Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released November 16, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Down 5 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.3 million head on November 1, 2012. The inventory was 5 percent below November 1, 2011. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.18 million, 13 percent below 2011. This is the lowest cattle placements for the month of October since the series began in 1996. Net placements were 2.10 million head. During October, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 680,000, 600-699 pounds were 505,000, 700-799 pounds were 435,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 560,000. Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.84 million, 3 percent above 2011. Other disappearance totaled 78,000 during October, 20 percent below 2011. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: November 1, 2011 and 2012 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2011 : 2012 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed October 1 ......................: 11,282 10,989 97 Placed on feed during October ..........: 2,492 2,180 87 Fed cattle marketed during October .....: 1,787 1,837 103 Other disappearance during October .....: 98 78 80 On feed November 1 .....................: 11,889 11,254 95 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: October 1, 2011 and 2012 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2011 : 2012 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed September 1 ....................: 10,700 10,647 100 Placed on feed during September ........: 2,469 2,004 81 Fed cattle marketed during September ...: 1,813 1,598 88 Other disappearance during September ...: 74 64 86 On feed October 1 ......................: 11,282 10,989 97 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : November 1, 2012 : : :----------------------------------------- State :November 1, 2011 : October 1, 2012 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 head ------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ........: 292 272 265 91 97 California .....: 490 475 480 98 101 Colorado .......: 1,140 1,000 1,030 90 103 Idaho ..........: 225 230 240 107 104 Iowa ...........: 570 590 590 104 100 Kansas .........: 2,400 2,230 2,220 93 100 Nebraska .......: 2,470 2,330 2,480 100 106 Oklahoma .......: 390 335 345 88 103 South Dakota ...: 240 195 220 92 113 Texas ..........: 3,000 2,680 2,670 89 100 Washington .....: 226 213 248 110 116 : Other States ...: 446 439 466 104 106 : United States ..: 11,889 10,989 11,254 95 102 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During October 2012 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : October 2011 :September 2012: : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 32 20 19 59 95 California .......: 54 50 62 115 124 Colorado .........: 230 225 195 85 87 Idaho ............: 55 61 55 100 90 Iowa .............: 137 89 146 107 164 Kansas ...........: 440 375 380 86 101 Nebraska .........: 665 470 590 89 126 Oklahoma .........: 86 57 65 76 114 South Dakota .....: 75 50 71 95 142 Texas ............: 560 480 450 80 94 Washington .......: 59 46 74 125 161 : Other States .....: 99 81 73 74 90 : United States ....: 2,492 2,004 2,180 87 109 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : During October :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 60 65 50 45 50 35 70 50 230 195 Kansas .......: 115 80 120 95 115 120 90 85 440 380 Nebraska .....: 185 190 180 130 110 80 190 190 665 590 Texas ........: 250 165 125 125 115 100 70 60 560 450 : Other States .: 230 180 115 110 97 100 155 175 597 565 : United States : 840 680 590 505 487 435 575 560 2,492 2,180 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During September :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 40 40 25 20 60 55 150 110 275 225 Kansas .......: 120 80 110 85 140 105 130 105 500 375 Nebraska .....: 100 90 80 60 110 100 270 220 560 470 Texas ........: 280 185 125 130 85 100 70 65 560 480 : Other States .: 145 120 75 60 109 84 245 190 574 454 : United States : 685 515 415 355 504 444 865 690 2,469 2,004 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During October 2012 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : October 2011 :September 2012: : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 19 18 25 132 139 California .......: 49 52 54 110 104 Colorado .........: 155 150 160 103 107 Idaho ............: 48 35 44 92 126 Iowa .............: 115 87 143 124 164 Kansas ...........: 340 310 365 107 118 Nebraska .........: 390 370 425 109 115 Oklahoma .........: 63 45 54 86 120 South Dakota .....: 39 39 45 115 115 Texas ............: 465 400 440 95 110 Washington .......: 40 40 38 95 95 : Other States .....: 64 52 44 69 85 : United States ....: 1,787 1,598 1,837 103 115 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During October 2012 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : October 2011 :September 2012: : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 1 1 100 100 California .......: 5 3 3 60 100 Colorado .........: 5 5 5 100 100 Idaho ............: 2 1 1 50 100 Iowa .............: 2 2 3 150 150 Kansas ...........: 20 15 25 125 167 Nebraska .........: 15 10 15 100 150 Oklahoma .........: 3 2 1 33 50 South Dakota .....: 1 1 1 100 100 Texas ............: 35 20 20 57 100 Washington .......: 1 1 1 100 100 : Other States .....: 8 3 2 25 67 : United States ....: 98 64 78 80 122 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 11 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 5 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 5 States include Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.3 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 13,000 head, ranging from 0 to 47,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 13 times and has been below the latest estimate 3 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [[Based on data for the past 24 months]] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ---- : Number on feed ...............: 0.2 0.3 13 0 47 3 13 : Placements ...................: 0.3 0.5 3 0 18 5 9 : Marketings ...................: 0.3 0.5 3 0 20 7 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Sheep and Goats ........ (202) 720-4751 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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