Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released August 19, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Up 8 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.6 million head on August 1, 2011. The inventory was 8 percent above August 1, 2010. This is the third highest August 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in feedlots during July totaled 2.15 million, 22 percent above 2010. This is the highest placement total for the month of July since the series began in 1996. Net placements were 2.09 million head. During July, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 625,000, 600-699 pounds were 405,000, 700-799 pounds were 498,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 625,000. Marketings of fed cattle during July totaled 1.91 million, slightly above 2010. This is the second lowest fed cattle marketings for the month of July since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 67,000 during July, 40 percent above 2010. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: August 1, 2010 and 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2010 : 2011 :previous year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed July 1 ......................: 10,071 10,448 104 Placed on feed during July ..........: 1,758 2,153 122 Fed cattle marketed during July .....: 1,901 1,908 100 Other disappearance during July .....: 48 67 140 On feed August 1 ....................: 9,880 10,626 108 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: July 1, 2010 and 2011 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2010 : 2011 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed June 1 .........................: 10,495 10,928 104 Placed on feed during June .............: 1,628 1,695 104 Fed cattle marketed during June ........: 1,997 2,102 105 Other disappearance during June ........: 55 73 133 On feed July 1 .........................: 10,071 10,448 104 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : August 1, 2011 : : :----------------------------------------- State : August 1, 2010 : July 1, 2011 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 head ------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ........: 248 287 289 117 101 California .....: 435 470 480 110 102 Colorado .......: 890 1,000 970 109 97 Idaho ..........: 190 215 195 103 91 Iowa ...........: 560 590 560 100 95 Kansas .........: 2,040 2,030 2,180 107 107 Nebraska .......: 1,960 2,020 1,980 101 98 Oklahoma .......: 335 350 360 107 103 South Dakota ...: 200 210 195 98 93 Texas ..........: 2,520 2,700 2,860 113 106 Washington .....: 163 197 190 117 96 : Other States ...: 339 379 367 108 97 : United States ..: 9,880 10,448 10,626 108 102 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During July 2011 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : July 2010 : June 2011 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 21 25 26 124 104 California .......: 51 70 62 122 89 Colorado .........: 140 105 170 121 162 Idaho ............: 34 34 24 71 71 Iowa .............: 69 64 60 87 94 Kansas ...........: 500 390 580 116 149 Nebraska .........: 370 310 390 105 126 Oklahoma .........: 49 62 86 176 139 South Dakota .....: 33 31 22 67 71 Texas ............: 410 500 640 156 128 Washington .......: 34 41 42 124 102 : Other States .....: 47 63 51 109 81 : United States ....: 1,758 1,695 2,153 122 127 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : During July :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 15 45 20 25 40 40 65 60 140 170 Kansas .......: 75 95 90 115 165 190 170 180 500 580 Nebraska .....: 50 60 70 70 90 100 160 160 370 390 Texas ........: 190 305 75 140 85 100 60 95 410 640 : Other States .: 85 120 50 55 68 68 135 130 338 373 : United States : 415 625 305 405 448 498 590 625 1,758 2,153 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During June :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 20 20 20 25 30 30 55 30 125 105 Kansas .......: 65 75 80 95 115 120 105 100 365 390 Nebraska .....: 60 50 50 60 70 70 130 130 310 310 Texas ........: 175 210 105 130 125 120 65 40 470 500 : Other States .: 120 105 45 70 68 80 125 135 358 390 : United States : 440 460 300 380 408 420 480 435 1,628 1,695 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During July 2011 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : July 2010 : June 2011 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 27 27 23 85 85 California .......: 43 58 48 112 83 Colorado .........: 165 175 195 118 111 Idaho ............: 43 47 41 95 87 Iowa .............: 77 80 88 114 110 Kansas ...........: 460 460 420 91 91 Nebraska .........: 400 465 415 104 89 Oklahoma .........: 63 65 74 117 114 South Dakota .....: 47 46 35 74 76 Texas ............: 470 570 465 99 82 Washington .......: 38 39 44 116 113 : Other States .....: 68 70 60 88 86 : United States ....: 1,901 2,102 1,908 100 91 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During July 2011 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : July 2010 : June 2011 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 1 1 100 100 California .......: 3 2 4 133 200 Colorado .........: 5 10 5 100 50 Idaho ............: 1 2 3 300 150 Iowa .............: 2 4 2 100 50 Kansas ...........: 10 10 10 100 100 Nebraska .........: 10 15 15 150 100 Oklahoma .........: 1 2 2 200 100 South Dakota .....: 1 10 2 200 20 Texas ............: 10 10 15 150 150 Washington .......: 1 4 5 500 125 : Other States .....: 3 3 3 100 100 : United States ....: 48 73 67 140 92 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 11 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 5 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 5 States include Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.6 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 9,000 head, ranging from 0 to 30,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 10 times and has been below the latest estimate 10 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent ------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : Number on feed ...............: 0.1 0.2 9 0 30 10 10 : Placements ...................: 0.3 0.6 3 0 20 11 6 : Marketings ...................: 0.3 0.5 3 0 21 9 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Dairy Products Prices ....... (202) 690-2168 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ..... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats ............. (202) 720-4751 Lorie Warren - Dairy Products ................ (202) 690-3236 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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