Mt An 2-1 (8-06) Cattle On Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released August 18, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Mike Miller at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 7 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.8 million head on August 1, 2006. The inventory was 7 percent above August 1, 2005 and 10 percent above August 1, 2004. This is the second highest August 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.96 million, 17 percent above 2005 and 14 percent above 2004. Net placements were 1.91 million. During July, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 570,000, 600-699 pounds were 403,000, 700-799 pounds were 490,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 500,000. Marketings of fed cattle during July totaled 1.96 million, 2 percent above 2005 and 2 percent above 2004. Other disappearance totaled 58,000 during July, 5 percent below 2005 but unchanged from 2004. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, August 1, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2006 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Jul 1 1/ : 10,132 10,394 10,872 107 105 Placed on Feed During Jul : 1,719 1,678 1,963 114 117 Fed Cattle Marketed During Jul : 1,925 1,918 1,955 102 102 Other Disappearance During Jul 2/ : 58 61 58 100 95 On Feed Aug 1 1/ : 9,868 10,093 10,822 110 107 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, July 1, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2006 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Jun 1 1/ : 10,640 10,771 11,187 105 104 Placed on Feed During Jun : 1,647 1,769 *1,946 118 110 Fed Cattle Marketed During Jun : 2,085 2,083 *2,198 105 106 Other Disappearance During Jun 2/ : 70 63 63 90 100 On Feed Jul 1 1/ : 10,132 10,394 10,872 107 105 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Aug 1, 2006 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Aug 1, 2005 : Jul 1, 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Jul -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 314 344 339 108 99 CA : 530 530 515 97 97 CO : 820 980 940 115 96 ID : 250 230 225 90 98 IA : 400 460 445 111 97 KS : 2,190 2,280 2,360 108 104 NE : 1,730 1,990 1,950 113 98 NM : 134 140 144 107 103 OK : 320 340 345 108 101 SD : 143 180 165 115 92 TX : 2,890 2,980 2,970 103 100 WA : 137 148 154 112 104 : Oth Sts: 235 270 270 115 100 : US : 10,093 10,872 10,822 107 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Jul 2006 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Jul 2005 : Jun 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Jun -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 29 34 31 107 91 CA : 72 73 55 76 75 CO : 125 *170 150 120 88 ID : 36 58 36 100 62 IA : 49 59 60 122 102 KS : 480 445 590 123 133 NE : 325 370 380 117 103 NM : 23 33 23 100 70 OK : 62 63 58 94 92 SD : 15 29 24 160 83 TX : 400 530 480 120 91 WA : 26 39 33 127 85 : Oth Sts: 36 43 43 119 100 : US : 1,678 *1,946 1,963 117 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During July :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 20 40 20 30 45 40 40 40 125 150 KS : 85 140 100 145 150 165 145 140 480 590 NE : 40 60 65 65 90 100 130 155 325 380 TX : 130 220 105 110 110 105 55 45 400 480 : Oth Sts : 125 110 48 53 70 80 105 120 348 363 : US : 400 570 338 403 465 490 475 500 1,678 1,963 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During June :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 25 50 25 35 40 55 40 *30 130 *170 KS : 80 115 85 105 125 105 110 120 400 445 NE : 52 80 38 60 75 90 125 140 290 370 TX : 130 190 150 170 160 115 110 55 550 530 : Oth Sts : 125 130 49 60 80 91 145 150 399 431 : US : 412 565 347 430 480 456 530 *495 1,769 *1,946 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Jul 2006 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Jul 2005 : Jun 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Jun -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 37 30 34 92 113 CA : 59 74 67 114 91 CO : 200 *210 180 90 86 ID : 45 55 40 89 73 IA : 63 66 73 116 111 KS : 470 550 495 105 90 NE : 405 490 410 101 84 NM : 18 27 18 100 67 OK : 61 67 52 85 78 SD : 30 41 38 127 93 TX : 450 500 480 107 96 WA : 30 31 26 87 84 : Oth Sts: 50 57 42 84 74 : US : 1,918 *2,198 1,955 102 89 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Jul 2006 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Jul 2005 : Jun 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Jun -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 2 1 2 100 200 CA : 3 4 3 100 75 CO : 5 10 10 200 100 ID : 1 3 1 100 33 IA : 1 3 2 200 67 KS : 20 15 15 75 100 NE : 10 10 10 100 100 NM : 3 1 1 33 100 OK : 1 1 1 100 100 SD : 3 3 1 33 33 TX : 10 10 10 100 100 WA : 1 1 1 100 100 : Oth Sts: 1 1 1 100 100 : US : 61 63 58 95 92 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 10 years is .1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.8 million head by more than .1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed .2 percent. The following table also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 8,000 head, ranging from 0 to 20,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been below the final estimate 6 times, and above the final estimate 1 time. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of U.S. August 1 Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.1 0.2 23.8 8 0 20 1 6 : Placements : 0.3 0.5 9.3 3 0 11 2 2 : Marketings : 0.3 0.5 10.7 2 0 20 1 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief Livestock Branch(202) 720-3570 William Weaver, Head, Livestock Section (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs(202) 720-3106 Shawn Clark - Dairy Products(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed(202) 720-3040 Katy Paulsen - Livestock Slaughter(515) 284-4340 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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