Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released October 21, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Up 5 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.3 million head on October 1, 2011. The inventory was 5 percent above October 1, 2010. This is the second highest October 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. The inventory included 6.95 million steers and steer calves, up 5 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 61 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.32 million head, up 5 percent from 2010. Placements in feedlots during September totaled 2.47 million, slightly above 2010. Net placements were 2.40 million head. During September, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 685,000, 600-699 pounds were 415,000, 700-799 pounds were 504,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 865,000. Marketings of fed cattle during September totaled 1.81 million, 1 percent above 2010. Other disappearance totaled 74,000 during September, 37 percent above 2010. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: October 1, 2010 and 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2010 : 2011 :previous year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed September 1 .................: 10,181 10,730 105 Placed on feed during September .....: 2,463 2,469 100 Fed cattle marketed during September : 1,802 1,813 101 Other disappearance during September : 54 74 137 On feed October 1 ...................: 10,788 11,312 105 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: September 1, 2010 and 2011 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2010 : 2011 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed August 1 .......................: 9,880 10,589 107 Placed on feed during August ...........: 2,271 2,259 99 Fed cattle marketed during August ......: 1,923 2,046 106 Other disappearance during August ......: 47 72 153 On feed September 1 ....................: 10,181 10,730 105 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number on Feed by Class on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: October 1, 2010 and 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2010 : 2011 :previous year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head --- percent : Class on Feed October 1 : Steers and Steer Calves ...........: 6,607 6,945 105 Heifers and Heifer Calves .........: 4,126 4,318 105 Cows and Bulls ....................: 55 49 89 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : October 1, 2011 : : :----------------------------------------- State : October 1, 2010 :September 1, 2011: : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 head ------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ........: 240 283 280 117 99 California .....: 445 475 490 110 103 Colorado .......: 1,000 990 1,070 107 108 Idaho ..........: 205 195 220 107 113 Iowa ...........: 570 550 570 100 104 Kansas .........: 2,330 2,210 2,320 100 105 Nebraska .......: 2,220 2,010 2,210 100 110 Oklahoma .......: 370 365 370 100 101 South Dakota ...: 205 190 205 100 108 Texas ..........: 2,640 2,900 2,950 112 102 Washington .....: 181 193 208 115 108 : Other States ...: 382 369 419 110 114 : United States ..: 10,788 10,730 11,312 105 105 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During September 2011 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :September 2010: August 2011 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 22 19 19 86 100 California .......: 55 56 70 127 125 Colorado .........: 295 230 275 93 120 Idaho ............: 57 43 67 118 156 Iowa .............: 122 84 115 94 137 Kansas ...........: 510 520 500 98 96 Nebraska .........: 540 445 560 104 126 Oklahoma .........: 87 75 88 101 117 South Dakota .....: 57 45 51 89 113 Texas ............: 580 620 560 97 90 Washington .......: 45 48 54 120 113 : Other States .....: 93 74 110 118 149 : United States ....: 2,463 2,259 2,469 100 109 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : During September :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 35 40 35 25 65 60 160 150 295 275 Kansas .......: 75 120 110 110 160 140 165 130 510 500 Nebraska .....: 75 100 80 80 130 110 255 270 540 560 Texas ........: 190 280 165 125 145 85 80 70 580 560 : Other States .: 135 145 65 75 103 109 235 245 538 574 : United States : 510 685 455 415 603 504 895 865 2,463 2,469 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During August :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 25 45 20 30 55 45 90 110 190 230 Kansas .......: 90 105 115 105 200 165 205 145 610 520 Nebraska .....: 55 90 80 65 100 100 245 190 480 445 Texas ........: 215 365 120 115 120 85 85 55 540 620 : Other States .: 110 110 60 55 91 84 190 195 451 444 : United States : 495 715 395 370 566 479 815 695 2,271 2,259 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During September 2011 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :September 2010: August 2011 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 21 22 21 100 95 California .......: 43 56 49 114 88 Colorado .........: 180 205 185 103 90 Idaho ............: 41 42 41 100 98 Iowa .............: 108 92 92 85 100 Kansas ...........: 370 475 375 101 79 Nebraska .........: 360 400 350 97 88 Oklahoma .........: 71 67 79 111 118 South Dakota .....: 45 48 35 78 73 Texas ............: 475 540 490 103 91 Washington .......: 33 44 38 115 86 : Other States .....: 55 55 58 105 105 : United States ....: 1,802 2,046 1,813 101 89 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During September 2011 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :September 2010: August 2011 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 1 1 100 100 California .......: 2 5 6 300 120 Colorado .........: 5 5 10 200 200 Idaho ............: 1 1 1 100 100 Iowa .............: 4 2 3 75 150 Kansas ...........: 10 15 15 150 100 Nebraska .........: 10 15 10 100 67 Oklahoma .........: 1 3 4 400 133 South Dakota .....: 2 2 1 50 50 Texas ............: 15 20 20 133 100 Washington .......: 1 1 1 100 100 : Other States .....: 2 2 2 100 100 : United States ....: 54 72 74 137 103 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number on Feed by Class on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Quarter - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Steers and steer calves :Heifers and heifer calves : Cows and bulls :----------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Oct 1, : Jul 1, : Oct 1, : Oct 1, : Jul 1, : Oct 1, :Oct 1, :Jul 1, :Oct 1, : 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Arizona ......: 239 283 277 1 4 3 0 0 0 California ...: 355 410 425 90 60 63 0 0 2 Colorado .....: 705 690 730 290 305 335 5 5 5 Idaho ........: 119 110 136 80 104 82 6 1 2 Iowa .........: 395 410 390 175 180 179 0 0 1 Kansas .......: 1,230 1,070 1,220 1,090 955 1,090 10 5 10 Nebraska .....: 1,340 1,190 1,290 865 820 905 15 10 15 Oklahoma .....: 205 210 205 165 140 165 0 0 0 South Dakota .: 97 107 114 92 86 81 16 17 10 Texas ........: 1,560 1,640 1,750 1,079 1,059 1,199 1 1 1 Washington ...: 108 122 123 72 74 83 1 1 2 : Other States .: 254 272 285 127 106 133 1 1 1 : United States : 6,607 6,514 6,945 4,126 3,893 4,318 55 41 49 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 11 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 5 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 5 States include Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.3 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 10,000 head, ranging from 0 to 37,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 10 times and has been below the latest estimate 10 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : Number on feed ...............: 0.1 0.2 10 0 37 10 10 : Placements ...................: 0.4 0.7 4 0 20 11 7 : Marketings ...................: 0.3 0.5 2 0 21 9 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Dairy Products Prices ....... (202) 690-2168 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ..... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats ............. (202) 720-4751 Lorie Warren - Dairy Products ................ (202) 690-3236 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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