Mt An 2-1 (1-09) Cattle on Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 23, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Jason Hardegree at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 7 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.2 million head on January 1, 2009. The inventory was 7 percent below January 1, 2008 and 6 percent below January 1, 2007. The inventory included 7.07 million steers and steer calves, down 8 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 63 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.10 million head, down 6 percent from 2008. Placements in feedlots during December totaled 1.65 million, 3 percent below 2007 and 4 percent below 2006. Net placements were 1.57 million head. During December, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 425,000, 600-699 pounds were 490,000, 700-799 pounds were 407,000 and 800 pounds and greater were 325,000. Marketings of fed cattle during December totaled 1.68 million, 2 percent above 2007 and 4 percent above 2006. Other disappearance totaled 76,000 during December, 31 percent above 2007 but 14 percent below 2006. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, January 1, 2007-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2009 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Dec 1 1/ 2/ : 11,973 12,099 *11,346 95 94 Placed on Feed During Dec 2/ : 1,714 1,701 1,647 96 97 Fed Cattle Marketed During Dec 2/ : 1,625 1,645 1,683 104 102 Other Disappearance During Dec 2/ 3/ : 88 58 76 86 131 On Feed Jan 1 1/ : 11,974 12,097 11,234 94 93 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ December preceding year. 3/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, December 1, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2008 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Nov 1 1/ : 11,969 11,769 10,972 92 93 Placed on Feed During Nov : 1,884 2,125 *2,016 107 95 Fed Cattle Marketed During Nov : 1,797 1,738 1,575 88 91 Other Disappearance During Nov 2/ : 83 57 67 81 118 On Feed Dec 1 1/ : 11,973 12,099 *11,346 95 94 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed by Class, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, January 1, 2007-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2009 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ----- Percent : Class on Feed Jan 1 : Steers and Steer Calves : 7,574 7,646 7,071 93 92 Heifers and Heifer Calves : 4,303 4,381 4,100 95 94 Cows and Bulls : 97 70 63 65 90 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Jan 1, 2009 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Jan 1, 2008 : Dec 1, 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2008 : Dec -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 368 359 358 97 100 CA : 560 495 490 88 99 CO : 1,100 1,010 1,000 91 99 ID : 235 225 220 94 98 IA : 570 500 500 88 100 KS : 2,480 2,310 2,270 92 98 NE : 2,530 2,380 2,370 94 100 NM : 160 *168 164 103 98 OK : 350 335 335 96 100 SD : 230 220 220 96 100 TX : 2,960 2,810 2,790 94 99 WA : 164 169 157 96 93 : Oth Sts: 390 365 360 92 99 : US : 12,097 *11,346 11,234 93 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Dec 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Dec 2007 : Nov 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Nov -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 26 26 29 112 112 CA : 67 48 59 88 123 CO : 170 185 150 88 81 ID : 39 65 36 92 55 IA : 71 92 66 93 72 KS : 385 405 380 99 94 NE : 355 440 345 97 78 NM : 26 *21 16 62 76 OK : 44 69 49 111 71 SD : 50 57 38 76 67 TX : 380 510 405 107 79 WA : 25 36 28 112 78 : Oth Sts: 63 62 46 73 74 : US : 1,701 *2,016 1,647 97 82 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During December :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 30 25 55 45 50 40 35 40 170 150 KS : 80 70 120 120 120 120 65 70 385 380 NE : 65 55 100 100 100 100 90 90 355 345 TX : 145 140 125 135 80 90 30 40 380 405 : Oth Sts : 160 135 105 90 70 57 76 85 411 367 : US : 480 425 505 490 420 407 296 325 1,701 1,647 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During November :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 55 50 60 55 35 40 40 40 190 185 KS : 140 85 135 125 100 120 75 75 450 405 NE : 120 110 170 160 100 80 95 90 485 440 TX : 180 145 165 180 110 130 55 55 510 510 : Oth Sts : 190 175 130 110 75 *81 95 110 490 *476 : US : 685 565 660 630 420 *451 360 370 2,125 *2,016 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Dec 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Dec 2007 : Nov 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Nov -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 24 28 29 121 104 CA : 60 50 60 100 120 CO : 135 130 155 115 119 ID : 42 49 39 93 80 IA : 69 75 64 93 85 KS : 390 310 405 104 131 NE : 335 355 340 101 96 NM : 13 23 18 138 78 OK : 37 52 46 124 88 SD : 33 35 37 112 106 TX : 420 395 405 96 103 WA : 28 29 38 136 131 : Oth Sts: 59 44 47 80 107 : US : 1,645 1,575 1,683 102 107 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Dec 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Dec 2007 : Nov 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Nov -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 1 1 1 100 100 CA : 2 3 4 200 133 CO : 5 5 5 100 100 ID : 2 1 2 100 200 IA : 2 2 2 100 100 KS : 15 15 15 100 100 NE : 10 15 15 150 100 NM : 2 2 2 100 100 OK : 2 2 3 150 150 SD : 2 2 1 50 50 TX : 10 15 20 200 133 WA : 1 1 2 200 200 : Oth Sts: 4 3 4 100 133 : US : 58 67 76 131 113 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed by Class, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Quarter, State, and United States, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Steers & Steer Calves :Heifers & Heifer Calves: Cows and Bulls :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Jan 1, :Oct 1, :Jan 1, :Jan 1, :Oct 1, :Jan 1, :Jan 1, :Oct 1, :Jan 1, : 2008 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AZ : 365 359 357 3 1 1 0 0 0 CA : 500 455 440 60 50 50 0 0 0 CO : 670 515 610 425 350 385 5 5 5 ID : 127 101 118 98 89 97 10 5 5 IA : 390 345 345 179 130 155 1 0 0 KS : 1,350 1,225 1,210 1,120 920 1,045 10 15 15 NE : 1,550 1,200 1,460 970 900 900 10 10 10 NM : 90 77 89 70 96 75 0 0 0 OK : 240 225 215 110 90 120 0 0 0 SD : 111 82 107 90 78 92 29 15 21 TX : 1,880 1,590 1,770 1,077 998 1,018 3 2 2 WA : 88 84 95 75 72 61 1 1 1 : Oth Sts : 285 255 255 104 74 101 1 1 4 : US : 7,646 6,513 7,071 4,381 3,848 4,100 70 54 63 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is less than 0.1 percent (0.03). This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.2 million head by more than 0.03 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. The following table also shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 1,000 head, ranging from 0 to 18,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has not been above the final estimate, but has been below the final estimate 4 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Months Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.0 0.1 11.2 1 0 18 0 4 : Placements : 0.2 0.3 4.9 2 0 10 3 6 : Marketings : 0.2 0.3 5.0 1 0 10 3 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch.............................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section.............................(202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products...............................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices........................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed..................(202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter...................(515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats..........................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows...............(202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs...............................(202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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