Mt An 2-1 (12-07) Cattle On Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 21, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Mike Miller at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 12.1 million head on December 1, 2007. The inventory was 1 percent above December 1, 2006 and 3 percent above December 1, 2005. This is the highest December 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in feedlots during November totaled 2.12 million, 12 percent above 2006 and 3 percent above 2005. Net placements were 2.06 million head. During November, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 685,000, 600-699 pounds were 650,000, 700-799 pounds were 420,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 361,000. Marketings of fed cattle during November totaled 1.74 million, 3 percent below 2006 but 2 percent above 2005. Other disappearance totaled 57,000 during November, 31 percent below 2006 and 37 percent below 2005. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, December 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Nov 1 1/ : 11,473 11,969 11,760 103 98 Placed on Feed During Nov : 2,045 1,884 2,116 103 112 Fed Cattle Marketed During Nov : 1,701 1,797 1,738 102 97 Other Disappearance During Nov 2/ : 91 83 57 63 69 On Feed Dec 1 1/ : 11,726 11,973 12,081 103 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, November 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Oct 1 1/ : 10,482 11,385 10,967 105 96 Placed on Feed During Oct : 2,788 2,430 2,716 97 112 Fed Cattle Marketed During Oct : 1,739 1,765 1,876 108 106 Other Disappearance During Oct 2/ : 58 81 47 81 58 On Feed Nov 1 1/ : 11,473 11,969 11,760 103 98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Dec 1, 2007 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Dec 1, 2006 : Nov 1, 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Nov -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 341 360 367 108 102 CA : 540 545 555 103 102 CO : 1,120 1,030 1,070 96 104 ID : 270 235 240 89 102 IA : 500 550 570 114 104 KS : 2,550 2,420 2,500 98 103 NE : 2,510 2,400 2,520 100 105 NM : 137 134 131 96 98 OK : 350 335 345 99 103 SD : 210 205 215 102 105 TX : 2,900 3,000 3,010 104 100 WA : 185 166 168 91 101 : Oth Sts: 360 380 390 108 103 : US : 11,973 11,760 12,081 101 103 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Nov 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Nov 2006 : Oct 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Oct -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 30 39 37 123 95 CA : 69 67 73 106 109 CO : 145 260 190 131 73 ID : 43 69 48 112 70 IA : 82 120 96 117 80 KS : 405 530 450 111 85 NE : 460 620 485 105 78 NM : 14 22 22 157 100 OK : 50 74 62 124 84 SD : 56 71 50 89 70 TX : 435 700 510 117 73 WA : 31 42 31 100 74 : Oth Sts: 64 102 62 97 61 : US : 1,884 2,716 2,116 112 78 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During November :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 45 55 40 60 30 35 30 40 145 190 KS : 110 140 115 135 105 100 75 75 405 450 NE : 100 120 165 170 95 100 100 95 460 485 TX : 145 180 130 165 100 110 60 55 435 510 : Oth Sts : 155 190 110 120 74 75 100 96 439 481 : US : 555 685 560 650 404 420 365 361 1,884 2,116 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During October :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 55 65 55 65 45 55 60 75 215 260 KS : 180 175 120 135 125 125 95 95 520 530 NE : 175 175 175 175 95 110 115 160 560 620 TX : 210 210 185 230 135 180 60 80 590 700 : Oth Sts : 220 230 115 140 85 86 125 150 545 606 : US : 840 855 650 745 485 556 455 560 2,430 2,716 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Nov 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Nov 2006 : Oct 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Oct -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 29 27 27 93 100 CA : 55 60 61 111 102 CO : 145 165 145 100 88 ID : 56 43 42 75 98 IA : 70 79 75 107 95 KS : 385 410 355 92 87 NE : 380 350 355 93 101 NM : 16 19 23 144 121 OK : 57 63 50 88 79 SD : 35 45 38 109 84 TX : 500 530 490 98 92 WA : 26 29 27 104 93 : Oth Sts: 43 56 50 116 89 : US : 1,797 1,876 1,738 97 93 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Nov 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Nov 2006 : Oct 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Oct -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 2 2 3 150 150 CA : 4 2 2 50 100 CO : 10 5 5 50 100 ID : 2 1 1 50 100 IA : 2 1 1 50 100 KS : 20 10 15 75 150 NE : 10 10 10 100 100 NM : 2 2 2 100 100 OK : 3 1 2 67 200 SD : 1 1 2 200 200 TX : 25 10 10 40 100 WA : 1 1 2 200 200 : Oth Sts: 1 1 2 200 200 : US : 83 47 57 69 121 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 10 years is .2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 12.1 million head by more than .2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed .3 percent. The following table also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 11,000 head, ranging from 0 to 48,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been below the final estimate 4 times, and above the final estimate 1 time. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of U.S. December 1 Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.2 0.3 39.5 11 0 48 1 4 : Placements : 0.2 0.4 9.5 2 0 14 1 2 : Marketings : 0.3 0.5 8.7 3 0 10 1 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch.............................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Shawn Clark, Head, Livestock Section..............................(202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs...............................(202) 720-3106 Vacant - Dairy Products...................................(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows...........(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats & Kids................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed......................(202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter........................(515) 284-4340 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices........................(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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