Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released January 27, 2017, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Up Slightly Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.6 million head on January 1, 2017. The inventory was slightly above January 1, 2016. The inventory included 7.02 million steers and steer calves, down 2 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 66 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 3.58 million head, up 5 percent from 2016. Placements in feedlots during December totaled 1.80 million head, 18 percent above 2015. Net placements were 1.74 million head. During December, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 435,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 450,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 450,000 head, and 800 pounds and greater were 460,000 head. Marketings of fed cattle during December totaled 1.79 million head, 7 percent above 2015. Other disappearance totaled 55,000 head during December, 29 percent below 2015. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: January 1, 2016 and 2017 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2016 : 2017 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed December 1 .....................: 10,800 10,652 99 Placed on feed during December .........: 1,527 1,795 118 Fed cattle marketed during December ....: 1,674 1,787 107 Other disappearance during December ....: 78 55 71 On feed January 1 ......................: 10,575 10,605 100 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: December 1, 2015 and 2016 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2015 : 2016 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed November 1 .....................: 10,809 10,665 99 Placed on feed during November .........: 1,602 1,843 115 Fed cattle marketed during November ....: 1,532 1,787 117 Other disappearance during November ....: 79 69 87 On feed December 1 .....................: 10,800 10,652 99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number on Feed by Class on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: January 1, 2016 and 2017 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :--------------------------------------------------------- : 2016 : 2017 :previous year : inventory -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head --- percent percent : Class on feed January 1 : Steers and steer calves ..............: 7,164 7,022 98 66 Heifers and heifer calves ............: 3,411 3,583 105 34 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2016 and 2017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : January 1, 2017 : : :-------------------------------------------- State : January 1, 2016 :December 1, 2016 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- 1,000 head -------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 255 251 250 98 100 California .......: 450 420 430 96 102 Colorado .........: 870 910 900 103 99 Idaho ............: 240 260 260 108 100 Iowa .............: 620 600 600 97 100 Kansas ...........: 2,090 2,220 2,170 104 98 Minnesota ........: 155 146 150 97 103 Nebraska .........: 2,420 2,370 2,370 98 100 Oklahoma .........: 270 290 300 111 103 South Dakota .....: 255 240 230 90 96 Texas ............: 2,430 2,430 2,420 100 100 Washington .......: 195 195 185 95 95 : Other States .....: 325 320 340 105 106 : United States ....: 10,575 10,652 10,605 100 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During December 2016 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :December 2015 :November 2016 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 33 27 30 91 111 California .......: 49 48 65 133 135 Colorado .........: 115 140 130 113 93 Idaho ............: 43 51 38 88 75 Iowa .............: 90 102 104 116 102 Kansas ...........: 335 370 395 118 107 Minnesota ........: 16 19 19 119 100 Nebraska .........: 390 510 450 115 88 Oklahoma .........: 35 52 54 154 104 South Dakota .....: 41 47 38 93 81 Texas ............: 305 390 375 123 96 Washington .......: 38 41 32 84 78 : Other States .....: 37 46 65 176 141 : United States ....: 1,527 1,843 1,795 118 97 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During December :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 25 30 25 30 25 30 40 40 115 130 Kansas ...........: 50 60 75 95 105 130 105 110 335 395 Nebraska .........: 50 60 95 110 95 120 150 160 390 450 Texas ............: 115 135 70 100 70 90 50 50 305 375 : Other States .....: 135 150 90 115 62 80 95 100 382 445 : United States ....: 375 435 355 450 357 450 440 460 1,527 1,795 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During November :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 35 45 35 35 30 25 40 35 140 140 Kansas ...........: 55 55 70 90 85 110 95 115 305 370 Nebraska .........: 115 120 110 150 60 85 155 155 440 510 Texas ............: 110 105 75 95 75 125 50 65 310 390 : Other States .....: 155 145 97 120 60 80 95 88 407 433 : United States ....: 470 470 387 490 310 425 435 458 1,602 1,843 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During December 2016 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :December 2015 :November 2016 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 21 28 30 143 107 California .......: 49 45 52 106 116 Colorado .........: 130 135 135 104 100 Idaho ............: 37 39 36 97 92 Iowa .............: 97 100 102 105 102 Kansas ...........: 370 370 430 116 116 Minnesota ........: 12 14 14 117 100 Nebraska .........: 440 445 440 100 99 Oklahoma .........: 38 55 43 113 78 South Dakota .....: 35 46 46 131 100 Texas ............: 370 435 375 101 86 Washington .......: 45 40 41 91 103 : Other States .....: 30 35 43 143 123 : United States ....: 1,674 1,787 1,787 107 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During December 2016 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :December 2015 :November 2016 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 5 1 1 20 100 California .......: 5 3 3 60 100 Colorado .........: 5 5 5 100 100 Idaho ............: 1 2 2 200 100 Iowa .............: 3 2 2 67 100 Kansas ...........: 15 20 15 100 75 Minnesota ........: 1 1 1 100 100 Nebraska .........: 20 15 10 50 67 Oklahoma .........: 2 2 1 50 50 South Dakota .....: 1 1 2 200 200 Texas ............: 15 15 10 67 67 Washington .......: 3 1 1 33 100 : Other States .....: 2 1 2 100 200 : United States ....: 78 69 55 71 80 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number on Feed by Class on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Quarter - States and United States: 2016 and 2017 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Steers and steer calves : Heifers and heifer calves :----------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Jan 1, : Oct 1, : Jan 1, : Jan 1, : Oct 1, : Jan 1, : 2016 : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2016 : 2017 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Arizona ............: 247 258 242 8 5 8 California .........: 420 385 400 30 30 30 Colorado ...........: 590 560 570 280 290 330 Idaho ..............: 165 155 180 75 85 80 Iowa ...............: 470 410 460 150 160 140 Kansas .............: 1,160 1,200 1,170 930 1,020 1,000 Minnesota ..........: 127 101 125 28 17 25 Nebraska ...........: 1,560 1,410 1,510 860 750 860 Oklahoma ...........: 185 185 190 85 105 110 South Dakota .......: 150 125 135 105 85 95 Texas ..............: 1,740 1,730 1,710 690 720 710 Washington .........: 125 115 115 70 70 70 : Other States .......: 225 185 215 100 100 125 : United States ......: 7,164 6,819 7,022 3,411 3,437 3,583 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are steers and heifers being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are steers and heifers put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are steers and heifers shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by Regional Field Offices. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.6 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 4,000 head, ranging from 0 to 30,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 1 time and has been below the latest estimate 9 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent ------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ---- : Number on feed ...............: 0.1 0.1 4 0 30 9 1 : Placements ...................: 0.4 0.7 3 0 28 9 1 : Marketings ...................: 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 David Colwell - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-8784 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Michael Klamm - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ....... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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