Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released December 18, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Down Slightly Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.8 million head on December 1, 2015. The inventory was slightly below December 1, 2014. Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.60 million head, 11 percent below 2014. Placements are the lowest for November since the series began in 1996. Net placements were 1.53 million head. During November, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 470,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 391,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 310,000 head, and 800 pounds and greater were 430,000 head. Marketings of fed cattle during November totaled 1.53 million head, 4 percent above 2014. Other disappearance totaled 74,000 head during November, unchanged from 2014. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: December 1, 2014 and 2015 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2014 : 2015 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed November 1 .....................: 10,571 10,799 102 Placed on feed during November .........: 1,794 1,601 89 Fed cattle marketed during November ....: 1,475 1,532 104 Other disappearance during November ....: 74 74 100 On feed December 1 .....................: 10,816 10,794 100 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: November 1, 2014 and 2015 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2014 : 2015 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed October 1 ......................: 9,985 10,218 102 Placed on feed during October ..........: 2,368 2,286 97 Fed cattle marketed during October .....: 1,685 1,630 97 Other disappearance during October .....: 97 75 77 On feed November 1 .....................: 10,571 10,799 102 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : December 1, 2015 : : :-------------------------------------------- State :December 1, 2014 :November 1, 2015 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- 1,000 head -------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 252 243 247 98 102 California .......: 435 455 455 105 100 Colorado .........: 910 880 890 98 101 Idaho ............: 220 230 235 107 102 Iowa .............: 620 640 630 102 98 Kansas ...........: 2,100 2,150 2,140 102 100 Minnesota ........: 134 151 152 113 101 Nebraska .........: 2,530 2,450 2,490 98 102 Oklahoma .........: 260 270 275 106 102 South Dakota .....: 235 240 245 104 102 Texas ............: 2,560 2,570 2,510 98 98 Washington .......: 225 205 205 91 100 : Other States .....: 335 315 320 96 102 : United States ....: 10,816 10,799 10,794 100 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During November 2015 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :November 2014 : October 2015 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 26 23 26 100 113 California .......: 62 38 50 81 132 Colorado .........: 155 195 140 90 72 Idaho ............: 43 58 42 98 72 Iowa .............: 127 156 101 80 65 Kansas ...........: 320 445 305 95 69 Minnesota ........: 15 30 13 87 43 Nebraska .........: 475 645 440 93 68 Oklahoma .........: 45 61 45 100 74 South Dakota .....: 53 75 45 85 60 Texas ............: 385 460 315 82 68 Washington .......: 49 50 43 88 86 : Other States .....: 39 50 36 92 72 : United States ....: 1,794 2,286 1,601 89 70 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During November :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 45 35 40 35 30 30 40 40 155 140 Kansas ...........: 65 55 75 70 95 85 85 95 320 305 Nebraska .........: 120 115 115 110 85 60 155 155 475 440 Texas ............: 160 110 95 80 80 75 50 50 385 315 : Other States .....: 165 155 110 96 79 60 105 90 459 401 : United States ....: 555 470 435 391 369 310 435 430 1,794 1,601 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During October :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 55 55 45 45 45 30 65 65 210 195 Kansas ...........: 85 80 100 100 115 115 120 150 420 445 Nebraska .........: 170 170 165 155 95 80 230 240 660 645 Texas ............: 180 145 130 110 130 130 80 75 520 460 : Other States .....: 205 195 130 120 78 76 145 150 558 541 : United States ....: 695 645 570 530 463 431 640 680 2,368 2,286 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During November 2015 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :November 2014 : October 2015 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 19 19 21 111 111 California .......: 43 38 45 105 118 Colorado .........: 120 140 125 104 89 Idaho ............: 32 47 36 113 77 Iowa .............: 95 113 107 113 95 Kansas ...........: 285 300 295 104 98 Minnesota ........: 11 16 11 100 69 Nebraska .........: 370 445 385 104 87 Oklahoma .........: 43 45 39 91 87 South Dakota .....: 34 39 38 112 97 Texas ............: 360 360 360 100 100 Washington .......: 37 39 42 114 108 : Other States .....: 26 29 28 108 97 : United States ....: 1,475 1,630 1,532 104 94 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During November 2015 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :November 2014 : October 2015 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 5 1 1 20 100 California .......: 4 5 5 125 100 Colorado .........: 5 5 5 100 100 Idaho ............: 1 1 1 100 100 Iowa .............: 2 3 4 200 133 Kansas ...........: 15 15 20 133 133 Minnesota ........: 1 1 1 100 100 Nebraska .........: 15 20 15 100 75 Oklahoma .........: 2 1 1 50 100 South Dakota .....: 4 1 2 50 200 Texas ............: 15 20 15 100 75 Washington .......: 2 1 1 50 100 : Other States .....: 3 1 3 100 300 : United States ....: 74 75 74 100 99 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are steers and heifers being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are steers and heifers put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are steers and heifers shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.8 million head by more than 0.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.9 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 43,000 head, ranging from 0 to 97,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 13 times and has been below the latest estimate 5 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : Number on feed ...............: 0.5 0.9 43 0 97 5 13 : Placements ...................: 0.7 1.2 8 0 29 12 6 : Marketings ...................: 0.3 0.4 1 0 21 0 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 David Colwell - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-8784 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Michael Klamm - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ....... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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