Mt An 2-1 (11-07) Cattle On Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 16, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Mike Miller at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 2 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.8 million head on November 1, 2007. The inventory was 2 percent below November 1, 2006 but 3 percent above November 1, 2005. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.72 million, 12 percent above 2006 but 3 percent below 2005. Net placements were 2.67 million head. During October, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 855,000, 600-699 pounds were 745,000, 700-799 pounds were 556,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 560,000. Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.88 million, 6 percent above 2006 and 8 percent above 2005. Other disappearance totaled 47,000 during October, 42 percent below 2006 and 19 percent below 2005. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, November 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Oct 1 1/ : 10,482 11,385 10,967 105 96 Placed on Feed During Oct : 2,788 2,430 2,716 97 112 Fed Cattle Marketed During Oct : 1,739 1,765 1,876 108 106 Other Disappearance During Oct 2/ : 58 81 47 81 58 On Feed Nov 1 1/ : 11,473 11,969 11,760 103 98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, October 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Sep 1 1/ : 10,000 10,986 10,302 103 94 Placed on Feed During Sep : 2,355 2,227 *2,420 103 109 Fed Cattle Marketed During Sep : 1,816 1,760 *1,701 94 97 Other Disappearance During Sep 2/ : 57 68 54 95 79 On Feed Oct 1 1/ : 10,482 11,385 10,967 105 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Nov 1, 2007 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Nov 1, 2006 : Oct 1, 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Oct -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 342 350 360 105 103 CA : 530 540 545 103 101 CO : 1,130 940 1,030 91 110 ID : 285 210 235 82 112 IA : 490 510 550 112 108 KS : 2,550 2,310 2,420 95 105 NE : 2,440 2,140 2,400 98 112 NM : 141 133 134 95 101 OK : 360 325 335 93 103 SD : 190 180 205 108 114 TX : 2,990 2,840 3,000 100 106 WA : 181 154 166 92 108 : Oth Sts: 340 335 380 112 113 : US : 11,969 10,967 11,760 98 107 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Oct 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Oct 2006 : Sep 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Sep -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 34 28 39 115 139 CA : 71 60 67 94 112 CO : 215 *260 260 121 100 ID : 71 48 69 97 144 IA : 109 100 120 110 120 KS : 520 540 530 102 98 NE : 560 540 620 111 115 NM : 14 17 22 157 129 OK : 65 72 74 114 103 SD : 64 43 71 111 165 TX : 590 590 700 119 119 WA : 34 36 42 124 117 : Oth Sts: 83 86 102 123 119 : US : 2,430 *2,420 2,716 112 112 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During October :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 55 65 55 65 45 55 60 75 215 260 KS : 180 175 120 135 125 125 95 95 520 530 NE : 175 175 175 175 95 110 115 160 560 620 TX : 210 210 185 230 135 180 60 80 590 700 : Oth Sts : 220 230 115 140 85 86 125 150 545 606 : US : 840 855 650 745 485 556 455 560 2,430 2,716 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During September :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 45 35 35 40 50 *60 110 125 240 *260 KS : 185 140 105 140 100 130 110 130 500 540 NE : 105 100 70 80 120 120 205 240 500 540 TX : 230 190 135 170 85 165 45 65 495 590 : Oth Sts : 155 145 67 75 95 90 175 180 492 490 : US : 720 610 412 505 450 *565 645 740 2,227 *2,420 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Oct 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Oct 2006 : Sep 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Sep -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 27 24 27 100 113 CA : 62 47 60 97 128 CO : 135 *165 165 122 100 ID : 50 41 43 86 105 IA : 78 79 79 101 100 KS : 395 355 410 104 115 NE : 330 320 350 106 109 NM : 13 13 19 146 146 OK : 58 56 63 109 113 SD : 43 37 45 105 122 TX : 510 480 530 104 110 WA : 23 29 29 126 100 : Oth Sts: 41 55 56 137 102 : US : 1,765 *1,701 1,876 106 110 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Oct 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Oct 2006 : Sep 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Sep -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 1 2 2 200 100 CA : 4 3 2 50 67 CO : 10 5 5 50 100 ID : 1 2 1 100 50 IA : 1 1 1 100 100 KS : 25 15 10 40 67 NE : 10 10 10 100 100 NM : 3 2 2 67 100 OK : 2 1 1 50 100 SD : 1 1 1 100 100 TX : 20 10 10 50 100 WA : 1 1 1 100 100 : Oth Sts: 2 1 1 50 100 : US : 81 54 47 58 87 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 10 years is .2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.8 million head by more than .2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed .3 percent. The following table also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 11,000 head, ranging from 0 to 44,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been below the final estimate 5 times, and above the final estimate 1 time. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of U.S. November 1 Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.2 0.3 36.0 11 0 44 1 5 : Placements : 0.4 0.6 17.5 7 0 20 1 6 : Marketings : 0.5 0.9 16.0 6 0 20 2 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch.........................................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Shawn Clark, Head, Livestock Section..........................................(202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs...........................................(202) 720-3106 Vacant - Dairy Products...............................................(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows.......................(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats & Kids............................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed..................................(202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter....................................(515) 284-4340 Vacant - Dairy Products Prices........................................(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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