Mt An 2-1 (5-08) Cattle On Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released May 16, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Jason Hardegree at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on May 1, 2008. The inventory was 1 percent below May 1, 2007 and 4 percent below May 1, 2006. Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.54 million, 2 percent below 2007 and 5 percent below 2006. Net placements were 1.46 million head. During April, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 315,000, 600-699 pounds were 278,000, 700-799 pounds were 428,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 515,000. Marketings of fed cattle during April totaled 2.01 million, 11 percent above 2007 and 13 percent above 2006. This is the highest fed cattle marketings for the month of April since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 75,000 during April, 24 percent below 2007 and 14 percent below 2006. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, May 1, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2008 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Apr 1 1/ : 11,812 11,644 11,684 99 100 Placed on Feed During Apr : 1,619 1,568 1,536 95 98 Fed Cattle Marketed During Apr : 1,785 1,816 2,010 113 111 Other Disappearance During Apr 2/ : 87 99 75 86 76 On Feed May 1 : 11,559 11,297 11,135 96 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, April 1, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2008 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Mar 1 1/ : 12,023 11,599 11,853 99 102 Placed on Feed During Mar : 1,837 1,960 1,736 95 89 Fed Cattle Marketed During Mar : 1,958 1,843 1,842 94 100 Other Disappearance During Mar 2/ : 90 72 63 70 88 On Feed Apr 1 1/ : 11,812 11,644 11,684 99 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : May 1, 2008 : : :------------------------------------------ State : May 1, 2007 : Apr 1, 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Apr -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 340 374 370 109 99 CA : 550 530 520 95 98 CO : 1,020 1,020 950 93 93 ID : 235 230 225 96 98 IA : 530 550 530 100 96 KS : 2,350 2,420 2,290 97 95 NE : 2,420 2,450 2,380 98 97 NM : 118 158 150 127 95 OK : 335 340 305 91 90 SD : 230 225 220 96 98 TX : 2,680 2,880 2,690 100 93 WA : 154 152 155 101 102 : Oth Sts: 335 355 350 104 99 : US : 11,297 11,684 11,135 99 95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Apr 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Apr 2007 : Mar 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Mar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 31 30 34 110 113 CA : 85 55 64 75 116 CO : 150 135 115 77 85 ID : 35 37 28 80 76 IA : 61 59 59 97 100 KS : 355 440 360 101 82 NE : 290 360 340 117 94 NM : 12 10 9 75 90 OK : 54 50 40 74 80 SD : 36 32 33 92 103 TX : 380 450 360 95 80 WA : 22 30 33 150 110 : Oth Sts: 57 48 61 107 127 : US : 1,568 1,736 1,536 98 88 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During April :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 30 15 30 25 40 35 50 40 150 115 KS : 60 45 65 70 110 115 120 130 355 360 NE : 50 50 40 60 80 90 120 140 290 340 TX : 105 90 75 80 110 110 90 80 380 360 : Oth Sts : 130 115 53 43 90 78 120 125 393 361 : US : 375 315 263 278 430 428 500 515 1,568 1,536 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During March :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 15 20 30 25 50 45 65 45 160 135 KS : 70 55 115 95 170 150 155 140 510 440 NE : 40 50 50 50 110 110 150 150 350 360 TX : 90 100 120 105 200 165 110 80 520 450 : Oth Sts : 130 110 60 55 110 91 120 95 420 351 : US : 345 335 375 330 640 561 600 510 1,960 1,736 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Apr 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Apr 2007 : Mar 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Mar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 30 31 37 123 119 CA : 61 65 70 115 108 CO : 130 160 165 127 103 ID : 40 39 32 80 82 IA : 59 68 77 131 113 KS : 445 415 470 106 113 NE : 340 390 400 118 103 NM : 24 11 16 67 145 OK : 68 58 74 109 128 SD : 34 37 37 109 100 TX : 490 480 540 110 113 WA : 30 28 29 97 104 : Oth Sts: 65 60 63 97 105 : US : 1,816 1,842 2,010 111 109 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Apr 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Apr 2007 : Mar 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Mar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 1 2 1 100 50 CA : 4 5 4 100 80 CO : 20 5 20 100 400 ID : 5 3 1 20 33 IA : 2 1 2 100 200 KS : 40 15 20 50 133 NE : 10 10 10 100 100 NM : 1 1 1 100 100 OK : 1 2 1 100 50 SD : 2 5 1 50 20 TX : 10 10 10 100 100 WA : 1 1 1 100 100 : Oth Sts: 2 3 3 150 100 : US : 99 63 75 76 119 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 10 years is .1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.1 million head by more than .1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed .2 percent. The following table also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 10,000 head, ranging from 0 to 35,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been below the final estimate 7 times, and above the final estimate 1 time. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of U.S. May 1 Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.1 0.2 27.5 10 0 35.0 1 7 : Placements : 0.6 1.1 17.3 7 0.0 22.0 3 4 : Marketings : 0.3 0.6 11.7 5 0.0 12.0 3 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch............................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section............................(202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products..............................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices.......................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed.................(202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter.......................(515) 284-4340 Scott Hollis - Sheep and Goats...........................(202) 690-2424 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows..............(202) 720-3278 Nicholas Streff - Hogs and Pigs..........................(202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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