Mt An 2-1 (11-08) Cattle on Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 21, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Jason Hardegree at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 7 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.0 million head on November 1, 2008. The inventory was 7 percent below November 1, 2007 and 8 percent below November 1, 2006. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.44 million, 11 percent below 2007 but slightly above 2006. Net placements were 2.37 million head. During October, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 700,000, 600-699 pounds were 615,000, 700-799 pounds were 543,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 580,000. Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.81 million, 3 percent below 2007 but 3 percent above 2006. Other disappearance totaled 67,000 during October, 43 percent above 2007 but 17 percent below 2006. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, November 1, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2008 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Oct 1 1/ : 11,385 10,967 10,415 91 95 Placed on Feed During Oct : 2,430 2,725 2,438 100 89 Fed Cattle Marketed During Oct : 1,765 1,876 1,814 103 97 Other Disappearance During Oct 2/ : 81 47 67 83 143 On Feed Nov 1 : 11,969 11,769 10,972 92 93 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, October 1, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2008 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Sep 1 1/ : 10,986 10,302 9,997 91 97 Placed on Feed During Sep : 2,227 2,415 2,281 102 94 Fed Cattle Marketed During Sep : 1,760 1,696 1,812 103 107 Other Disappearance During Sep 2/ : 68 54 51 75 94 On Feed Oct 1 1/ : 11,385 10,967 10,415 91 95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Nov 1, 2008 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Nov 1, 2007 : Oct 1, 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Oct -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 360 360 362 101 101 CA : 545 505 500 92 99 CO : 1,030 870 960 93 110 ID : 235 195 210 89 108 IA : 550 475 485 88 102 KS : 2,420 2,160 2,230 92 103 NE : 2,400 2,110 2,310 96 109 NM : 143 173 172 120 99 OK : 335 315 320 96 102 SD : 205 175 200 98 114 TX : 3,000 2,590 2,710 90 105 WA : 166 157 163 98 104 : Oth Sts: 380 330 350 92 106 : US : 11,769 10,415 10,972 93 105 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Oct 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Oct 2007 : Sep 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Sep -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 39 24 31 79 129 CA : 67 55 54 81 98 CO : 260 255 245 94 96 ID : 69 57 55 80 96 IA : 120 81 104 87 128 KS : 530 485 450 85 93 NE : 620 550 590 95 107 NM : 31 27 17 55 63 OK : 74 60 75 101 125 SD : 71 56 70 99 125 TX : 700 510 630 90 124 WA : 42 44 38 90 86 : Oth Sts: 102 77 79 77 103 : US : 2,725 2,281 2,438 89 107 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During October :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 65 50 65 70 55 45 75 80 260 245 KS : 175 100 135 120 125 125 95 105 530 450 NE : 175 160 175 160 110 100 160 170 620 590 TX : 210 195 230 160 180 190 80 85 700 630 : Oth Sts : 240 195 140 105 85 83 150 140 615 523 : US : 865 700 745 615 555 543 560 580 2,725 2,438 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During September :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 35 20 40 30 60 45 120 160 255 255 KS : 140 80 140 100 130 155 130 150 540 485 NE : 100 80 80 70 120 120 240 280 540 550 TX : 190 145 170 150 165 130 65 85 590 510 : Oth Sts : 145 120 75 65 90 91 180 205 490 481 : US : 610 445 505 415 565 541 735 880 2,415 2,281 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Oct 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Oct 2007 : Sep 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Sep -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 27 25 28 104 112 CA : 60 53 57 95 108 CO : 165 150 150 91 100 ID : 43 41 39 91 95 IA : 79 75 93 118 124 KS : 410 400 360 88 90 NE : 350 390 375 107 96 NM : 19 20 17 89 85 OK : 63 49 68 108 139 SD : 45 44 43 96 98 TX : 530 490 495 93 101 WA : 29 24 31 107 129 : Oth Sts: 56 51 58 104 114 : US : 1,876 1,812 1,814 97 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Oct 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Oct 2007 : Sep 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Sep -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 2 1 1 50 100 CA : 2 2 2 100 100 CO : 5 5 5 100 100 ID : 1 1 1 100 100 IA : 1 1 1 100 100 KS : 10 15 20 200 133 NE : 10 10 15 150 150 NM : 2 1 1 50 100 OK : 1 1 2 200 200 SD : 1 2 2 200 100 TX : 10 10 15 150 150 WA : 1 1 1 100 100 : Oth Sts: 1 1 1 100 100 : US : 47 51 67 143 131 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is less than 0.1 percent (0.04). This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.0 million head by more than 0.04 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. The following table also shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 2,000 head, ranging from 0 to 18,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has not been above the final estimate, but has been below the final estimate 4 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Months Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.0 0.1 11.0 2 0 18 0 4 : Placements : 0.2 0.3 7.3 2 0 10 4 6 : Marketings : 0.2 0.3 5.4 2 0 10 5 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch.......................................... (202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section.......................................... (202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products............................................. (202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices...................................... (202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed................................ (202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter...................................... (515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats........................................ (202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows............................. (202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs............................................. 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