Mt An 2-1 (5-06) Cattle On Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released May 19, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Mike Miller at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 9 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on May 1, 2006. The inventory was 9 percent above May 1, 2005 and 11 percent above May 1, 2004. This is the highest May 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.63 million, 2 percent below 2005 but 2 percent above 2004. Net placements were 1.54 million. During April, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 385,000, 600-699 pounds were 270,000, 700-799 pounds were 444,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 530,000. Marketings of fed cattle during April totaled 1.79 million, down slightly from 2005 and 5 percent below 2004. This is the lowest fed cattle marketings for the month of April since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 87,000 during April, 4 percent below 2005 and 10 percent below 2004. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, May 1, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2006 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Apr 1 1/ : 10,763 10,873 11,812 110 109 Placed on Feed During Apr : 1,600 1,660 1,629 102 98 Fed Cattle Marketed During Apr : 1,891 1,801 1,794 95 100 Other Disappearance During Apr 2/ : 97 91 87 90 96 On Feed May 1 1/ : 10,375 10,641 11,560 111 109 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, April 1, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2006 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Mar 1 1/ : 10,987 11,154 12,023 109 108 Placed on Feed During Mar : 1,810 1,750 1,837 101 105 Fed Cattle Marketed During Mar : 1,967 1,963 1,958 100 100 Other Disappearance During Mar 2/ : 67 68 90 134 132 On Feed Apr 1 1/ : 10,763 10,873 11,812 110 109 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : May 1, 2006 : : :------------------------------------------ State : May 1, 2005 : Apr 1, 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Apr -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 330 351 346 105 99 CA : 500 535 530 106 99 CO : 970 1,070 1,060 109 99 ID : 240 250 245 102 98 IA : 455 500 495 109 99 KS : 2,260 2,590 2,530 112 98 NE : 2,190 2,400 2,320 106 97 NM : 114 139 132 116 95 OK : 305 360 340 111 94 SD : 200 210 200 100 95 TX : 2,630 2,940 2,910 111 99 WA : 147 152 152 103 100 : Oth Sts: 300 315 300 100 95 : US : 10,641 11,812 11,560 109 98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Apr 2006 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Apr 2005 : Mar 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Mar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 31 30 27 87 90 CA : 64 59 60 94 102 CO : 120 155 140 117 90 ID : 39 42 31 79 74 IA : 55 55 64 116 116 KS : 375 480 375 100 78 NE : 320 335 320 100 96 NM : 19 21 18 95 86 OK : 52 68 48 92 71 SD : 27 36 28 104 78 TX : 500 485 455 91 94 WA : 19 26 23 121 88 : Oth Sts: 39 45 40 103 89 : US : 1,660 1,837 1,629 98 89 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During April :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 20 40 20 25 35 35 45 40 120 140 KS : 50 60 50 65 120 115 155 135 375 375 NE : 45 60 40 45 105 85 130 130 320 320 TX : 105 120 70 95 170 135 155 105 500 455 : Oth Sts : 120 105 45 40 70 74 110 120 345 339 : US : 340 385 225 270 500 444 595 530 1,660 1,629 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During March :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 15 25 35 30 65 60 50 40 165 155 KS : 50 70 85 80 170 165 140 165 445 480 NE : 34 50 52 50 92 90 122 145 300 335 TX : 85 120 105 120 190 165 100 80 480 485 : Oth Sts : 115 115 43 62 92 85 110 120 360 382 : US : 299 380 320 342 609 565 522 550 1,750 1,837 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Apr 2006 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Apr 2005 : Mar 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Mar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 24 28 23 96 82 CA : 59 68 60 102 88 CO : 150 165 140 93 85 ID : 37 45 34 92 76 IA : 53 73 66 125 90 KS : 425 470 410 96 87 NE : 380 370 390 103 105 NM : 16 23 24 150 104 OK : 70 72 66 94 92 SD : 31 35 35 113 100 TX : 480 540 470 98 87 WA : 30 27 22 73 81 : Oth Sts: 46 42 54 117 129 : US : 1,801 1,958 1,794 100 92 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Apr 2006 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Apr 2005 : Mar 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Mar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 3 2 9 300 450 CA : 5 6 5 100 83 CO : 20 10 10 50 100 ID : 2 2 2 100 100 IA : 2 2 3 150 150 KS : 30 30 25 83 83 NE : 10 15 10 100 67 NM : 2 2 1 50 50 OK : 2 1 2 100 200 SD : 1 1 3 300 300 TX : 10 15 15 150 100 WA : 1 1 1 100 100 : Oth Sts: 3 3 1 33 33 : US : 91 90 87 96 97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 10 years is .1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.6 million head by more than .1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed .2 percent. The following table also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 10,000 head, ranging from 0 to 35,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been below the final estimate 7 times, and above the final estimate 0 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of U.S. May 1 Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.1 0.2 28.6 10 0 35 0 7 : Placements : 0.6 1.1 18.2 6 0 22 1 5 : Marketings : 0.3 0.6 10.1 4 0 12 1 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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