Mt An 2-1 (8-07) Cattle On Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released August 17, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Mike Miller at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 5 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.3 million head on August 1, 2007. The inventory was 5 percent below August 1, 2006 but 2 percent above August 1, 2005. Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.62 million, 17 percent below 2006 and 3 percent below 2005. Net placements were 1.56 million. This is the lowest placements for the month of July since the series began in 1996. During July, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 360,000, 600-699 pounds were 312,000, 700-799 pounds were 445,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 505,000. Marketings of fed cattle during July totaled 2.0 million, 3 percent above 2006 and 4 percent above 2005. Other disappearance totaled 61,000 during July, 5 percent above 2006 but unchanged from 2005. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, August 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Jul 1 1/ : 10,394 10,872 10,737 103 99 Placed on Feed During Jul : 1,678 1,958 1,622 97 83 Fed Cattle Marketed During Jul : 1,918 1,950 1,999 104 103 Other Disappearance During Jul 2/ : 61 58 61 100 105 On Feed Aug 1 1/ : 10,093 10,822 10,299 102 95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, July 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Jun 1 1/ : 10,771 11,187 11,272 105 101 Placed on Feed During Jun : 1,769 1,946 1,657 94 85 Fed Cattle Marketed During Jun : 2,083 2,198 2,140 103 97 Other Disappearance During Jun 2/ : 63 63 52 83 83 On Feed Jul 1 1/ : 10,394 10,872 10,737 103 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Aug 1, 2007 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Aug 1, 2006 : Jul 1, 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Jul -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent --- : AZ : 339 343 341 101 99 CA : 515 545 540 105 99 CO : 940 940 870 93 93 ID : 225 220 205 91 93 IA : 445 510 500 112 98 KS : 2,360 2,140 2,100 89 98 NE : 1,950 2,050 1,910 98 93 NM : 144 132 129 90 98 OK : 345 325 305 88 94 SD : 165 197 175 106 89 TX : 2,970 2,870 2,780 94 97 WA : 154 150 144 94 96 : Oth Sts: 270 315 300 111 95 : US : 10,822 10,737 10,299 95 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Jul 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Jul 2006 : Jun 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Jun -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 31 39 32 103 82 CA : 55 53 51 93 96 CO : 145 120 115 79 96 ID : 36 37 35 97 95 IA : 60 52 64 107 123 KS : 590 375 430 73 115 NE : 380 330 350 92 106 NM : 23 22 12 52 55 OK : 58 52 48 83 92 SD : 24 24 22 92 92 TX : 480 485 390 81 80 WA : 33 31 27 82 87 : Oth Sts: 43 37 46 107 124 : US : 1,958 1,657 1,622 83 98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During July :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 40 15 30 20 40 35 35 45 145 115 KS : 140 75 145 90 165 140 140 125 590 430 NE : 60 55 65 60 100 90 155 145 380 350 TX : 220 110 110 100 105 115 45 65 480 390 : Oth Sts : 110 105 53 42 80 65 120 125 363 337 : US : 570 360 403 312 490 445 495 505 1,958 1,622 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During June :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 50 15 35 20 55 35 30 50 170 120 KS : 115 80 105 70 105 125 120 100 445 375 NE : 80 75 60 55 90 70 140 130 370 330 TX : 190 110 170 135 115 160 55 80 530 485 : Oth Sts : 130 125 60 45 91 67 150 110 431 347 : US : 565 405 430 325 456 457 495 470 1,946 1,657 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Jul 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Jul 2006 : Jun 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Jun -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 34 35 33 97 94 CA : 67 60 54 81 90 CO : 175 190 175 100 92 ID : 40 46 49 123 107 IA : 73 61 73 100 120 KS : 495 515 450 91 87 NE : 410 560 480 117 86 NM : 18 17 14 78 82 OK : 52 66 67 129 102 SD : 38 39 42 111 108 TX : 480 475 470 98 99 WA : 26 30 32 123 107 : Oth Sts: 42 46 60 143 130 : US : 1,950 2,140 1,999 103 93 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Jul 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Jul 2006 : Jun 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Jun -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 2 1 1 50 100 CA : 3 3 2 67 67 CO : 10 10 10 100 100 ID : 1 1 1 100 100 IA : 2 1 1 50 100 KS : 15 10 20 133 200 NE : 10 10 10 100 100 NM : 1 1 1 100 100 OK : 1 1 1 100 100 SD : 1 3 2 200 67 TX : 10 10 10 100 100 WA : 1 0 1 100 : Oth Sts: 1 1 1 100 100 : US : 58 52 61 105 117 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 10 years is .1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.3 million head by more than .1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed .2 percent. The following table also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 8,000 head, ranging from 0 to 20,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been below the final estimate 6 times, and above the final estimate 1 time. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of U.S. August 1 Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.1 0.2 23.8 8 0 20 1 6 : Placements : 0.3 0.5 9.7 3 0 11 3 2 : Marketings : 0.3 0.6 11.1 3 0 20 2 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch(202) 720-3570 Shawn Clark, Head, Livestock Section (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs(202) 720-3106 Vacant - Dairy Products(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats & Kids(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed(202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter(515) 284-4340 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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USDA Data Users' Meeting October 29, 2007 Crowne Plaza Chicago O'Hare Rosemont, Illinois (847) 671-6350 The USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing an open forum for data users. The purpose will be to provide updates on pending changes in the various statistical and information programs and seek comments and input from data users. Other USDA agencies to be represented will include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board. The Foreign Trade Division from the Census Bureau will also be included in the meeting. For registration details or additional information for the Data Users' Meeting, see the NASS homepage at www.nass.usda.gov/forum/ or contact Marjorie Taylor (NASS) at (202) 690-8141 or at marjorie_taylor@nass.usda.gov. This Data Users' Meeting precedes an Industry Outlook meeting that will be held at the same location on October 30, 2007. The Outlook meeting brings together analysts from various commodity sectors to discuss the outlook situation. For registration details or additional information for the Industry Outlook Meeting see the Livestock and Marketing Information Center (LMIC) homepage at www.lmic.info or contact Jim Robb at (720) 544-2941 or at robb@lmic.info.