Mt An 2-1 (7-07) Cattle On Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 20, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Mike Miller at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.7 million head on July 1, 2007. The inventory was 1 percent below July 1, 2006 but 3 percent above July 1, 2005. The inventory included 6.74 million steers and steer calves, down 5 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 63 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 3.93 million head, up 6 percent from 2006. Placements in feedlots during June totaled 1.66 million, 15 percent below 2006 and 6 percent below 2005. Net placements were 1.61 million. During June, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 405,000, 600-699 pounds were 325,000, 700-799 pounds were 457,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 470,000. Marketings of fed cattle during June totaled 2.14 million, 3 percent below 2006 but up 3 percent from 2005. Other disappearance totaled 52,000 during June, down 17 percent from 2006 and 2005. U.S. All Cattle on Feed Down 2 Percent Cattle on feed July 1, 2007, from all feedlots in the United States, totaled 12.3 million, down 2 percent from the 12.5 million on July 1, 2006 but up 3 percent from July 1, 2005. Cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 or more head accounted for 87 percent of the total cattle on feed on July 1, 2007, unchanged from July 1, 2006. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, July 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Jun 1 1/ : 10,771 11,187 11,272 105 101 Placed on Feed During Jun : 1,769 1,946 1,657 94 85 Fed Cattle Marketed During Jun : 2,083 2,198 2,140 103 97 Other Disappearance During Jun 2/ : 63 63 52 83 83 On Feed Jul 1 1/ : 10,394 10,872 10,737 103 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, June 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed May 1 1/ : 10,641 11,559 11,297 106 98 Placed on Feed During May : 2,223 1,903 2,159 97 113 Fed Cattle Marketed During May : 1,997 2,160 2,085 104 97 Other Disappearance During May 2/ : 96 115 99 103 86 On Feed Jun 1 1/ : 10,771 11,187 11,272 105 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed by Class, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, July 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ----- Percent : Class on Feed Jul 1 : Steers and Steer Calves : 6,802 7,092 6,742 99 95 Heifers and Heifer Calves : 3,527 3,710 3,928 111 106 Cows and Bulls : 65 70 67 103 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Jul 1, 2007 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Jul 1, 2006 : Jun 1, 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Jun -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 344 340 343 100 101 CA : 530 555 545 103 98 CO : 980 1,020 940 96 92 ID : 230 230 220 96 96 IA : 460 520 510 111 98 KS : 2,280 2,290 2,140 94 93 NE : 1,990 2,290 2,050 103 90 NM : 140 128 132 94 103 OK : 340 340 325 96 96 SD : 180 215 197 109 92 TX : 2,980 2,870 2,870 96 100 WA : 148 149 150 101 101 : Oth Sts: 270 325 315 117 97 : US : 10,872 11,272 10,737 99 95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Jun 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Jun 2006 : May 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : May -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 34 36 39 115 108 CA : 73 73 53 73 73 CO : 170 175 120 71 69 ID : 58 43 37 64 86 IA : 59 54 52 88 96 KS : 445 465 375 84 81 NE : 370 390 330 89 85 NM : 33 34 22 67 65 OK : 63 71 52 83 73 SD : 29 34 24 83 71 TX : 530 710 485 92 68 WA : 39 29 31 79 107 : Oth Sts: 43 45 37 86 82 : US : 1,946 2,159 1,657 85 77 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During June :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 50 15 35 20 55 35 30 50 170 120 KS : 115 80 105 70 105 125 120 100 445 375 NE : 80 75 60 55 90 70 140 130 370 330 TX : 190 110 170 135 115 160 55 80 530 485 : Oth Sts : 130 125 60 45 91 67 150 110 431 347 : US : 565 405 430 325 456 457 495 470 1,946 1,657 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During May :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 35 25 40 30 45 50 45 70 165 175 KS : 65 80 85 85 115 135 150 165 415 465 NE : 65 55 50 60 80 110 145 165 340 390 TX : 155 130 135 145 170 260 130 175 590 710 : Oth Sts : 120 130 60 54 88 90 125 145 393 419 : US : 440 420 370 374 498 645 595 720 1,903 2,159 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Jun 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Jun 2006 : May 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : May -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 30 32 35 117 109 CA : 74 65 60 81 92 CO : 210 155 190 90 123 ID : 55 42 46 84 110 IA : 66 63 61 92 97 KS : 550 500 515 94 103 NE : 490 500 560 114 112 NM : 27 23 17 63 74 OK : 67 65 66 99 102 SD : 41 45 39 95 87 TX : 500 510 475 95 93 WA : 31 33 30 97 91 : Oth Sts: 57 52 46 81 88 : US : 2,198 2,085 2,140 97 103 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Jun 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Jun 2006 : May 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : May -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 1 4 1 100 25 CA : 4 3 3 75 100 CO : 10 20 10 100 50 ID : 3 6 1 33 17 IA : 3 1 1 33 100 KS : 15 25 10 67 40 NE : 10 20 10 100 50 NM : 1 1 1 100 100 OK : 1 1 1 100 100 SD : 3 4 3 100 75 TX : 10 10 10 100 100 WA : 1 1 0 : Oth Sts: 1 3 1 100 33 : US : 63 99 52 83 53 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed by Class, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Quarter, State, and United States, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Steers & Steer Calves :Heifers & Heifer Calves: Cows and Bulls :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Jul 1, :Apr 1, :Jul 1, :Jul 1, :Apr 1, :Jul 1, :Jul 1, :Apr 1, :Jul 1, : 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AZ : 341 339 342 3 1 1 0 0 0 CA : 487 485 490 40 45 54 3 0 1 CO : 650 660 590 320 355 345 10 5 5 ID : 149 146 133 79 96 83 2 3 4 IA : 320 350 340 139 179 169 1 1 1 KS : 1,300 1,340 1,090 970 1,115 1,030 10 25 20 NE : 1,240 1,520 1,230 740 950 810 10 10 10 NM : 84 81 84 56 50 48 0 0 0 OK : 240 235 225 100 115 100 0 0 0 SD : 85 130 98 72 82 80 23 18 19 TX : 1,900 1,780 1,780 1,075 1,017 1,087 5 3 3 WA : 81 87 90 66 75 59 1 1 1 : Oth Sts : 215 280 250 50 62 62 5 3 3 : US : 7,092 7,433 6,742 3,710 4,142 3,928 70 69 67 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Total Number on Feed, United States, July 1, 2005-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : July 1, 2007 : : :----------------------------------------- State : Jul 1, 2005 : Jul 1, 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent --- : US : 12,000 12,500 12,300 103 98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 10 years is .1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.7 million head by more than .1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed .2 percent. The following table also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 7,000 head, ranging from 0 to 20,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been below the final estimate 4 times, and above the final estimate 2 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of U.S. July 1 Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.1 0.2 18.1 7 0 20 2 4 : Placements : 0.3 0.6 9.5 4 0 10 3 3 : Marketings : 0.4 0.7 15.4 6 0 20 2 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch....................(202) 720-3570 Shawn Clark, Head, Livestock Section.....................(202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs.........................(202) 720-3106 Shawn Clark - Dairy Products........................(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows.....(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats & Kids..........(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed................(202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter..................(515) 284-4340 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices............(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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