Mt An 2-1 (1-08) Cattle On Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 25, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Mike Miller at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 12.1 million head on January 1, 2008. The inventory was 1 percent above January 1, 2007 and 2 percent above January 1, 2006. This is the highest January 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. The inventory included 7.65 million steers and steer calves, up 1 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 63 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.38 million head, up 2 percent from 2007. Placements in feedlots during December totaled 1.70 million, 1 percent below 2007 and 10 percent below 2006. Net placements were 1.64 million head. During December, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 480,000, 600-699 pounds were 505,000, 700-799 pounds were 420,000 and 800 pounds and greater were 296,000. Marketings of fed cattle during December totaled 1.65 million, 1 percent above 2007 but 4 percent below 2006. This is the second lowest fed cattle marketings for the month of December since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 58,000 during December, 34 percent below 2007 and 36 percent below 2006. Special Note November placements in New Mexico (NM) include 9,000 head which should have been reported in October. Since October placements are not open for revision at this time, placements were included in November to negate an imbalance. Based on current New Mexico data, November inventory should be 143,000 head. During October and November, placements should be 31,000 head for each month. Marketings are not affected by these revisions. U.S. level placements and inventory should be adjusted by these same amounts bringing October and November placements to 2,725,000 head and 2,125,000 head, respectively. U.S. inventory for November should be 11,769,000 head. These adjustments along with any other revisions will be made during the normal annual revision process and published in the February Cattle on Feed report. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, January 1, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2008 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Dec 1 1/ 2/ : 11,726 11,973 *12,099 103 101 Placed on Feed During Dec 2/ : 1,884 1,714 1,701 90 99 Fed Cattle Marketed During Dec 2/ : 1,715 1,625 1,645 96 101 Other Disappearance During Dec 2/ 3/ : 91 88 58 64 66 On Feed Jan 1 1/ : 11,804 11,974 12,097 102 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *Revised. 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ December preceding year. 3/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, December 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Nov 1 1/ : 11,473 11,969 11,760 103 98 Placed on Feed During Nov : 2,045 1,884 *2,134 104 113 Fed Cattle Marketed During Nov : 1,701 1,797 1,738 102 97 Other Disappearance During Nov 2/ : 91 83 57 63 69 On Feed Dec 1 1/ : 11,726 11,973 *12,099 103 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed by Class, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, January 1, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2008 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ----- Percent : Class on Feed Jan 1 : Steers and Steer Calves : 7,570 7,574 7,646 101 101 Heifers and Heifer Calves : 4,147 4,303 4,381 106 102 Cows and Bulls : 87 97 70 80 72 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Jan 1, 2008 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Jan 1, 2007 : Dec 1, 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Dec -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 334 367 368 110 100 CA : 550 555 560 102 101 CO : 1,100 1,070 1,100 100 103 ID : 260 240 235 90 98 IA : 520 570 570 110 100 KS : 2,540 2,500 2,480 98 99 NE : 2,540 2,520 2,530 100 100 NM : 136 *149 160 118 107 OK : 350 345 350 100 101 SD : 225 215 230 102 107 TX : 2,870 3,010 2,960 103 98 WA : 184 168 164 89 98 : Oth Sts: 365 390 390 107 100 : US : 11,974 *12,099 12,097 101 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Dec 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Dec 2006 : Nov 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Nov -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 26 37 26 100 70 CA : 77 73 67 87 92 CO : 135 190 170 126 89 ID : 39 48 39 100 81 IA : 82 96 71 87 74 KS : 410 450 385 94 86 NE : 390 485 355 91 73 NM : 15 *40 26 173 65 OK : 46 62 44 96 71 SD : 50 50 50 100 100 TX : 370 510 380 103 75 WA : 24 31 25 104 81 : Oth Sts: 50 62 63 126 102 : US : 1,714 *2,134 1,701 99 80 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During December :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 25 30 40 55 40 50 30 35 135 170 KS : 95 80 140 120 105 120 70 65 410 385 NE : 65 65 115 100 115 100 95 90 390 355 TX : 140 145 115 125 80 80 35 30 370 380 : Oth Sts : 145 160 94 105 80 70 90 76 409 411 : US : 470 480 504 505 420 420 320 296 1,714 1,701 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During November :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 45 55 40 60 30 35 30 40 145 190 KS : 110 140 115 135 105 100 75 75 405 450 NE : 100 120 165 170 95 100 100 95 460 485 TX : 145 180 130 165 100 110 60 55 435 510 : Oth Sts : 155 190 110 *138 74 75 100 96 439 *499 : US : 555 685 560 *668 404 420 365 361 1,884 *2,134 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Dec 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Dec 2006 : Nov 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Nov -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 31 27 24 77 89 CA : 63 61 60 95 98 CO : 150 145 135 90 93 ID : 41 42 42 102 100 IA : 59 75 69 117 92 KS : 390 355 390 100 110 NE : 350 355 335 96 94 NM : 15 23 13 87 57 OK : 42 50 37 88 74 SD : 32 38 33 103 87 TX : 385 490 420 109 86 WA : 24 27 28 117 104 : Oth Sts: 43 50 59 137 118 : US : 1,625 1,738 1,645 101 95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Dec 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Dec 2006 : Nov 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Nov -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 2 3 1 50 33 CA : 4 2 2 50 100 CO : 5 5 5 100 100 ID : 8 1 2 25 200 IA : 3 1 2 67 200 KS : 30 15 15 50 100 NE : 10 10 10 100 100 NM : 1 2 2 200 100 OK : 4 2 2 50 100 SD : 3 2 2 67 100 TX : 15 10 10 67 100 WA : 1 2 1 100 50 : Oth Sts: 2 2 4 200 200 : US : 88 57 58 66 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed by Class, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Quarter, State, and United States, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Steers & Steer Calves :Heifers & Heifer Calves: Cows and Bulls :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Jan 1, :Oct 1, :Jan 1, :Jan 1, :Oct 1, :Jan 1, :Jan 1, :Oct 1, :Jan 1, : 2007 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AZ : 331 349 365 3 1 3 0 0 0 CA : 495 490 500 55 50 60 0 0 0 CO : 710 575 670 380 360 425 10 5 5 ID : 148 114 127 102 91 98 10 5 10 IA : 350 350 390 169 159 179 1 1 1 KS : 1,360 1,220 1,350 1,155 1,065 1,120 25 25 10 NE : 1,580 1,280 1,550 940 850 970 20 10 10 NM : 82 82 90 54 51 70 0 0 0 OK : 230 220 240 120 105 110 0 0 0 SD : 115 87 111 85 80 90 25 13 29 TX : 1,800 1,740 1,880 1,067 1,097 1,077 3 3 3 WA : 103 80 88 80 73 75 1 1 1 : Oth Sts : 270 245 285 93 88 104 2 2 1 : US : 7,574 6,832 7,646 4,303 4,070 4,381 97 65 70 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 10 years is .2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 12.1 million head by more than .2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed .4 percent. The following table also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 14,000 head, ranging from 0 to 70,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been below the final estimate 4 times, and above the final estimate 1 time. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of U.S. January 1 Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.2 0.4 53.7 14 0 70 1 4 : Placements : 0.5 0.9 16.1 4 0 20 0 2 : Marketings : 0.2 0.3 5.3 1 0 10 1 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch............................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Shawn Clark, Head, Livestock Section.............................(202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs..............................(202) 720-3106 Jim Collom - Dairy Products..............................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices.......................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows..........(202) 720-3278 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter.......................(515) 284-4340 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats & Kids...............(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed.....................(202) 720-3040 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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