Mt An 2-1 (3-07) Cattle On Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 23, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Mike Miller at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 4 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on March 1, 2007. The inventory was 4 percent below March 1, 2006 but 4 percent above March 1, 2005. Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.66 million, 4 percent above 2006 and 9 percent above 2005. Net placements were 1.58 million. During February, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 325,000, 600-699 pounds were 334,000, 700-799 pounds were 505,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 495,000. Marketings of fed cattle during February totaled 1.71 million, 7 percent above 2006 and 5 percent above 2005. Other disappearance totaled 75,000 during February, 3 percent above 2006 but 3 percent below 2005. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, March 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Feb 1 1/ : 11,342 12,110 11,726 103 97 Placed on Feed During Feb : 1,523 1,588 1,659 109 104 Fed Cattle Marketed During Feb : 1,634 1,602 1,711 105 107 Other Disappearance During Feb 2/ : 77 73 75 97 103 On Feed Mar 1 1/ : 11,154 12,023 11,599 104 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, February 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Jan 1 1/ : 11,299 11,804 11,974 106 101 Placed on Feed During Jan : 1,888 2,199 1,690 90 77 Fed Cattle Marketed During Jan : 1,772 1,810 1,841 104 102 Other Disappearance During Jan 2/ : 73 83 97 133 117 On Feed Feb 1 1/ : 11,342 12,110 11,726 103 97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Mar 1, 2007 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Mar 1, 2006 : Feb 1, 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Feb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 351 334 329 94 99 CA : 550 540 530 96 98 CO : 1,090 1,040 1,010 93 97 ID : 255 255 250 98 98 IA : 520 530 530 102 100 KS : 2,610 2,430 2,420 93 100 NE : 2,450 2,540 2,510 102 99 NM : 143 135 130 91 96 OK : 365 350 350 96 100 SD : 210 230 230 110 100 TX : 3,010 2,800 2,790 93 100 WA : 154 177 170 110 96 : Oth Sts: 315 365 350 111 96 : US : 12,023 11,726 11,599 96 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Feb 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Feb 2006 : Jan 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Jan -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 31 33 24 77 73 CA : 63 64 60 95 94 CO : 140 155 140 100 90 ID : 32 43 39 122 91 IA : 60 76 64 107 84 KS : 410 365 395 96 108 NE : 330 420 360 109 86 NM : 13 8 14 108 175 OK : 49 50 59 120 118 SD : 33 50 43 130 86 TX : 360 340 390 108 115 WA : 25 27 25 100 93 : Oth Sts: 42 59 46 110 78 : US : 1,588 1,690 1,659 104 98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During February :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 20 15 30 30 50 45 40 50 140 140 KS : 60 50 85 85 145 145 120 115 410 395 NE : 55 40 60 60 105 110 110 150 330 360 TX : 110 100 70 100 120 120 60 70 360 390 : Oth Sts : 110 120 55 59 85 85 98 110 348 374 : US : 355 325 300 334 505 505 428 495 1,588 1,659 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During January :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 35 15 45 35 85 55 60 50 225 155 KS : 95 50 125 110 220 125 130 80 570 365 NE : 50 45 80 85 150 150 145 140 425 420 TX : 210 85 115 85 150 120 65 50 540 340 : Oth Sts : 140 125 82 75 97 95 120 115 439 410 : US : 530 320 447 390 702 545 520 435 2,199 1,690 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Feb 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Feb 2006 : Jan 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Jan -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 24 32 28 117 88 CA : 56 72 67 120 93 CO : 155 200 160 103 80 ID : 38 47 43 113 91 IA : 58 64 63 109 98 KS : 360 445 380 106 85 NE : 360 405 380 106 94 NM : 14 8 18 129 225 OK : 56 48 58 104 121 SD : 29 42 41 141 98 TX : 370 390 385 104 99 WA : 22 33 31 141 94 : Oth Sts: 60 55 57 95 104 : US : 1,602 1,841 1,711 107 93 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Feb 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Feb 2006 : Jan 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Jan -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 2 1 1 50 100 CA : 7 2 3 43 150 CO : 5 15 10 200 67 ID : 4 1 1 25 100 IA : 2 2 1 50 50 KS : 20 30 25 125 83 NE : 10 15 10 100 67 NM : 2 1 1 50 100 OK : 3 2 1 33 50 SD : 4 3 2 50 67 TX : 10 20 15 150 75 WA : 2 1 1 50 100 : Oth Sts: 2 4 4 200 100 : US : 73 97 75 103 77 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 10 years is .1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.6 million head by more than .1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed .2 percent. The following table also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 7,000 head, ranging from 0 to 25,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been below the final estimate 5 times, and above the final estimate 0 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of U.S. March 1 Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.1 0.2 22.6 7 0 25 0 5 : Placements : 1.1 2.0 33.7 12 0 42 2 5 : Marketings : 0.9 1.6 27.4 10 0 40 1 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief Livestock Branch(202) 720-3570 William Weaver, Head, Livestock Section (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs(202) 720-3106 Shawn Clark - Dairy Products(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed(202) 720-3040 Katy Paulsen - Livestock Slaughter(515) 284-4340 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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