Mt An 2-1 (9-07) Cattle On Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 21, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Mike Miller at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 6 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.3 million head on September 1, 2007. The inventory was 6 percent below September 1, 2006 but 3 percent above September 1, 2005. Placements in feedlots during August totaled 2.12 million, 7 percent below 2006 but 6 percent above 2005. Net placements were 2.07 million. During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 490,000, 600-699 pounds were 440,000, 700-799 pounds were 549,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 640,000. Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 2.07 million, virtually unchanged from 2006 but 2 percent above 2005. Other disappearance totaled 50,000 during August, 15 percent below 2006 and 6 percent below 2005. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, September 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Aug 1 1/ : 10,093 10,822 10,299 102 95 Placed on Feed During Aug : 1,993 2,290 2,119 106 93 Fed Cattle Marketed During Aug : 2,033 2,067 2,066 102 100 Other Disappearance During Aug 2/ : 53 59 50 94 85 On Feed Sep 1 1/ : 10,000 10,986 10,302 103 94 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, August 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Jul 1 1/ : 10,394 10,872 10,737 103 99 Placed on Feed During Jul : 1,678 1,958 1,622 97 83 Fed Cattle Marketed During Jul : 1,918 1,950 1,999 104 103 Other Disappearance During Jul 2/ : 61 58 61 100 105 On Feed Aug 1 1/ : 10,093 10,822 10,299 102 95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Sep 1, 2007 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Sep 1, 2006 : Aug 1, 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Aug -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 336 341 348 104 102 CA : 520 540 530 102 98 CO : 960 870 850 89 98 ID : 235 205 205 87 100 IA : 455 500 490 108 98 KS : 2,390 2,100 2,140 90 102 NE : 2,050 1,910 1,930 94 101 NM : 142 129 131 92 102 OK : 345 305 310 90 102 SD : 155 175 175 113 100 TX : 2,960 2,780 2,740 93 99 WA : 158 144 148 94 103 : Oth Sts: 280 300 305 109 102 : US : 10,986 10,299 10,302 94 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Aug 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Aug 2006 : Jul 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Jul -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 30 32 36 120 113 CA : 66 51 54 82 106 CO : 200 115 170 85 148 ID : 55 35 48 87 137 IA : 80 64 71 89 111 KS : 590 430 520 88 121 NE : 470 350 465 99 133 NM : 26 12 22 85 183 OK : 77 48 75 97 156 SD : 30 22 37 123 168 TX : 570 390 520 91 133 WA : 35 27 35 100 130 : Oth Sts: 61 46 66 108 143 : US : 2,290 1,622 2,119 93 131 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During August :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 50 25 25 30 50 40 75 75 200 170 KS : 140 100 120 120 185 160 145 140 590 520 NE : 80 75 75 70 115 115 200 205 470 465 TX : 280 160 140 160 95 140 55 60 570 520 : Oth Sts : 130 130 70 60 90 94 170 160 460 444 : US : 680 490 430 440 535 549 645 640 2,290 2,119 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During July :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 40 15 30 20 40 35 35 45 145 115 KS : 140 75 145 90 165 140 140 125 590 430 NE : 60 55 65 60 100 90 155 145 380 350 TX : 220 110 110 100 105 115 45 65 480 390 : Oth Sts : 110 105 53 42 80 65 120 125 363 337 : US : 570 360 403 312 490 445 495 505 1,958 1,622 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Aug 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Aug 2006 : Jul 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Jul -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 31 33 28 90 85 CA : 59 54 62 105 115 CO : 175 175 185 106 106 ID : 44 49 47 107 96 IA : 69 73 80 116 110 KS : 540 450 465 86 103 NE : 360 480 435 121 91 NM : 26 14 19 73 136 OK : 76 67 69 91 103 SD : 37 42 36 97 86 TX : 570 470 550 96 117 WA : 30 32 30 100 94 : Oth Sts: 50 60 60 120 100 : US : 2,067 1,999 2,066 100 103 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Aug 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Aug 2006 : Jul 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Jul -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 2 1 1 50 100 CA : 2 2 2 100 100 CO : 5 10 5 100 50 ID : 1 1 1 100 100 IA : 1 1 1 100 100 KS : 20 20 15 75 75 NE : 10 10 10 100 100 NM : 2 1 1 50 100 OK : 1 1 1 100 100 SD : 3 2 1 33 50 TX : 10 10 10 100 100 WA : 1 1 1 100 100 : Oth Sts: 1 1 1 100 100 : US : 59 61 50 85 82 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 10 years is .1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.3 million head by more than .1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed .3 percent. The following table also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 11,000 head, ranging from 0 to 30,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been below the final estimate 5 times, and above the final estimate 2 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of U.S. September 1 Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.1 0.3 29.4 11 0 30 2 5 : Placements : 0.6 1.1 24.5 8 0 32 1 5 : Marketings : 0.5 0.9 18.1 7 0 20 1 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch................................(202) 720-3570 Shawn Clark, Head, Livestock Section.................................(202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs.....................................(202) 720-3106 Vacant - Dairy Products.........................................(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows.................(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats & Kids......................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed............................(202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter..............................(515) 284-4340 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices........................(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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USDA Data Users' Meeting October 29, 2007 Crowne Plaza Chicago O'Hare Rosemont, Illinois (847) 671-6350 The USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing an open forum for data users. The purpose will be to provide updates on pending changes in the various statistical and information programs and seek comments and input from data users. Other USDA agencies to be represented will include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board. The Foreign Trade Division from the Census Bureau will also be included in the meeting. For registration details or additional information for the Data Users' Meeting, see the NASS homepage at www.nass.usda.gov/forum/ or contact Marjorie Taylor (NASS) at (202) 690-8141 or at marjorie_taylor@nass.usda.gov. This Data Users' Meeting precedes an Industry Outlook meeting that will be held at the same location on October 30, 2007. The Outlook meeting brings together analysts from various commodity sectors to discuss the outlook situation. For registration details or additional information for the Industry Outlook Meeting see the Livestock and Marketing Information Center (LMIC) homepage at www.lmic.info or contact Jim Robb at (720) 544-2941 or at robb@lmic.info.