Mt An 2-1 (1-10) Cattle on Feed Washington, D.C. Released January 22, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Jason Hardegree at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 2 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.0 million head on January 1, 2010. The inventory was 2 percent below January 1, 2009. The inventory included 6.88 million steers and steer calves, down 3 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 62 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.07 million head, down 1 percent from 2009. Placements in feedlots during December totaled 1.55 million, 6 percent below 2008. Net placements were 1.47 million head. During December, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 430,000, 600-699 pounds were 420,000, 700-799 pounds were 401,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 295,000. Marketings of fed cattle during December totaled 1.74 million, 4 percent above 2008. Other disappearance totaled 72,000 during December, 5 percent below 2008. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, January 1, 2009-2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2009 : 2010 :Previous Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ---- Percent : On Feed Dec 1 : 11,346 *11,277 99 Placed on Feed During Dec : 1,647 1,546 94 Fed Cattle Marketed During Dec : 1,683 1,742 104 Other Disappearance During Dec : 76 72 95 On Feed Jan 1 : 11,234 11,009 98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, December 1, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2008 : 2009 :Previous Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ---- Percent : On Feed Nov 1 : 10,972 11,134 101 Placed on Feed During Nov : 2,016 *1,844 91 Fed Cattle Marketed During Nov : 1,575 *1,635 104 Other Disappearance During Nov : 67 66 99 On Feed Dec 1 : 11,346 *11,277 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed by Class, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, January 1, 2009-2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2009 : 2010 :Previous Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head --- Percent : Class on Feed Jan 1 : Steers and Steer Calves : 7,071 6,877 97 Heifers and Heifer Calves : 4,100 4,069 99 Cows and Bulls : 63 63 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2009-2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Jan 1, 2010 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Jan 1, 2009 : Dec 1, 2009 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :Previous Year :Previous Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- 1,000 Head ----------- ----- Percent ---- : AZ : 358 282 288 80 102 CA : 490 465 465 95 100 CO : 1,000 1,060 1,010 101 95 ID : 220 *210 215 98 102 IA : 500 560 570 114 102 KS : 2,270 2,330 2,250 99 97 NE : 2,370 2,410 2,360 100 98 NM : 164 D D D D OK : 335 375 365 109 97 SD : 220 235 235 107 100 TX : 2,790 2,760 2,680 96 97 WA : 157 172 166 106 97 : Oth Sts1/: 360 418 405 X 97 : US : 11,234 *11,277 11,009 98 98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. (X) Comparison to 2009 is not applicable. 1/ Includes unpublished New Mexico totals for Dec. 2009 and Jan. 2010. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Dec 2009 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Dec 2008 : Nov 2009 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :Previous Year :Previous Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ----- Percent ---- : AZ : 29 26 32 110 123 CA : 59 50 63 107 126 CO : 150 165 110 73 67 ID : 36 *44 41 114 93 IA : 66 108 85 129 79 KS : 380 355 375 99 106 NE : 345 400 320 93 80 NM : 16 D D D D OK : 49 57 50 102 88 SD : 38 67 38 100 57 TX : 405 455 350 86 77 WA : 28 47 29 104 62 : Oth Sts1/: 46 70 53 X 76 : US : 1,647 *1,844 1,546 94 84 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. (X) Comparison to 2008 is not applicable. 1/ Includes unpublished New Mexico totals for 2009. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During December :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 25 25 45 30 40 30 40 25 150 110 KS : 70 70 120 100 120 135 70 70 380 375 NE : 55 60 100 80 100 100 90 80 345 320 TX : 140 140 135 110 90 70 40 30 405 350 : Oth Sts : 135 135 90 100 57 66 85 90 367 391 : US : 425 430 490 420 407 401 325 295 1,647 1,546 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During November :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 50 40 55 50 40 35 40 40 185 165 KS : 85 70 125 105 120 110 75 70 405 355 NE : 110 80 160 140 80 80 90 100 440 400 TX : 145 160 180 140 130 100 55 55 510 455 : Oth Sts : 175 160 110 130 81 *69 110 110 476 *469 : US : 565 510 630 565 451 *394 370 375 2,016 *1,844 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Dec 2009 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Dec 2008 : Nov 2009 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :Previous Year :Previous Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ----- Percent ---- : AZ : 29 22 25 86 114 CA : 60 53 59 98 111 CO : 155 140 155 100 111 ID : 39 *43 35 90 81 IA : 64 85 73 114 86 KS : 405 340 445 110 131 NE : 340 380 350 103 92 NM : 18 D D D D OK : 46 53 58 126 109 SD : 37 35 36 97 103 TX : 405 405 410 101 101 WA : 38 29 34 89 117 : Oth Sts1/: 47 50 62 X 124 : US : 1,683 *1,635 1,742 104 107 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. (X) Comparison to 2008 is not applicable. 1/ Includes unpublished New Mexico totals for 2009. Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Dec 2009 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Dec 2008 : Nov 2009 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :Previous Year :Previous Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------- 1,000 Head --------- ----- Percent ---- : AZ : 1 1 1 100 100 CA : 4 2 4 100 200 CO : 5 5 5 100 100 ID : 2 1 1 50 100 IA : 2 3 2 100 67 KS : 15 15 10 67 67 NE : 15 10 20 133 200 NM : 2 D D D D OK : 3 4 2 67 50 SD : 1 2 2 200 100 TX : 20 20 20 100 100 WA : 2 1 1 50 100 : Oth Sts1/: 4 2 4 X 200 : US : 76 66 72 95 109 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. (X) Comparison to 2008 is not applicable. 1/ Includes unpublished New Mexico totals for 2009. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed by Class, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Quarter, State, and United States, 2009-2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Steers & Steer Calves :Heifers & Heifer Calves: Cows and Bulls :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Jan 1, :Oct 1, :Jan 1, :Jan 1, :Oct 1, :Jan 1, :Jan 1, :Oct 1, :Jan 1, : 2009 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2009 : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AZ : 357 272 285 1 1 3 0 2 0 CA : 440 410 410 50 55 53 0 0 2 CO : 610 650 650 385 305 355 5 5 5 ID : 118 113 120 97 91 90 5 1 5 IA : 345 365 380 155 155 190 0 0 0 KS : 1,210 1,210 1,250 1,045 1,005 990 15 5 10 NE : 1,460 1,240 1,440 900 915 910 10 15 10 NM : 89 D D 75 D D 0 D D OK : 215 215 220 120 140 145 0 0 0 SD : 107 100 115 92 81 92 21 14 28 TX : 1,770 1,520 1,650 1,018 1,079 1,029 2 1 1 WA : 95 87 94 61 59 71 1 1 1 : Oth Sts1/: 255 234 263 101 126 141 4 2 1 : US : 7,071 6,416 6,877 4,100 4,012 4,069 63 46 63 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. 1/ Includes unpublished New Mexico totals for Oct. 2009 and Jan. 2010. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is less than 0.1 percent (0.04). This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.0 million head by more than 0.04 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. The following table also shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 1,000 head, ranging from 0 to 10,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the final estimate 4 times and has been below the final estimate 3 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Months Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.0 0.1 11.0 1 0 10 4 3 : Placements : 0.1 0.2 3.1 1 0 6 2 5 : Marketings : 0.2 0.3 5.2 2 0 7 3 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch...............................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section...............................(202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products.................................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices..........................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed....................(202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter.....................(515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats............................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows.................(202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs.................................(202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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