Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released February 11, 2025, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Down 1 Percent from January Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2024-2025 season is 2.45 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 11 percent from the 2023-2024 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 11.5 million boxes (518,000 tons), is down 4 percent from the previous forecast and down 36 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 4.50 million boxes (203,000 tons), down 10 percent from the previous forecast and down 33 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 7.00 million boxes (315,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast and down 38 percent from last season's final utilization. This report was approved on February 11, 2025. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Seth Meyer Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Lance Honig Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2023-2024 and Forecasted February 1, 2025......................................................................................... 4 Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2023 and 2024......... 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2024 and 2025.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2024 and 2025.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2024 and 2025.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2024 and 2025................................ 11 January Percent of Normal Precipitation Map.............................................................. 12 January Departure from Normal Temperature Map............................................................ 12 January Weather Summary.................................................................................. 13 January Agricultural Summary............................................................................. 14 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Reliability of February 1 Crop Production Forecasts...................................................... 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2023-2024 and Forecasted February 1, 2025 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2023-2024 : 2024-2025 : 2023-2024 : 2024-2025 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 boxes ----- ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all 2/ .........: 47,500 47,400 1,900 1,896 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 38,200 39,000 1,528 1,560 Valencia ..................: 9,300 8,400 372 336 : Florida, all ...............: 17,960 11,500 808 518 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 6,760 4,500 304 203 Valencia ..................: 11,200 7,000 504 315 : Texas, all 2/ ..............: 1,180 900 50 39 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 690 600 29 26 Valencia ..................: 490 300 21 13 : United States, all .........: 66,640 59,800 2,758 2,453 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 45,650 44,100 1,861 1,789 Valencia ..................: 20,990 15,700 897 664 : Grapefruit : California 2/ ..............: 4,300 3,700 172 148 Florida, all ...............: 1,790 1,100 76 47 Texas 2/ ...................: 2,400 2,500 96 100 : United States ..............: 8,490 7,300 344 295 : Tangerines and mandarins 4/ : California 2/ ..............: 27,400 25,000 1,096 1,000 Florida ....................: 450 350 21 17 : United States ..............: 27,850 25,350 1,117 1,017 : Lemons 2/ : Arizona ....................: 950 900 38 36 California .................: 24,600 26,000 984 1,040 Florida ....................: (NA) 600 (NA) 27 : United States ..............: 25,550 27,500 1,022 1,103 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons in Arizona-80, California-80, Florida-90. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 4/ Includes tangelos and tangors. 5/ Estimates began with the 2024-2025 crop year. Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2023 and 2024 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Use and State : Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 acres -- ------ tons ----- --- 1,000 tons -- : For sugar : Florida ......................: 391.0 384.0 44.4 45.2 17,360 17,357 Louisiana 2/ .................: 481.0 495.0 29.9 31.2 14,382 15,444 Texas 3/ .....................: 16.5 (NA) 22.5 (NA) 371 (NA) : United States ................: 888.5 879.0 36.1 37.3 32,113 32,801 : For seed : Florida ......................: 16.6 15.7 49.8 53.3 827 837 Louisiana 2/ .................: 24.5 24.4 33.7 34.8 826 849 Texas 3/ .....................: - (NA) (X) (NA) - (NA) : United States ................: 41.1 40.1 40.2 42.0 1,653 1,686 : For sugar and seed : Florida ......................: 407.6 399.7 44.6 45.5 18,187 18,194 Louisiana 2/ .................: 505.5 519.4 30.1 31.4 15,208 16,293 Texas 3/ .....................: 16.5 (NA) 22.5 (NA) 371 (NA) : United States ................: 929.6 919.1 36.3 37.5 33,766 34,487 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from an earlier estimate. 3/ Estimates discontinued in 2024. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 : 2024 : 2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,373 1,875 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 90,594 82,896 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,100 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) 49,390 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 14,612 All other ............................: (NA) 34,778 Oats ...................................: 2,213 886 Proso millet ...........................: 481 427 Rice ...................................: 2,910 2,867 Rye ....................................: 2,206 402 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 6,300 5,605 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 306 Wheat, all .............................: 46,079 38,469 Winter ...............................: 33,390 34,115 26,103 Durum ................................: 2,064 2,036 Other spring .........................: 10,625 10,330 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,751.5 2,710.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 148 140 Mustard seed ...........................: 185.0 176.9 Peanuts ................................: 1,801.0 1,758.0 Rapeseed ...............................: 17.5 15.7 Safflower ..............................: 116.6 108.0 Soybeans for beans .....................: 87,050 86,050 Sunflower ..............................: 720.8 686.1 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 11,182.0 8,271.2 Upland ...............................: 10,975.0 8,070.5 American Pima ........................: 207.0 200.7 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,104.3 1,085.5 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 919.1 Tobacco ................................: (NA) 167.5 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 502.0 492.4 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,533.0 1,503.6 Dry edible peas ........................: 976.0 939.9 Lentils ................................: 936.0 903.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 44.8 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 23.2 Potatoes ...............................: 930.0 925.4 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 10.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 : 2024 : 2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 76.7 143,836 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 179.3 14,866,744 Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.2 123,093 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.48 122,462 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.41 49,840 All other ........................tons: 2.09 72,622 Oats ............................bushels: 76.5 67,793 Proso millet ....................bushels: 32.9 14,061 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,748 222,133 Rye .............................bushels: 36.6 14,729 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 61.3 343,850 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 13.3 4,062 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 51.2 1,971,301 Winter ........................bushels: 51.7 1,348,930 Durum .........................bushels: 39.3 80,051 Other spring ..................bushels: 52.5 542,320 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,784 4,834,030 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 4,401.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 17.3 2,420 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 577 102,015 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,668 6,448,020 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,019 31,705 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,200 129,585 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 50.7 4,366,492 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,670 1,145,605 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 836 14,414.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 829 13,946.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,119 468.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 32.5 35,278 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 37.5 34,487 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 1,942 325,220 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,144 5,632 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 2,081 31,289 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,775 16,679 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,002 9,049 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,944 87,072.2 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 5,860 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 658,739 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 103 2,391 Potatoes ............................cwt: 454 420,242 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 132 1,357 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 : 2024 : 2025 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 960,330 758,790 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 36,662,490 33,547,180 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,468,610 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 19,987,640 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 5,913,330 All other ....................: (NA) 14,074,310 Oats ...........................: 895,580 358,560 Proso millet ...................: 194,660 172,800 Rice ...........................: 1,177,650 1,160,250 Rye ............................: 892,750 162,690 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,549,550 2,268,290 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 123,840 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,647,710 15,568,020 Winter .......................: 13,512,600 13,806,000 10,563,620 Durum ........................: 835,280 823,950 Other spring .................: 4,299,830 4,180,450 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 1,113,500 1,096,710 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 59,890 56,660 Mustard seed ...................: 74,870 71,590 Peanuts ........................: 728,850 711,450 Rapeseed .......................: 7,080 6,350 Safflower ......................: 47,190 43,710 Soybeans for beans .............: 35,228,260 34,823,570 Sunflower ......................: 291,700 277,660 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,525,240 3,347,270 Upland .......................: 4,441,470 3,266,050 American Pima ................: 83,770 81,220 Sugarbeets .....................: 446,900 439,290 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 371,950 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 67,770 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 203,150 199,270 Dry edible beans ...............: 620,390 608,490 Dry edible peas ................: 394,980 380,370 Lentils ........................: 378,790 365,440 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 18,130 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 9,390 Potatoes .......................: 376,360 374,500 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 4,170 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 : 2024 : 2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 4.13 3,131,660 Corn for grain .........................: 11.26 377,632,690 Corn for silage ........................: 45.24 111,668,090 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.56 111,095,660 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.65 45,214,090 All other ............................: 4.68 65,881,570 Oats ...................................: 2.74 984,010 Proso millet ...........................: 1.85 318,900 Rice ...................................: 8.68 10,075,780 Rye ....................................: 2.30 374,130 Sorghum for grain ......................: 3.85 8,734,190 Sorghum for silage .....................: 29.76 3,684,980 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.45 53,650,020 Winter ...............................: 3.48 36,711,860 Durum ................................: 2.64 2,178,630 Other spring .........................: 3.53 14,759,530 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2.00 2,192,680 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 3,992,520 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.08 61,470 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.65 46,270 Peanuts ................................: 4.11 2,924,770 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.26 14,380 Safflower ..............................: 1.34 58,780 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.41 118,836,440 Sunflower ..............................: 1.87 519,640 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.94 3,138,280 Upland ...............................: 0.93 3,036,380 American Pima ........................: 1.25 101,890 Sugarbeets .............................: 72.85 32,003,660 Sugarcane ..............................: 84.11 31,286,080 Tobacco ................................: 2.18 147,520 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.28 255,460 Dry edible beans .......................: 2.33 1,419,250 Dry edible peas ........................: 1.99 756,550 Lentils ................................: 1.12 410,460 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 2.18 39,500 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 29,300 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 298,800 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.12 1,080 Potatoes ...............................: 50.90 19,061,860 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.15 620 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2025-2026 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 344 295 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,022 1,103 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 2,758 2,453 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 1,117 1,017 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 11,110.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 36,000 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 355,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 222.0 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: Cranberries .........................barrel: 8,240,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 6,365,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 719,000 Pears .................................tons: 520,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,800,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 270,900 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 670,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2024-2025 and 2025-2026. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2024 and 2025 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2025 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2025-2026 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 312,070 267,620 Lemons ....................................: 927,140 1,000,620 Oranges ...................................: 2,502,020 2,225,320 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 1,013,330 922,610 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 5,039,410 Apricots ..................................: 32,660 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 322,050 Cherries, Tart ............................: 100,700 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: Cranberries ...............................: 373,760 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 5,774,230 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 652,270 Pears .....................................: 471,740 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,270,060 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 122,880 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 607,810 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2024-2025 and 2025-2026. January Weather Summary With a weak La Niña in place, episodic January cold outbreaks fueled a colder-than-normal month nearly nationwide. Cold weather was particularly pronounced in the central and eastern United States, with parts of the central and southern Plains, as well as an area extending from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast, noting monthly temperatures ranging from 5 to 10°F below normal. The chilly pattern was highlighted by a sharp cold outbreak that generally peaked from January 19-22. The Arctic blast, which trailed multiple winter-weather events-including a Deep South snowstorm- resulted in sub-0°F temperatures as far south as the northern panhandle of Texas and the Ohio Valley. On January 22, widespread readings below 10°F were reported in the central Gulf Coast region, although freshly fallen snow from southeastern Texas to the southern Atlantic Coast-excluding Florida's peninsula-helped to insulate winter grains and cover crops, as well as Louisiana's new-growth sugarcane. Deep South Texas experienced one night with sub-freezing temperatures, while Florida's citrus belt escaped with scattered frost. Farther north and west, the Plains' winter wheat crop-already struggling in some areas due to drought-was broadly exposed to bitterly cold air without the benefit of a protective snow cover. By January 28, nearly one-quarter (24 percent) of the Nation's winter wheat production area was in an area experiencing drought, based on U.S. Drought Monitor-derived statistics. Not unexpectedly, some of the lowest-rated wheat, according to USDA/NASS, was situated in the coldest, driest areas, with 34 percent of Nebraska's wheat in very poor to poor condition on January 31, along with 28 percent of South Dakota's crop. Across the Plains and neighboring states, topsoil moisture at the end of January was rated 88 percent very short to short in New Mexico, along with 83 percent in South Dakota, 81 percent in Wyoming, 78 percent in Nebraska, 62 percent in Montana, 54 percent in Texas, and 51 percent in Colorado. Although wintry weather bypassed some areas, there were plenty of January storm systems. East of the Rockies, the three most notable storms were spaced roughly a week apart, starting on January 5-6 and ending on January 21-22. The initial system dumped heavy snow from the east-central Plains to the middle Atlantic States, while subsequent storms affected areas farther south. As the final major storm traversed the Deep South, historically heavy snow developed on January 21 from southeastern Texas to northern Florida and southern Georgia. In fact, January 21 became the snowiest day on record in multiple cities and towns from Beaumont-Port Arthur, Texas, to Pensacola, Florida. With storm-total snowfall of 8.9 inches, Pensacola (and several other communities in the panhandle) more than doubled Florida's former state record 24-hour snowfall, which had been 4.0 inches in Milton on March 6, 1954. However, all three major storms passed well south of the north-central United States, leaving parts of the northern Plains and much of the western Corn Belt in a "snow drought." Through January, season-to-date snowfall amounts in locations such as Des Moines, Iowa (4.7 inches), and Lincoln, Nebraska (1.0 inch), were considerably below the totals in Gulf Coast cities such as New Orleans, Louisiana (8.0 inches), and Mobile, Alabama (7.5 inches). Farther west, the middle of winter was disappointingly quiet in most areas from the Pacific Coast to the Rockies. In fact, Southwestern snowpack was seriously deficient, with most river basins in Arizona and New Mexico reporting a snow-water equivalency less than one-half of the end-of-January average. Much of the Northwest also experienced a drier-than-normal January, although earlier storminess had helped to establish high-elevation snowpack. The dividing line between respectable and abysmal snowpack ran through the Sierra Nevada, which on average added less than an inch of snow-water equivalency during January. By month's end, the average water equivalency of the Sierra Nevada snowpack stood at less than 11 inches, only two-thirds of the late-January average, with values ranging from less than 7 inches in the south to about 15 inches in the north. Meanwhile in southern California, a delayed-onset wet season, following abundant vegetative growth during the wetter-than-normal winters of 2022-23 and 2023-24, set the stage for a horrific rash of wildfires, starting on January 7. Collectively, southern California's wildfires scorched more than 57,000 acres of terrain; destroyed more than 16,000 homes, businesses, and other buildings; and resulted in at least 29 fatalities. In terms of incinerated structures, the 14,021-acre Eaton Fire and the 23,707-acre Palisades Fire became the second- and third-most destructive blazes, respectively, in state history, as well as California's fifth- and ninth-deadliest wildfires. During the 4-week period ending January 28, drought coverage across the Lower 48 States increased slightly, from 38.06 to 39.64 percent, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Modest drought improvement was noted during January in several areas, including parts of the South and lower Midwest, while worsening drought was particularly apparent from southern California into the Southwest. By January 28, extreme drought (D3) covered 21 percent of Arizona. Extreme drought coverage on that date was even greater in Wyoming, with more than 22 percent of the state experiencing D3. January Agricultural Summary Most of the Nation was cooler than normal during the month of January. Parts of the Great Plains, Ohio Valley, Rockies, South, and Southwest recorded temperatures 6°F or more below normal. In contrast, parts of California, New England, and the Northern Plains were warmer than normal. While much of the Nation was drier than normal for the month of January, parts of the Central Plains, Rockies, and South recorded at least twice the normal amount of precipitation. Parts of northern Florida, the lower Mississippi Valley, and Pacific Northwest Coast recorded 6 inches or more of rain for the month. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The United States 2024-2025 grapefruit crop is forecast at 295,000 tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 14 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida forecast, at 1.10 million boxes (47,000 tons), is down 8 percent from previous forecast and down 39 percent from the last season. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts were carried forward from the previous forecast. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 1.02 million tons, up less than 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 9 percent from the last season's final utilization. The Florida tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 350,000 boxes (17,000 tons) is up 17 percent from last forecast but down 22 percent from last year. The California tangerine and mandarin production forecast was carried forward from the previous forecast. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 34.5 million tons, down 1 percent from last month but up 3 percent from last season in comparable States. Producers intend to harvest 919,100 acres for sugar and seed during the 2024 crop year, down 1 percent from last month but up 1 percent from last season, in comparable States. Yields for sugar and seed are expected to average 37.5 tons per acre, down 0.1 ton from last month but up 0.9 ton from last season, in comparable States. Beginning in 2024, estimates for sugarcane were discontinued in Texas. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September last year, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree was determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower survey on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast. Revision policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of- season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 5.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 5.9 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 10.1 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the February 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using oranges again as an example, changes between the February 1 forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 280,000 tons, ranging from 6,000 tons to 843,000 tons. The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times. This does not imply that the February 1 orange forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of February 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------- : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :---------------------------------------- :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- percent --- ----- millions ----- number : Oranges 1/ ...............tons: 5.9 10.1 280 6 843 6 14 Sugarcane ...............tons: 3.0 5.1 1 (Z) 3 5 15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (Z) Less than half of the unit shown. 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Patrick Boyle, Chief, Crops Branch..................................................................... (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section (202) 720-2127 Irwin Anolik - Crop Progress and Condition, Flaxseed, Mustardseed (202) 720-7621 Joshua Bates - Hemp, Oats, Soybeans (202) 690-3234 Natasha Bruton - Barley, Cotton System Consumption and Stocks, Grain Crushings (202) 690-1042 David Colwell - Fats and Oils, Flour Milling Products (202) 720-8800 Michelle Harder - Hay, Peanuts (202) 690-8533 James Johanson - Rye, Wheat (202) 720-8068 Greg Lemmons - Corn, Proso Millet, Rice (202) 720-9526 Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Canola, Rapeseed, Safflower, Sunflower........................................... (202) 720-7369 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section..................................... (202) 720-2127 Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Carrots, Coffee, Cranberries, Garlic, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco................................................................................. (202) 720-4288 Bret Holliman - Apricots, Chickpeas, Nectarines, Peaches, Snap Beans, Sweet Corn, Tomatoes................................................................................... (202) 720-7235 Robert Little - Blueberries, Cabbage, Dry Edible Beans, Kale, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup, Pears, Raspberries, Spinach.................................................... (202) 720-3250 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Asparagus, Celery, Grapefruit, Kiwifruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges, Pistachios................................. (202) 720-5412 Chris Singh - Apples, Cucumbers, Hazelnuts, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes............................................ (202) 720-4285 Antonio Torres - Beets, Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Grapes, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons................................ (202) 720-2157 Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cauliflower, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Hops, Papayas, Pecans.............................................. (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov. Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and other agency's archived reports. The new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing reports will be sent from the new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. 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