Mt An 2-1 (6-07) Cattle On Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released June 22, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Mike Miller at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.3 million head on June 1, 2007. The inventory was 1 percent above June 1, 2006 and 5 percent above June 1, 2005. This is highest June 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in feedlots during May totaled 2.16 million, 13 percent above 2006 but 3 percent below 2005. Net placements were 2.06 million. During May, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 420,000, 600-699 pounds were 374,000, 700-799 pounds were 645,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 720,000. Marketings of fed cattle during May totaled 2.09 million, 3 percent below 2006 but 4 percent above 2005. Other disappearance totaled 99,000 during May, 14 percent below 2006 but 3 percent above 2005. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, June 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed May 1 1/ : 10,641 11,559 11,297 106 98 Placed on Feed During May : 2,223 1,903 2,159 97 113 Fed Cattle Marketed During May : 1,997 2,160 2,085 104 97 Other Disappearance During May 2/ : 96 115 99 103 86 On Feed Jun 1 1/ : 10,771 11,187 11,272 105 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, May 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Apr 1 1/ : 10,873 11,812 11,644 107 99 Placed on Feed During Apr : 1,660 1,619 1,573 95 97 Fed Cattle Marketed During Apr : 1,801 1,785 1,821 101 102 Other Disappearance During Apr 2/ : 91 87 99 109 114 On Feed May 1 1/ : 10,641 11,559 11,297 106 98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Jun 1, 2007 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Jun 1, 2006 : May 1, 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : May -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 341 340 340 100 100 CA : 535 550 555 104 101 CO : 1,030 1,020 1,020 99 100 ID : 230 235 230 100 98 IA : 470 530 520 111 98 KS : 2,400 2,350 2,290 95 97 NE : 2,120 2,420 2,290 108 95 NM : 135 118 128 95 108 OK : 345 335 340 99 101 SD : 195 230 215 110 93 TX : 2,960 2,680 2,870 97 107 WA : 141 154 149 106 97 : Oth Sts: 285 335 325 114 97 : US : 11,187 11,297 11,272 101 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During May 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : May 2006 : Apr 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Apr -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 29 31 36 124 116 CA : 80 85 73 91 86 CO : 165 155 175 106 113 ID : 37 35 43 116 123 IA : 51 61 54 106 89 KS : 415 355 465 112 131 NE : 340 290 390 115 134 NM : 25 12 34 136 283 OK : 76 54 71 93 131 SD : 33 36 34 103 94 TX : 590 380 710 120 187 WA : 20 22 29 145 132 : Oth Sts: 42 57 45 107 79 : US : 1,903 1,573 2,159 113 137 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During May :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 35 25 40 30 45 50 45 70 165 175 KS : 65 80 85 85 115 135 150 165 415 465 NE : 65 55 50 60 80 110 145 165 340 390 TX : 155 130 135 145 170 260 130 175 590 710 : Oth Sts : 120 130 60 54 88 90 125 145 393 419 : US : 440 420 370 374 498 645 595 720 1,903 2,159 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During April :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 40 30 20 30 35 40 35 55 130 155 KS : 60 60 65 65 115 110 135 120 375 355 NE : 60 50 45 40 85 80 130 120 320 290 TX : 120 105 95 75 135 110 105 90 455 380 : Oth Sts : 105 130 40 53 74 90 120 120 339 393 : US : 385 375 265 263 444 430 525 505 1,619 1,573 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During May 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : May 2006 : Apr 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Apr -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 27 30 32 119 107 CA : 70 61 65 93 107 CO : 175 135 155 89 115 ID : 47 40 42 89 105 IA : 74 59 63 85 107 KS : 520 445 500 96 112 NE : 520 340 500 96 147 NM : 21 24 23 110 96 OK : 70 68 65 93 96 SD : 34 34 45 132 132 TX : 520 490 510 98 104 WA : 30 30 33 110 110 : Oth Sts: 52 65 52 100 80 : US : 2,160 1,821 2,085 97 114 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During May 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : May 2006 : Apr 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Apr -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 6 1 4 67 400 CA : 5 4 3 60 75 CO : 20 20 20 100 100 ID : 5 5 6 120 120 IA : 2 2 1 50 50 KS : 25 40 25 100 63 NE : 20 10 20 100 200 NM : 1 1 1 100 100 OK : 1 1 1 100 100 SD : 4 2 4 100 200 TX : 20 10 10 50 100 WA : 1 1 1 100 100 : Oth Sts: 5 2 3 60 150 : US : 115 99 99 86 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 10 years is .2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.3 million head by more than .2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed .4 percent. The following table also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 14,000 head, ranging from 0 to 50,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been below the final estimate 8 times, and above the final estimate 0 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of U.S. June 1 Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.2 0.4 40.1 14 0 50 0 8 : Placements : 0.8 1.4 31.2 11 0 40 2 7 : Marketings : 0.6 1.1 22.8 8 0 33 4 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section William Weaver, Head, Livestock Section (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs(202) 720-3106 Shawn Clark - Dairy Products(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed(202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter(515) 284-4340 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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