Mt An 2-1 (1-06) Cattle On Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 20, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Mike Miller at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 4 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.8 million head on January 1, 2006. The inventory was 4 percent above January 1, 2005 and 5 percent above January 1, 2004. The inventory included 7.57 million steers and steer calves, up 6 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 64 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.15 million head, up 2 percent from January 1, 2005. Placements in feedlots during December totaled 1.88 million, 3 percent above 2004 and 8 percent above 2003. This is the highest placements for the month of December since the series began in 1996. Net placements were 1.79 million. During December, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 575,000, 600-699 pounds were 554,000, 700-799 pounds were 430,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 325,000. Marketings of fed cattle during December totaled 1.72 million, 3 percent below 2004 and 1 percent below 2003. Other disappearance totaled 91,000 during December, 1 percent below 2004 but 1 percent above 2003. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, January 1, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2006 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Dec 1 1/2/ : 11,335 11,334 11,726 103 103 Placed on Feed During Dec2/ : 1,748 1,834 1,884 108 103 Fed Cattle Marketed During Dec2/ : 1,740 1,777 1,715 99 97 Other Disappearance During Dec 2/3/: 90 92 91 101 99 On Feed Jan 1 1/ : 11,253 11,299 11,804 105 104 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ December preceding year. 3/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, December 1, 2003-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2005 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2005 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Nov 1 1/ : 11,043 11,334 11,473 104 101 Placed on Feed During Nov : 1,926 1,743 2,045 106 117 Fed Cattle Marketed During Nov : 1,537 1,635 1,701 111 104 Other Disappearance During Nov 2/ : 97 108 91 94 84 On Feed Dec 1 1/ : 11,335 11,334 11,726 103 103 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed by Class, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, January 1, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2006 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ----- Percent : Class on Feed Jan 1 : Steers and Steer Calves : 6,845 7,175 7,570 111 106 Heifers and Heifer Calves : 4,330 4,046 4,147 96 102 Cows and Bulls : 78 78 87 112 112 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Jan 1, 2006 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Jan 1, 2005 : Dec 1, 2005 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Dec -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 331 328 334 101 102 CA : 535 550 550 103 100 CO : 1,080 1,070 1,080 100 101 ID : 295 280 275 93 98 IA : 450 500 510 113 102 KS : 2,410 2,470 2,500 104 101 NE : 2,300 2,400 2,430 106 101 NM : 126 137 143 113 104 OK : 350 365 370 106 101 SD : 192 190 205 107 108 TX : 2,700 2,940 2,920 108 99 WA : 190 161 152 80 94 : Oth Sts: 340 335 335 99 100 : US : 11,299 11,726 11,804 104 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2004-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Dec 2005 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Dec 2004 : Nov 2005 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2004 : Nov -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 33 35 35 106 100 CA : 72 66 69 96 105 CO : 135 165 155 115 94 ID : 55 49 48 87 98 IA : 71 108 65 92 60 KS : 490 465 495 101 106 NE : 390 440 350 90 80 NM : 14 18 20 143 111 OK : 53 68 64 121 94 SD : 42 63 46 110 73 TX : 405 495 465 115 94 WA : 39 27 26 67 96 : Oth Sts: 35 46 46 131 100 : US : 1,834 2,045 1,884 103 92 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2004-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During December :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 25 35 40 45 45 45 25 30 135 155 KS : 100 120 175 150 135 135 80 90 490 495 NE : 60 60 117 100 114 100 99 90 390 350 TX : 130 200 135 165 110 70 30 30 405 465 : Oth Sts : 150 160 91 94 85 80 88 85 414 419 : US : 465 575 558 554 489 430 322 325 1,834 1,884 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During November :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 60 45 55 60 35 35 25 25 175 165 KS : 115 155 125 145 90 100 60 65 390 465 NE : 115 120 157 145 66 85 72 90 410 440 TX : 115 160 105 170 70 120 30 45 320 495 : Oth Sts : 185 180 115 130 65 80 83 90 448 480 : US : 590 660 557 650 326 420 270 315 1,743 2,045 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2004-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Dec 2005 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Dec 2004 : Nov 2005 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2004 : Nov -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 30 29 27 90 93 CA : 62 53 60 97 113 CO : 145 115 140 97 122 ID : 62 57 50 81 88 IA : 55 80 53 96 66 KS : 450 375 435 97 116 NE : 380 305 305 80 100 NM : 15 20 13 87 65 OK : 52 62 57 110 92 SD : 34 33 28 82 85 TX : 420 510 470 112 92 WA : 32 28 34 106 121 : Oth Sts: 40 34 43 108 126 : US : 1,777 1,701 1,715 97 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Dec 2005 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Dec 2004 : Nov 2005 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2004 : Nov -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 1 1 2 200 200 CA : 5 8 9 180 113 CO : 10 10 5 50 50 ID : 3 2 3 100 150 IA : 1 3 2 200 67 KS : 20 30 30 150 100 NE : 10 15 15 150 100 NM : 2 2 1 50 50 OK : 6 1 2 33 200 SD : 2 1 3 150 300 TX : 25 15 15 60 100 WA : 2 1 1 50 100 : Oth Sts: 5 2 3 60 150 : US : 92 91 91 99 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed by Class, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Quarter, State, and United States, 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Steers & Steer Calves :Heifers & Heifer Calves: Cows and Bulls :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Jan 1, :Oct 1, :Jan 1, :Jan 1, :Oct 1, :Jan 1, :Jan 1, :Oct 1, :Jan 1, : 2005 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AZ : 323 316 332 7 2 2 1 0 0 CA : 495 505 506 40 30 44 0 0 0 CO : 665 585 690 410 310 380 5 5 10 ID : 184 166 167 111 101 106 0 3 2 IA : 305 280 340 144 129 169 1 1 1 KS : 1,310 1,330 1,390 1,080 900 1,090 20 20 20 NE : 1,390 1,140 1,460 890 790 950 20 10 20 NM : 80 76 78 46 60 65 0 0 0 OK : 225 235 265 125 100 105 0 0 0 SD : 98 64 105 74 56 73 20 10 27 TX : 1,750 1,880 1,900 947 947 1,017 3 3 3 WA : 110 90 92 79 62 59 1 1 1 : Oth Sts : 240 205 245 93 66 87 7 4 3 : US : 7,175 6,872 7,570 4,046 3,553 4,147 78 57 87 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 10 years is .3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.8 million head by more than .3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed .5 percent. The following table also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 18,000 head, ranging from 0 to 70,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been below the final estimate 5 times, and above the final estimate 1 time. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of U.S. January 1 Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.3 0.5 58.4 18 0 70 1 5 : Placements : 0.5 0.9 17.8 4 0 20 0 3 : Marketings : 0.2 0.3 5.6 1 0 10 1 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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