Mt An 2-1 (12-09) Cattle on Feed Washington, D.C. Released December 18, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Jason Hardegree at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.3 million head on December 1, 2009. The inventory was 1 percent below December 1, 2008. Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.85 million, 8 percent below 2008. For the month of November, placements were the second lowest since the series began in 1996. Net placements were 1.78 million head. During November, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 510,000, 600-699 pounds were 565,000, 700-799 pounds were 395,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 375,000. Marketings of fed cattle during November totaled 1.63 million, 4 percent above 2008. For the month of November, fed cattle marketings were the third lowest since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 66,000 during November, 1 percent below 2008. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, December 1, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2008 : 2009 :Previous Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head ---- Percent : On Feed Nov 1 : 10,972 11,134 101 Placed on Feed During Nov : 2,016 1,845 92 Fed Cattle Marketed During Nov : 1,575 1,631 104 Other Disappearance During Nov : 67 66 99 On Feed Dec 1 : 11,346 11,282 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, November 1, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2008 : 2009 :Previous Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head ---- Percent : On Feed Oct 1 : 10,415 10,474 101 Placed on Feed During Oct : 2,438 2,474 101 Fed Cattle Marketed During Oct : 1,814 1,755 97 Other Disappearance During Oct : 67 59 88 On Feed Nov 1 : 10,972 11,134 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Dec 1, 2009 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Dec 1, 2008 : Nov 1, 2009 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :Previous Year :Previous Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- 1,000 Head ----------- ----- Percent ---- : AZ : 359 279 282 79 101 CA : 495 470 465 94 99 CO : 1,010 1,040 1,060 105 102 ID : 225 210 215 96 102 IA : 500 540 560 112 104 KS : 2,310 2,330 2,330 101 100 NE : 2,380 2,400 2,410 101 100 NM : 168 D D D D OK : 335 375 375 112 100 SD : 220 205 235 107 115 TX : 2,810 2,730 2,760 98 101 WA : 169 155 172 102 111 : Oth Sts1/: 365 400 418 X 105 : US : 11,346 11,134 11,282 99 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. (X) Comparison to 2008 is not applicable. 1/ Includes unpublished New Mexico totals for 2009. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Nov 2009 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Nov 2008 : Oct 2009 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :Previous Year :Previous Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ----- Percent ---- : AZ : 26 29 26 100 90 CA : 48 57 50 104 88 CO : 185 245 165 89 67 ID : 65 50 45 69 90 IA : 92 123 108 117 88 KS : 405 465 355 88 76 NE : 440 620 400 91 65 NM : 21 D D D D OK : 69 83 57 83 69 SD : 57 65 67 118 103 TX : 510 610 455 89 75 WA : 36 38 47 131 124 : Oth Sts1/: 62 89 70 X 79 : US : 2,016 2,474 1,845 92 75 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. (X) Comparison to 2008 is not applicable. 1/ Includes unpublished New Mexico totals for 2009. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During November :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 50 40 55 50 40 35 40 40 185 165 KS : 85 70 125 105 120 110 75 70 405 355 NE : 110 80 160 140 80 80 90 100 440 400 TX : 145 160 180 140 130 100 55 55 510 455 : Oth Sts : 175 160 110 130 81 70 110 110 476 470 : US : 565 510 630 565 451 395 370 375 2,016 1,845 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During October :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 50 50 70 45 45 60 80 90 245 245 KS : 100 85 120 120 125 150 105 110 450 465 NE : 160 160 160 175 100 95 170 190 590 620 TX : 195 150 160 180 190 180 85 100 630 610 : Oth Sts : 195 170 105 125 83 94 140 145 523 534 : US : 700 615 615 645 543 579 580 635 2,438 2,474 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Nov 2009 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Nov 2008 : Oct 2009 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :Previous Year :Previous Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ----- Percent ---- : AZ : 28 24 22 79 92 CA : 50 50 53 106 106 CO : 130 160 140 108 88 ID : 49 44 39 80 89 IA : 75 100 85 113 85 KS : 310 340 340 110 100 NE : 355 380 380 107 100 NM : 23 D D D D OK : 52 60 53 102 88 SD : 35 54 35 100 65 TX : 395 465 405 103 87 WA : 29 29 29 100 100 : Oth Sts1/: 44 49 50 X 102 : US : 1,575 1,755 1,631 104 93 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. (X) Comparison to 2008 is not applicable. 1/ Includes unpublished New Mexico totals for 2009. Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Nov 2009 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Nov 2008 : Oct 2009 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :Previous Year :Previous Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------- 1,000 Head --------- ----- Percent ---- : AZ : 1 1 1 100 100 CA : 3 2 2 67 100 CO : 5 5 5 100 100 ID : 1 1 1 100 100 IA : 2 3 3 150 100 KS : 15 15 15 100 100 NE : 15 10 10 67 100 NM : 2 D D D D OK : 2 3 4 200 133 SD : 2 1 2 100 200 TX : 15 15 20 133 133 WA : 1 1 1 100 100 : Oth Sts1/: 3 2 2 X 100 : US : 67 59 66 99 112 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. (X) Comparison to 2008 is not applicable. 1/ Includes unpublished New Mexico totals for 2009. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is less than 0.1 percent (0.04). This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.3 million head by more than 0.04 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. The following table also shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 2,000 head, ranging from 0 to 18,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the final estimate 3 times and has been below the final estimate 4 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Months Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.0 0.1 11.3 2 0 18 3 4 : Placements : 0.1 0.3 5.5 1 0 9 1 6 : Marketings : 0.2 0.3 4.9 2 0 7 3 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch...........................................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section...........................................(202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products.............................................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices......................................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed................................(202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter.................................(515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats........................................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows.............................(202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs.............................................(202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge. 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