliability of April 1 Crop Production Forecasts......................................................... 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 This page intentionally left blank. Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2023-2024 and Forecasted April 1, 2025 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2023-2024 : 2024-2025 : 2023-2024 : 2024-2025 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 boxes ----- ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all ............: 45,400 47,500 1,816 1,900 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 38,300 40,000 1,532 1,600 Valencia ..................: 7,100 7,500 284 300 : Florida, all ...............: 18,060 11,600 813 522 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 6,760 4,600 304 207 Valencia ..................: 11,300 7,000 509 315 : Texas, all .................: 1,180 880 50 38 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 690 530 29 23 Valencia ..................: 490 350 21 15 : United States, all .........: 64,640 59,980 2,679 2,460 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 45,750 45,130 1,865 1,830 Valencia ..................: 18,890 14,850 814 630 : Grapefruit : California .................: 3,900 4,300 156 172 Florida ....................: 1,790 1,300 76 55 Texas ......................: 2,400 2,300 96 92 : United States ..............: 8,090 7,900 328 319 : Tangerines and mandarins 3/ : California .................: 27,200 26,000 1,088 1,040 Florida ....................: 450 400 21 19 : United States ..............: 27,650 26,400 1,109 1,059 : Lemons : Arizona ....................: 950 950 38 38 California .................: 24,500 27,000 980 1,080 Florida 4/ .................: (NA) 600 (NA) 27 : United States ..............: 25,450 28,550 1,018 1,145 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons in Arizona-80, California-80, Florida-90. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 3/ Includes tangelos and tangors. 4/ Estimates began with the 2024-2025 crop year. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 : 2024 : 2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,373 2,317 1,875 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 90,594 95,326 82,896 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,100 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) (NA) 49,390 48,493 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 14,612 All other ............................: (NA) 34,778 Oats ...................................: 2,213 2,177 886 Proso millet ...........................: 481 427 Rice ...................................: 2,910 2,895 2,867 Rye ....................................: 2,206 402 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 6,300 6,565 5,605 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 306 Wheat, all .............................: 46,079 45,350 38,469 Winter ...............................: 33,390 33,315 26,103 Durum ................................: 2,064 2,015 2,036 Other spring .........................: 10,625 10,020 10,330 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,751.5 2,566.0 2,710.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 148 185 140 Mustard seed ...........................: 185.0 176.9 Peanuts ................................: 1,801.0 1,950.0 1,758.0 Rapeseed ...............................: 17.5 15.7 Safflower ..............................: 116.6 108.0 Soybeans for beans .....................: 87,050 83,495 86,050 Sunflower ..............................: 720.8 1,072.5 686.1 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 11,182.0 9,867.0 8,271.2 Upland ...............................: 10,975.0 9,710.0 8,070.5 American Pima ........................: 207.0 157.0 200.7 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,104.3 1,132.0 1,085.5 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 920.0 Tobacco ................................: (NA) (NA) 167.5 166.6 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 502.0 561.0 492.4 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,533.0 1,470.0 1,503.6 Dry edible peas ........................: 976.0 895.0 939.9 Lentils ................................: 936.0 1,100.0 903.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 44.8 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 23.2 Potatoes ...............................: 930.0 925.4 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 10.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 : 2024 : 2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 76.7 143,836 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 179.3 14,866,744 Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.2 123,093 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.48 122,462 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.41 49,840 All other ........................tons: 2.09 72,622 Oats ............................bushels: 76.5 67,793 Proso millet ....................bushels: 32.9 14,061 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,748 222,133 Rye .............................bushels: 36.6 14,729 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 61.3 343,850 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 13.3 4,062 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 51.2 1,971,301 Winter ........................bushels: 51.7 1,348,930 Durum .........................bushels: 39.3 80,051 Other spring ..................bushels: 52.5 542,320 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,784 4,834,030 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 4,401.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 17.3 2,420 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 577 102,015 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,668 6,448,020 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,019 31,705 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,200 129,585 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 50.7 4,366,492 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,670 1,145,605 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 836 14,414.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 829 13,946.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,119 468.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 32.5 35,278 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 37.4 34,381 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 1,942 325,220 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,144 5,632 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 2,081 31,289 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,775 16,679 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,002 9,049 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,944 87,072.2 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 5,860 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 658,739 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 103 2,391 Potatoes ............................cwt: 454 420,242 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 132 1,357 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 : 2024 : 2025 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 960,330 937,670 758,790 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 36,662,490 38,577,480 33,547,180 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,468,610 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) (NA) 19,987,640 19,624,630 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 5,913,330 All other ....................: (NA) 14,074,310 Oats ...........................: 895,580 881,010 358,560 Proso millet ...................: 194,660 172,800 Rice ...........................: 1,177,650 1,171,580 1,160,250 Rye ............................: 892,750 162,690 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,549,550 2,656,790 2,268,290 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 123,840 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,647,710 18,352,690 15,568,020 Winter .......................: 13,512,600 13,482,250 10,563,620 Durum ........................: 835,280 815,450 823,950 Other spring .................: 4,299,830 4,054,990 4,180,450 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 1,113,500 1,038,430 1,096,710 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 59,890 74,870 56,660 Mustard seed ...................: 74,870 71,590 Peanuts ........................: 728,850 789,150 711,450 Rapeseed .......................: 7,080 6,350 Safflower ......................: 47,190 43,710 Soybeans for beans .............: 35,228,260 33,789,590 34,823,570 Sunflower ......................: 291,700 434,030 277,660 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,525,240 3,993,080 3,347,270 Upland .......................: 4,441,470 3,929,540 3,266,050 American Pima ................: 83,770 63,540 81,220 Sugarbeets .....................: 446,900 458,110 439,290 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 372,310 Tobacco ........................: (NA) (NA) 67,770 67,420 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 203,150 227,030 199,270 Dry edible beans ...............: 620,390 594,890 608,490 Dry edible peas ................: 394,980 362,200 380,370 Lentils ........................: 378,790 445,160 365,440 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 18,130 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 9,390 Potatoes .......................: 376,360 374,500 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 4,170 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 : 2024 : 2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 4.13 3,131,660 Corn for grain .........................: 11.26 377,632,690 Corn for silage ........................: 45.24 111,668,090 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.56 111,095,660 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.65 45,214,090 All other ............................: 4.68 65,881,570 Oats ...................................: 2.74 984,010 Proso millet ...........................: 1.85 318,900 Rice ...................................: 8.68 10,075,780 Rye ....................................: 2.30 374,130 Sorghum for grain ......................: 3.85 8,734,190 Sorghum for silage .....................: 29.76 3,684,980 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.45 53,650,020 Winter ...............................: 3.48 36,711,860 Durum ................................: 2.64 2,178,630 Other spring .........................: 3.53 14,759,530 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2.00 2,192,680 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 3,992,520 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.08 61,470 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.65 46,270 Peanuts ................................: 4.11 2,924,770 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.26 14,380 Safflower ..............................: 1.34 58,780 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.41 118,836,440 Sunflower ..............................: 1.87 519,640 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.94 3,138,280 Upland ...............................: 0.93 3,036,380 American Pima ........................: 1.25 101,890 Sugarbeets .............................: 72.85 32,003,660 Sugarcane ..............................: 83.77 31,189,920 Tobacco ................................: 2.18 147,520 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.28 255,460 Dry edible beans .......................: 2.33 1,419,250 Dry edible peas ........................: 1.99 756,550 Lentils ................................: 1.12 410,460 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 2.18 39,500 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 29,300 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 298,800 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.12 1,080 Potatoes ...............................: 50.90 19,061,860 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.15 620 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2025-2026 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 328 319 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,018 1,145 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 2,679 2,460 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 1,109 1,059 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 11,110.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 36,000 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 355,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 222.0 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: Cranberries .........................barrel: 8,240,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 6,365,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 719,000 Pears .................................tons: 520,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,800,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 270,900 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 670,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2023-2024 and 2024-2025. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2025-2026 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 297,560 289,390 Lemons ....................................: 923,510 1,038,730 Oranges ...................................: 2,430,350 2,231,670 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 1,006,070 960,710 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 5,039,410 Apricots ..................................: 32,660 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 322,050 Cherries, Tart ............................: 100,700 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: Cranberries ...............................: 373,760 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 5,774,230 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 652,270 Pears .....................................: 471,740 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,270,060 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 122,880 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 607,810 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2023-2024 and 2024-2025. March Weather Summary Despite a turn from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions, significant drought persisted through March in much of the Nation's southwestern quadrant, including the southern High Plains. In addition, storm systems crossing the central Plains fueled mostly dry, windy weather farther south, leading to multiple rounds of blowing dust and a chronically elevated wildfire threat. High winds were particularly efficient at lofting dust across the southern half of the High Plains and portions of the Southwest on March 14 and 18, leading to substantial reductions in visibility and several chain-reaction vehicular accidents. The dry, windy, dusty weather also increased stress on rangeland, pastures, and winter grains. Drought concerns also persisted across portions of the northern Plains, where 50 percent of the winter wheat in South Dakota was rated in very poor to poor condition on March 30. On the same date, 34 percent of the wheat was rated very poor to poor in Nebraska, along with 33 percent in Texas, 27 percent in Oklahoma, and 17 percent in Kansas. Near the end of March, topsoil moisture rated very short to short across the ten states comprising the Rockies and Plains ranged from 46 percent in Montana to 98 percent in New Mexico. Trailing New Mexico were South Dakota (89 percent very short to short), Wyoming (68 percent), Nebraska (67 percent), Oklahoma (66 percent), and Texas (64 percent). In contrast, late-winter precipitation maintained generally favorable Western water-supply prospects along and north of a line from the Sierra Nevada to the central Rockies. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the average water equivalency of the high-elevation Sierra Nevada snowpack stood near 25 inches by April 1, very close to the long-term average. However, the distribution of the Sierra Nevada snowpack was irregular, ranging from slightly above 30 inches in the north to less than 20 inches in the south. Correspondingly, Southwestern snowpack ended the accumulation season significantly below average, especially across Arizona, New Mexico, and southern sections of Colorado and Utah. By early April, year-to-date wildfires in the United States had burned about 0.8 million acres, slightly above the 10-year average. However, Oklahoma accounted for more than one-quarter of the charred acreage (more than 220,000 acres), with most of the wildfire activity occurring in mid-March. Large March wildfires also dotted the Southeast, with the 16,000-acre Table Rock Complex in South Carolina still not fully contained by April 1. In southern Florida, the 344 Fire near Homestead burned nearly 27,000 acres of mostly tall grass. Farther north, an historic ice storm struck northeastern Wisconsin and northern Lower Michigan on March 28-29, knocking out electricity to hundreds of thousands of customers and downing large swaths of forest. More broadly, March precipitation across the north-central United States eased or eradicated drought, following a winter featuring below-average snowfall. Still, many areas from the northern Plains into the Northeast, generally excluding areas near the Great Lakes, reported seasonal snowfall deficits ranging from 10 to 30 inches. Elsewhere, March severe weather outbreaks spawned nearly 300 tornadoes, according to preliminary reports, mainly across the South and lower Midwest. The severe weather peaked on March 14-15, when eleven individual tornadoes resulted in nearly two dozen fatalities across Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Missouri. During March, warmth dominated much of the country, with temperatures averaging at least 5°F above normal across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. Cooler-than-normal conditions were limited to a few areas, mainly from California into parts of the Southwest. Cold air lurking over Canada also made some incursions into the northern United States and contributed to the magnitude of the late-month ice storm in the upper Great Lakes region. In contrast, temperatures occasionally topped 100°F in Deep South Texas, where a late-month deluge-peaking on March 27-ended a long-running dry spell but caused flash flooding. March Agricultural Summary March was warmer than average for most of the Nation. Parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Mississippi Valley, Northeast, Plains, and Northern Rockies recorded temperatures 6°F or more above normal. In contrast, much of California and Florida, as well as parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, were moderately cooler than normal. During March, much of the western half of the Nation received higher than normal amounts of precipitation. Parts of the Pacific Northwest, Rockies, and Southwest recorded at least twice the normal amount of precipitation. Much of the Midwest, New England, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Plains, and South, also recorded higher than normal amounts of precipitation, with the upper Midwest and South Texas recording at least twice the normal amount of precipitation. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The United States 2024-2025 grapefruit crop is forecast at 319,000 tons, up 7 percent from the previous forecast but down 3 percent from last season's revised utilization. The California forecast, at 4.30 million boxes (172,000 tons), is up 16 percent from previous forecast and up 10 percent from last season's revised utilization. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 1.06 million tons, up 4 percent from the previous forecast but down 5 percent from the last season's revised utilization. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 26 million boxes (1.04 million tons) is up 4 percent from the previous forecast but down 4 percent from last season's revised total. Lemons: The 2024-2025 United States lemon crop is forecast at 1.15 million tons, up 4 percent from the previous forecast and up 10 percent from last season's revised utilization in comparable States. The California forecast, at 27.0 million boxes (1.08 million tons), is up 4 percent from the previous forecast and up 10 percent from the 2023-2024 season's revised total. Beginning in 2024-2025, estimates for lemons began in Florida. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September of last year, the number of bearing trees and number of fruit per tree is determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Revision policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 3.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.5 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for oranges of the differences between the April 1 forecast and the final estimate. Changes for oranges between the April 1 forecast and the final estimates during the past 20-years have averaged 143,000 tons, ranging from 0 ton to 502,000 tons. The April 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times, above 12 times, and equal 1 time. The difference does not imply that the April 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of April 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :------------------------------------------ : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :------------------------------------------ :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : :Average :Smallest:Largest : final : final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- percent --- ----- thousands ----- number : Oranges ..................tons: 3.8 6.5 143 0 502 7 12 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Patrick Boyle, Chief, Crops Branch................................................... (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section............................................ (202) 720-2127 Irwin Anolik - Crop Progress and Condition, Flaxseed, Mustardseed............... (202) 720-7621 Joshua Bates - Hemp, Oats, Soybeans............................................. (202) 690-3234 Natasha Bruton - Barley, Cotton System Consumption and Stocks, Grain Crushings.. (202) 690-1042 David Colwell - Fats and Oils, Flour Milling Products........................... (202) 720-8800 Michelle Harder - Hay, Peanuts.................................................. (202) 690-8533 James Johanson - Rye, Wheat..................................................... (202) 720-8068 Greg Lemmons - Corn, Proso Millet, Rice......................................... (202) 720-9526 Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum................................. (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Canola, Rapeseed, Safflower, Sunflower......................... (202) 720-7369 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section................... (202) 720-2127 Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Carrots, Coffee, Cranberries, Garlic, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco............................................................... (202) 720-4288 Bret Holliman - Apricots, Chickpeas, Nectarines, Peaches, Snap Beans, Sweet Corn, Tomatoes................................................................. (202) 720-7235 Robert Little - Blueberries, Cabbage, Dry Edible Beans, Kale, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup, Pears, Raspberries, Spinach.................................. (202) 720-3250 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Asparagus, Celery, Grapefruit, Kiwifruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges, Pistachios............... (202) 720-5412 Chris Singh - Apples, Cucumbers, Hazelnuts, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes.......................... (202) 720-4285 Antonio Torres - Beets, Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Grapes, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons.............. (202) 720-2157 Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cauliflower, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Hops, Papayas, Pecans............................ (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov. Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and other agency's archived reports. The new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing reports will be sent from the new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via e-mail, you will have to go to the new website, create a new account and re-subscribe to the reports. If you need instructions to set up an account or subscribe, they are located at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/help. You should whitelist notifications@usda-esmis.library.cornell.edu in your email client to avoid the emails going into spam/junk folders. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@usda.gov. If you have specific questions you would like an expert to respond to, please visit our "Ask A Specialist" website at www.nass.usda.gov/Contact_Us/Ask_a_Specialist. In accordance with Federal civil rights law and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) civil rights regulations and policies, the USDA, its Agencies, offices, and employees, and institutions participating in or administering USDA programs are prohibited from discriminating based on race, color, national origin, religion, sex, disability, age, marital status, family/parental status, income derived from a public assistance program, political beliefs, or reprisal or retaliation for prior civil rights activity, in any program or activity conducted or funded by USDA (not all bases apply to all programs). Remedies and complaint filing deadlines vary by program or incident. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means of communication for program information (e.g., Braille, large print, audiotape, American Sign Language, etc.) should contact the responsible Agency or USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TTY) or contact USDA through the Federal Relay Service at (800) 877-8339. Additionally, program information may be made available in languages other than English. To file a program discrimination complaint, complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form, AD-3027, found online at How to File a Program Discrimination Complaint and at any USDA office or write a letter addressed to USDA and provide in the letter all of the information requested in the form. To request a copy of the complaint form, call (866) 632-9992. Submit your completed form or letter to USDA by: (1) mail: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C. 20250-9410; (2) fax: (202) 690- 7442; or (3) email: program.intake@usda.gov. USDA is an equal opportunity provider, employer, and lender.