Mt An 2-1 (6-08) Cattle on Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released June 20, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Jason Hardegree at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 4 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.8 million head on June 1, 2008. The inventory was 4 percent below June 1, 2007 and 3 percent below June 1, 2006. Placements in feedlots during May totaled 1.90 million, 12 percent below 2007 and slightly below 2006. Net placements were 1.82 million head. During May, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 340,000, 600-699 pounds were 350,000, 700-799 pounds were 564,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 645,000. Marketings of fed cattle during May totaled 2.14 million, 3 percent above 2007 but 1 percent below 2006. Other disappearance totaled 80,000 during May, 19 percent below 2007 and 30 percent below 2006. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, June 1, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2008 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed May 1 1/ : 11,559 11,297 11,135 96 99 Placed on Feed During May : 1,903 2,159 1,899 100 88 Fed Cattle Marketed During May : 2,160 2,085 2,140 99 103 Other Disappearance During May 2/ : 115 99 80 70 81 On Feed Jun 1 : 11,187 11,272 10,814 97 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, May 1, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2008 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Apr 1 1/ : 11,812 11,644 11,684 99 100 Placed on Feed During Apr : 1,619 1,568 1,536 95 98 Fed Cattle Marketed During Apr : 1,785 1,816 2,010 113 111 Other Disappearance During Apr 2/ : 87 99 75 86 76 On Feed May 1 1/ : 11,559 11,297 11,135 96 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Jun 1, 2008 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Jun 1, 2007 : May 1, 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : May -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 340 370 365 107 99 CA : 555 520 525 95 101 CO : 1,020 950 920 90 97 ID : 230 225 215 93 96 IA : 520 530 520 100 98 KS : 2,290 2,290 2,190 96 96 NE : 2,290 2,380 2,250 98 95 NM : 128 150 149 116 99 OK : 340 305 305 90 100 SD : 215 220 205 95 93 TX : 2,870 2,690 2,690 94 100 WA : 149 155 145 97 94 : Oth Sts: 325 350 335 103 96 : US : 11,272 11,135 10,814 96 97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During May 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : May 2007 : Apr 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Apr -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 36 34 34 94 100 CA : 73 64 80 110 125 CO : 175 115 150 86 130 ID : 43 28 28 65 100 IA : 54 59 58 107 98 KS : 465 360 410 88 114 NE : 390 340 370 95 109 NM : 34 9 23 68 256 OK : 71 40 76 107 190 SD : 34 33 34 100 103 TX : 710 360 560 79 156 WA : 29 33 29 100 88 : Oth Sts: 45 61 47 104 77 : US : 2,159 1,536 1,899 88 124 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During May :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 25 25 30 30 50 45 70 50 175 150 KS : 80 50 85 70 135 130 165 160 465 410 NE : 55 40 60 70 110 85 165 175 390 370 TX : 130 105 145 125 260 210 175 120 710 560 : Oth Sts : 130 120 54 55 90 94 145 140 419 409 : US : 420 340 374 350 645 564 720 645 2,159 1,899 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During April :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 30 15 30 25 40 35 50 40 150 115 KS : 60 45 65 70 110 115 120 130 355 360 NE : 50 50 40 60 80 90 120 140 290 340 TX : 105 90 75 80 110 110 90 80 380 360 : Oth Sts : 130 115 53 43 90 78 120 125 393 361 : US : 375 315 263 278 430 428 500 515 1,568 1,536 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During May 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : May 2007 : Apr 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Apr -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 32 37 38 119 103 CA : 65 70 71 109 101 CO : 155 165 170 110 103 ID : 42 32 36 86 113 IA : 63 77 65 103 84 KS : 500 470 490 98 104 NE : 500 400 480 96 120 NM : 23 16 23 100 144 OK : 65 74 75 115 101 SD : 45 37 46 102 124 TX : 510 540 550 108 102 WA : 33 29 38 115 131 : Oth Sts: 52 63 58 112 92 : US : 2,085 2,010 2,140 103 106 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During May 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : May 2007 : Apr 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Apr -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 4 1 1 25 100 CA : 3 4 4 133 100 CO : 20 20 10 50 50 ID : 6 1 2 33 200 IA : 1 2 3 300 150 KS : 25 20 20 80 100 NE : 20 10 20 100 200 NM : 1 1 1 100 100 OK : 1 1 1 100 100 SD : 4 1 3 75 300 TX : 10 10 10 100 100 WA : 1 1 1 100 100 : Oth Sts: 3 3 4 133 133 : US : 99 75 80 81 107 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is less than 0.1 percent (0.04). This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.8 million head by more than 0.04 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. The following table also shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 2,000 head, ranging from 0 to 18,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has not been above the final estimate, but has been below the final estimate 3 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Months Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.0 0.1 10.8 2 0 18 0 3 : Placements : 0.2 0.4 7.6 3 0 10 9 3 : Marketings : 0.2 0.4 8.6 3 0 10 10 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch........................... (202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section........................... (202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products............................. (202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices...................... (202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed................ (202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter...................... (515) 284-4340 Scott Hollis - Sheep and Goats.......................... (202) 690-2424 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows............. (202) 720-3278 Nicholas Streff - Hogs and Pigs......................... (202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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