Mt An 2-1 (4-07) Cattle On Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 20, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Mike Miller at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on April 1, 2007. The inventory was 1 percent below April 1, 2006 but 7 percent above April 1, 2005. This is the second highest April 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. The inventory included 7.43 million steers and steer calves, down 4 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 64 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.14 million head, up 4 percent from 2006. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.97 million, 7 percent above 2006 and 12 percent above 2005. Net placements were 1.89 million. During March, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 350,000, 600-699 pounds were 375,000, 700-799 pounds were 640,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 600,000. Marketings of fed cattle during March totaled 1.85 million, down 6 percent from 2006 and 6 percent below 2005. Other disappearance totaled 72,000 during March, 20 percent below 2006 but 6 percent above 2005. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, April 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Mar 1 1/ : 11,154 12,023 11,599 104 96 Placed on Feed During Mar : 1,750 1,837 1,965 112 107 Fed Cattle Marketed During Mar : 1,963 1,958 1,848 94 94 Other Disappearance During Mar 2/ : 68 90 72 106 80 On Feed Apr 1 1/ : 10,873 11,812 11,644 107 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, March 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Feb 1 1/ : 11,342 12,110 11,726 103 97 Placed on Feed During Feb : 1,523 1,588 1,659 109 104 Fed Cattle Marketed During Feb : 1,634 1,602 1,711 105 107 Other Disappearance During Feb 2/ : 77 73 75 97 103 On Feed Mar 1 1/ : 11,154 12,023 11,599 104 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed by Class, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, April 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ----- Percent : Class on Feed Apr 1 : Steers and Steer Calves : 6,992 7,740 7,433 106 96 Heifers and Heifer Calves : 3,803 3,997 4,142 109 104 Cows and Bulls : 78 75 69 88 92 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Apr 1, 2007 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Apr 1, 2006 : Mar 1, 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Mar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 351 329 340 97 103 CA : 535 530 530 99 100 CO : 1,070 1,010 1,020 95 101 ID : 250 250 245 98 98 IA : 500 530 530 106 100 KS : 2,590 2,420 2,480 96 102 NE : 2,400 2,510 2,480 103 99 NM : 139 130 131 94 101 OK : 360 350 350 97 100 SD : 210 230 230 110 100 TX : 2,940 2,790 2,800 95 100 WA : 152 170 163 107 96 : Oth Sts: 315 350 345 110 99 : US : 11,812 11,599 11,644 99 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Mar 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Mar 2006 : Feb 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Feb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 30 24 46 153 192 CA : 59 60 68 115 113 CO : 155 140 165 106 118 ID : 42 39 38 90 97 IA : 55 64 72 131 113 KS : 480 395 510 106 129 NE : 335 360 350 104 97 NM : 21 14 19 90 136 OK : 68 59 68 100 115 SD : 36 43 40 111 93 TX : 485 390 520 107 133 WA : 26 25 26 100 104 : Oth Sts: 45 46 43 96 93 : US : 1,837 1,659 1,965 107 118 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During March :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 25 20 30 30 60 50 40 65 155 165 KS : 70 70 80 115 165 170 165 155 480 510 NE : 50 40 50 50 90 110 145 150 335 350 TX : 120 90 120 120 165 200 80 110 485 520 : Oth Sts : 115 130 62 60 85 110 120 120 382 420 : US : 380 350 342 375 565 640 550 600 1,837 1,965 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During February :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 20 15 30 30 50 45 40 50 140 140 KS : 60 50 85 85 145 145 120 115 410 395 NE : 55 40 60 60 105 110 110 150 330 360 TX : 110 100 70 100 120 120 60 70 360 390 : Oth Sts : 110 120 55 59 85 85 98 110 348 374 : US : 355 325 300 334 505 505 428 495 1,588 1,659 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Mar 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Mar 2006 : Feb 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Feb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 28 28 33 118 118 CA : 68 67 65 96 97 CO : 165 160 145 88 91 ID : 45 43 42 93 98 IA : 73 63 70 96 111 KS : 470 380 430 91 113 NE : 370 380 370 100 97 NM : 23 18 17 74 94 OK : 72 58 67 93 116 SD : 35 41 37 106 90 TX : 540 385 495 92 129 WA : 27 31 32 119 103 : Oth Sts: 42 57 45 107 79 : US : 1,958 1,711 1,848 94 108 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Mar 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Mar 2006 : Feb 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Feb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 2 1 2 100 200 CA : 6 3 3 50 100 CO : 10 10 10 100 100 ID : 2 1 1 50 100 IA : 2 1 2 100 200 KS : 30 25 20 67 80 NE : 15 10 10 67 100 NM : 2 1 1 50 100 OK : 1 1 1 100 100 SD : 1 2 3 300 150 TX : 15 15 15 100 100 WA : 1 1 1 100 100 : Oth Sts: 3 4 3 100 75 : US : 90 75 72 80 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed by Class, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Quarter, State, and United States, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Steers & Steer Calves :Heifers & Heifer Calves: Cows and Bulls :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Apr 1, :Jan 1, :Apr 1, :Apr 1, :Jan 1, :Apr 1, :Apr 1, :Jan 1, :Apr 1, : 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AZ : 342 331 339 9 3 1 0 0 0 CA : 500 495 485 35 55 45 0 0 0 CO : 740 710 660 320 380 355 10 10 5 ID : 158 148 146 90 102 96 2 10 3 IA : 355 350 350 144 169 179 1 1 1 KS : 1,460 1,360 1,340 1,110 1,155 1,115 20 25 25 NE : 1,480 1,580 1,520 900 940 950 20 20 10 NM : 77 82 81 62 54 50 0 0 0 OK : 245 230 235 115 120 115 0 0 0 SD : 115 115 130 79 85 82 16 25 18 TX : 1,940 1,800 1,780 999 1,067 1,017 1 3 3 WA : 88 103 87 62 80 75 2 1 1 : Oth Sts : 240 270 280 72 93 62 3 2 3 : US : 7,740 7,574 7,433 3,997 4,303 4,142 75 97 69 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 10 years is .1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.6 million head by more than .1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed .1 percent. The following table also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 7,000 head, ranging from 0 to 15,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been below the final estimate 7 times, and above the final estimate 0 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of U.S. April 1 Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.1 0.1 17.3 7 0 15 0 7 : Placements : 0.4 0.8 16.2 7 0 15 3 5 : Marketings : 0.3 0.5 9.7 4 0 10 2 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. 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