Mt An 2-1 (9-06) Cattle On Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 22, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Mike Miller at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 10 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.0 million head on September 1, 2006. The inventory was 10 percent above September 1, 2005 and 10 percent above September 1, 2004. This is the highest September 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in feedlots during August totaled 2.30 million, 15 percent above 2005 and 9 percent above 2004. Net placements were 2.24 million. During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 680,000, 600-699 pounds were 435,000, 700-799 pounds were 535,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 650,000. Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 2.08 million, 2 percent above 2005 and 8 percent above 2004. Other disappearance totaled 59,000 during August, 11 percent above 2005 and 5 percent above 2004. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, September 1, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2006 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Aug 1 1/ : 9,868 10,093 10,822 110 107 Placed on Feed During Aug : 2,102 1,993 2,300 109 115 Fed Cattle Marketed During Aug : 1,926 2,033 2,077 108 102 Other Disappearance During Aug 2/ : 56 53 59 105 111 On Feed Sep 1 1/ : 9,988 10,000 10,986 110 110 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, August 1, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2006 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Jul 1 1/ : 10,132 10,394 10,872 107 105 Placed on Feed During Jul : 1,719 1,678 1,963 114 117 Fed Cattle Marketed During Jul : 1,925 1,918 1,955 102 102 Other Disappearance During Jul 2/ : 58 61 58 100 95 On Feed Aug 1 1/ : 9,868 10,093 10,822 110 107 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Sep 1, 2006 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Sep 1, 2005 : Aug 1, 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Aug -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 314 339 336 107 99 CA : 530 515 520 98 101 CO : 770 940 960 125 102 ID : 250 225 235 94 104 IA : 395 445 455 115 102 KS : 2,210 2,360 2,390 108 101 NE : 1,770 1,950 2,050 116 105 NM : 135 144 142 105 99 OK : 320 345 345 108 100 SD : 132 165 155 117 94 TX : 2,800 2,970 2,960 106 100 WA : 139 154 158 114 103 : Oth Sts: 235 270 280 119 104 : US : 10,000 10,822 10,986 110 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Aug 2006 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Aug 2005 : Jul 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Jul -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 35 31 30 86 97 CA : 62 55 66 106 120 CO : 155 150 210 135 140 ID : 51 36 55 108 153 IA : 69 60 80 116 133 KS : 520 590 590 113 100 NE : 415 380 470 113 124 NM : 28 23 26 93 113 OK : 70 58 77 110 133 SD : 24 24 30 125 125 TX : 480 480 570 119 119 WA : 30 33 35 117 106 : Oth Sts: 54 43 61 113 142 : US : 1,993 1,963 2,300 115 117 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During August :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 20 50 25 30 40 50 70 80 155 210 KS : 85 140 105 120 165 185 165 145 520 590 NE : 43 80 65 75 112 115 195 200 415 470 TX : 140 280 130 140 135 95 75 55 480 570 : Oth Sts : 130 130 60 70 88 90 145 170 423 460 : US : 418 680 385 435 540 535 650 650 1,993 2,300 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During July :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 20 40 20 30 45 40 40 40 125 150 KS : 85 140 100 145 150 165 145 140 480 590 NE : 40 60 65 65 90 100 130 155 325 380 TX : 130 220 105 110 110 105 55 45 400 480 : Oth Sts : 125 110 48 53 70 80 105 120 348 363 : US : 400 570 338 403 465 490 475 500 1,678 1,963 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Aug 2006 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Aug 2005 : Jul 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Jul -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 34 34 31 91 91 CA : 57 67 59 104 88 CO : 200 180 185 93 103 ID : 50 40 44 88 110 IA : 72 73 69 96 95 KS : 490 495 540 110 109 NE : 365 410 360 99 88 NM : 24 18 26 108 144 OK : 68 52 76 112 146 SD : 34 38 37 109 97 TX : 560 480 570 102 119 WA : 27 26 30 111 115 : Oth Sts: 52 42 50 96 119 : US : 2,033 1,955 2,077 102 106 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Aug 2006 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Aug 2005 : Jul 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Jul -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 1 2 2 200 100 CA : 5 3 2 40 67 CO : 5 10 5 100 50 ID : 1 1 1 100 100 IA : 2 2 1 50 50 KS : 10 15 20 200 133 NE : 10 10 10 100 100 NM : 3 1 2 67 200 OK : 2 1 1 50 100 SD : 1 1 3 300 300 TX : 10 10 10 100 100 WA : 1 1 1 100 100 : Oth Sts: 2 1 1 50 100 : US : 53 58 59 111 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 10 years is .1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.0 million head by more than .1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed .3 percent. The following table also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 11,000 head, ranging from 0 to 30,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been below the final estimate 5 times, and above the final estimate 2 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of U.S. September 1 Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.1 0.3 29.4 11 0 30 2 5 : Placements : 0.6 1.0 23.8 7 0 32 0 5 : Marketings : 0.4 0.8 17.1 6 0 20 0 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief Livestock Branch(202) 720-3570 William Weaver, Head, Livestock Section (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs(202) 720-3106 Shawn Clark - Dairy Products(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed(202) 720-3040 Katy Paulsen - Livestock Slaughter(515) 284-4340 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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