Mt An 2-1 (3-08) Cattle On Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 20, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Mike Miller at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.9 million head on March 1, 2008. The inventory was 2 percent above March 1, 2007 but 1 percent below March 1, 2006. This is the second highest March 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.72 million, 4 percent above 2007 and 9 percent above 2006. Net placements were 1.66 million head. During February, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 330,000, 600-699 pounds were 385,000, 700-799 pounds were 533,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 475,000. Marketings of fed cattle during February totaled 1.78 million, 4 percent above 2007 and 11 percent above 2006. Other disappearance totaled 60,000 during February, 20 percent below 2007 and 18 percent below 2006. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, March 1, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2008 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Feb 1 1/ : 12,110 11,726 11,966 99 102 Placed on Feed During Feb : 1,588 1,659 1,723 109 104 Fed Cattle Marketed During Feb : 1,602 1,711 1,776 111 104 Other Disappearance During Feb 2/ : 73 75 60 82 80 On Feed Mar 1 : 12,023 11,599 11,853 99 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, February 1, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2008 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Jan 1 1/ : 11,804 11,974 12,097 102 101 Placed on Feed During Jan : 2,199 1,690 1,787 81 106 Fed Cattle Marketed During Jan : 1,810 1,841 1,858 103 101 Other Disappearance During Jan 2/ : 83 97 60 72 62 On Feed Feb 1 1/ : 12,110 11,726 11,966 99 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Mar 1, 2008 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Mar 1, 2007 : Feb 1, 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Feb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 329 373 377 115 101 CA : 530 555 545 103 98 CO : 1,010 1,090 1,050 104 96 ID : 250 235 235 94 100 IA : 530 570 560 106 98 KS : 2,420 2,430 2,410 100 99 NE : 2,510 2,510 2,490 99 99 NM : 130 160 160 123 100 OK : 350 355 350 100 99 SD : 230 230 235 102 102 TX : 2,790 2,930 2,920 105 100 WA : 170 153 151 89 99 : Oth Sts: 350 375 370 106 99 : US : 11,599 11,966 11,853 102 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Feb 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Feb 2007 : Jan 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Jan -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 24 35 36 150 103 CA : 60 76 60 100 79 CO : 140 180 155 111 86 ID : 39 43 39 100 91 IA : 64 72 62 97 86 KS : 395 405 390 99 96 NE : 360 380 350 97 92 NM : 14 16 15 107 94 OK : 59 54 45 76 83 SD : 43 45 47 109 104 TX : 390 400 440 113 110 WA : 25 27 30 120 111 : Oth Sts: 46 54 54 117 100 : US : 1,659 1,787 1,723 104 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During February :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 15 10 30 35 45 50 50 60 140 155 KS : 50 40 85 85 145 160 115 105 395 390 NE : 40 40 60 70 110 110 150 130 360 350 TX : 100 120 100 125 120 125 70 70 390 440 : Oth Sts : 120 120 59 70 85 88 110 110 374 388 : US : 325 330 334 385 505 533 495 475 1,659 1,723 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During January :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 15 20 35 45 55 55 50 60 155 180 KS : 50 55 110 120 125 140 80 90 365 405 NE : 45 50 85 90 150 125 140 115 420 380 TX : 85 135 85 125 120 110 50 30 340 400 : Oth Sts : 125 140 75 87 95 95 115 100 410 422 : US : 320 400 390 467 545 525 435 395 1,690 1,787 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Feb 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Feb 2007 : Jan 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Jan -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 28 29 30 107 103 CA : 67 72 63 94 88 CO : 160 185 190 119 103 ID : 43 42 38 88 90 IA : 63 69 69 110 100 KS : 380 445 400 105 90 NE : 380 390 360 95 92 NM : 18 15 14 78 93 OK : 58 47 48 83 102 SD : 41 43 40 98 93 TX : 385 420 440 114 105 WA : 31 36 30 97 83 : Oth Sts: 57 65 54 95 83 : US : 1,711 1,858 1,776 104 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Feb 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Feb 2007 : Jan 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Jan -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 1 1 2 200 200 CA : 3 9 7 233 78 CO : 10 5 5 50 100 ID : 1 1 1 100 100 IA : 1 3 3 300 100 KS : 25 10 10 40 100 NE : 10 10 10 100 100 NM : 1 1 1 100 100 OK : 1 2 2 200 100 SD : 2 2 2 100 100 TX : 15 10 10 67 100 WA : 1 2 2 200 100 : Oth Sts: 4 4 5 125 125 : US : 75 60 60 80 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 10 years is .1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.9 million head by more than .1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed .2 percent. The following table also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 7,000 head, ranging from 0 to 25,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been below the final estimate 5 times, and above the final estimate 0 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of U.S. March 1 Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.1 0.2 23.1 7 0 25 0 5 : Placements : 1.0 1.9 32.2 10 0 42 2 4 : Marketings : 0.8 1.4 24.6 8 0 40 1 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch............................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section............................(202) 690-2424 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs..............................(202) 720-3106 Jim Collom - Dairy Products..............................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices.......................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows..........(202) 720-3278 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter.......................(515) 284-4340 Scott Hollis - Sheep and Goats...........................(202) 690-2424 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed.....................(202) 720-3040 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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