Mt An 2-1 (3-09) Cattle on Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 20, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Jason Hardegree at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 5 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.2 million head on March 1, 2009. The inventory was 5 percent below March 1, 2008. Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.68 million, 3 percent below 2008. Net placements were 1.62 million head. During February, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 320,000, 600-699 pounds were 385,000, 700-799 pounds were 538,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 435,000. Marketings of fed cattle during February totaled 1.68 million, 5 percent below 2008. Other disappearance totaled 56,000 during February, 7 percent below 2008. This is the lowest other disappearance for the month of February since the series began in 1996. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, March 1, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2009 as % Item :---------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : of 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head ---- Percent : On Feed Feb 1 : 11,966 11,288 94 Placed on Feed During Feb : 1,723 1,678 97 Fed Cattle Marketed During Feb : 1,776 1,682 95 Other Disappearance During Feb : 60 56 93 On Feed Mar 1 : 11,853 11,228 95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, February 1, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2009 as % Item :---------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : of 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head ---- Percent : On Feed Jan 1 : 12,092 11,234 93 Placed on Feed During Jan : 1,787 1,858 104 Fed Cattle Marketed During Jan : 1,853 1,737 94 Other Disappearance During Jan : 60 67 112 On Feed Feb 1 : 11,966 11,288 94 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Mar 1, 2009 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Mar 1, 2008 : Feb 1, 2009 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2008 : Feb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 377 349 342 91 98 CA : 545 480 460 84 96 CO : 1,050 1,020 1,040 99 102 ID : 235 215 215 91 100 IA : 560 520 520 93 100 KS : 2,410 2,260 2,290 95 101 NE : 2,490 2,400 2,330 94 97 NM : 160 158 148 93 94 OK : 350 330 330 94 100 SD : 235 225 225 96 100 TX : 2,920 2,810 2,820 97 100 WA : 151 151 153 101 101 : Oth Sts: 370 370 355 96 96 : US : 11,853 11,288 11,228 95 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Feb 2009 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Feb 2008 : Jan 2009 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2008 : Jan -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 36 27 26 72 96 CA : 60 51 36 60 71 CO : 155 200 190 123 95 ID : 39 37 38 97 103 IA : 62 81 62 100 77 KS : 390 435 420 108 97 NE : 350 400 310 89 78 NM : 15 9 9 60 100 OK : 45 54 51 113 94 SD : 47 43 43 91 100 TX : 440 440 430 98 98 WA : 30 30 28 93 93 : Oth Sts: 54 51 35 65 69 : US : 1,723 1,858 1,678 97 90 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During February :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 10 20 35 45 50 55 60 70 155 190 KS : 40 50 85 95 160 165 105 110 390 420 NE : 40 50 70 60 110 100 130 100 350 310 TX : 120 100 125 115 125 140 70 75 440 430 : Oth Sts : 120 100 70 70 88 78 110 80 388 328 : US : 330 320 385 385 533 538 475 435 1,723 1,678 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During January :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 20 20 45 55 55 55 60 70 180 200 KS : 55 60 120 130 140 160 90 85 405 435 NE : 50 65 90 95 125 130 115 110 380 400 TX : 135 105 125 135 110 135 30 65 400 440 : Oth Sts : 140 130 87 90 95 73 100 90 422 383 : US : 400 380 467 505 525 553 395 420 1,787 1,858 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Feb 2009 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Feb 2008 : Jan 2009 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2008 : Jan -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 30 35 32 107 91 CA : 63 59 54 86 92 CO : 190 170 165 87 97 ID : 38 41 37 97 90 IA : 69 59 61 88 103 KS : 400 430 375 94 87 NE : 360 360 370 103 103 NM : 14 13 18 129 138 OK : 48 57 49 102 86 SD : 40 35 39 98 111 TX : 440 405 410 93 101 WA : 30 35 25 83 71 : Oth Sts: 54 38 47 87 124 : US : 1,776 1,737 1,682 95 97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Feb 2009 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Feb 2008 : Jan 2009 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2008 : Jan -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 2 1 1 50 100 CA : 7 2 2 29 100 CO : 5 10 5 100 50 ID : 1 1 1 100 100 IA : 3 2 1 33 50 KS : 10 15 15 150 100 NE : 10 10 10 100 100 NM : 1 2 1 100 50 OK : 2 2 2 100 100 SD : 2 3 4 200 133 TX : 10 15 10 100 67 WA : 2 1 1 50 100 : Oth Sts: 5 3 3 60 100 : US : 60 67 56 93 84 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is less than 0.1 percent (0.04). This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.2 million head by more than 0.04 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. The following table also shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 1,000 head, ranging from 0 to 18,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the final estimate one time and has been below the final estimate four times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Months Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.0 0.1 11.2 1 0 18 1 4 : Placements : 0.2 0.3 5.0 2 0 10 4 5 : Marketings : 0.2 0.3 5.0 2 0 10 5 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch............................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section............................(202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products..............................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices.......................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed.................(202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter..................(515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats.........................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows..............(202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs..............................(202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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