Mt An 2-1 (6-09) Cattle on Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released June 19, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Jason Hardegree at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 4 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.4 million head on June 1, 2009. The inventory was 4 percent below June 1, 2008. Placements in feedlots during May totaled 1.64 million, 14 percent below 2008. Net placements were 1.54 million head. This is the second lowest placements for the month of May since the series began in 1996. During May, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 395,000, 600-699 pounds were 305,000, 700-799 pounds were 433,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 505,000. Marketings of fed cattle during May totaled 1.95 million, 9 percent below 2008. This is the lowest fed cattle marketings for the month of May since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 101,000 during May, 26 percent above 2008. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, June 1, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2009 as % Item :---------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : of 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head ---- Percent : On Feed May 1 : 11,135 10,822 97 Placed on Feed During May : 1,900 1,638 86 Fed Cattle Marketed During May : 2,140 1,952 91 Other Disappearance During May : 80 101 126 On Feed Jun 1 : 10,815 10,407 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, May 1, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2009 as % Item :---------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : of 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head ---- Percent : On Feed Apr 1 : 11,684 11,162 96 Placed on Feed During Apr : 1,536 1,600 104 Fed Cattle Marketed During Apr : 2,010 1,871 93 Other Disappearance During Apr : 75 69 92 On Feed May 1 : 11,135 10,822 97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Jun 1, 2009 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Jun 1, 2008 : May 1, 2009 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2008 : May -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 365 311 301 82 97 CA : 525 450 470 90 104 CO : 920 1,010 980 107 97 ID : 215 210 205 95 98 IA : 520 540 530 102 98 KS : 2,190 2,180 2,080 95 95 NE : 2,250 2,270 2,110 94 93 NM : 150 120 105 70 88 OK : 305 315 310 102 98 SD : 205 230 220 107 96 TX : 2,690 2,680 2,610 97 97 WA : 145 161 156 108 97 : Oth Sts: 335 345 330 99 96 : US : 10,815 10,822 10,407 96 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During May 2009 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : May 2008 : Apr 2009 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2008 : Apr -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 34 21 26 76 124 CA : 80 68 74 93 109 CO : 150 150 140 93 93 ID : 28 30 35 125 117 IA : 58 79 60 103 76 KS : 410 330 345 84 105 NE : 370 350 310 84 89 NM : 24 11 16 67 145 OK : 76 52 67 88 129 SD : 34 39 40 118 103 TX : 560 395 455 81 115 WA : 29 26 31 107 119 : Oth Sts: 47 49 39 83 80 : US : 1,900 1,600 1,638 86 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During May :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 25 25 30 25 45 45 50 45 150 140 KS : 50 65 70 70 130 110 160 100 410 345 NE : 40 30 70 60 85 80 175 140 370 310 TX : 105 170 125 100 210 110 120 75 560 455 : Oth Sts : 120 105 55 50 95 88 140 145 410 388 : US : 340 395 350 305 565 433 645 505 1,900 1,638 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During April :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 15 20 25 30 35 40 40 60 115 150 KS : 45 55 70 70 115 90 130 115 360 330 NE : 50 55 60 65 90 90 140 140 340 350 TX : 90 125 80 90 110 95 80 85 360 395 : Oth Sts : 115 100 43 60 78 90 125 125 361 375 : US : 315 355 278 315 428 405 515 525 1,536 1,600 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During May 2009 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : May 2008 : Apr 2009 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2008 : Apr -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 38 38 35 92 92 CA : 71 61 52 73 85 CO : 170 165 145 85 88 ID : 36 29 39 108 134 IA : 65 68 68 105 100 KS : 490 410 425 87 104 NE : 480 395 450 94 114 NM : 23 25 28 122 112 OK : 75 66 71 95 108 SD : 46 33 44 96 133 TX : 550 510 510 93 100 WA : 38 24 35 92 146 : Oth Sts: 58 47 50 86 106 : US : 2,140 1,871 1,952 91 104 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During May 2009 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : May 2008 : Apr 2009 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2008 : Apr -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 1 2 1 100 50 CA : 4 2 2 50 100 CO : 10 15 25 250 167 ID : 2 1 1 50 100 IA : 3 1 2 67 200 KS : 20 20 20 100 100 NE : 20 5 20 100 400 NM : 1 3 3 300 100 OK : 1 1 1 100 100 SD : 3 1 6 200 600 TX : 10 15 15 150 100 WA : 1 1 1 100 100 : Oth Sts: 4 2 4 100 200 : US : 80 69 101 126 146 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is less than 0.1 percent (0.04). This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.4 million head by more than 0.04 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. The following table also shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 2,000 head, ranging from 0 to 18,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the final estimate 1 time and has been below the final estimate 5 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Months Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.0 0.1 10.4 2 0 18 1 5 : Placements : 0.2 0.3 4.9 2 0 10 2 6 : Marketings : 0.2 0.3 5.9 1 0 10 4 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch..............................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section..............................(202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products................................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices.........................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed...................(202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter....................(515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats...........................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows................(202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs................................(202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge. For free access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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