Mt An 2-1 (10-07) Cattle On Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 19, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Mike Miller at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 4 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.0 million head on October 1, 2007. The inventory was 4 percent below October 1, 2006 but 5 percent above October 1, 2005. The inventory included 6.83 million steers and steer calves, down 5 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 62 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.07 million head, down 1 percent from 2006. Placements in feedlots during September totaled 2.43 million, 9 percent above 2006 and 3 percent above 2005. Net placements were 2.37 million head. During September, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 610,000, 600-699 pounds were 505,000, 700-799 pounds were 570,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 740,000. Marketings of fed cattle during September totaled 1.71 million, 3 percent below 2006 and 6 percent below 2005. This is the second lowest fed cattle marketings for the month of September since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 54,000 during September, 21 percent below 2006 and 5 percent below 2005. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, October 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Sep 1 1/ : 10,000 10,986 10,302 103 94 Placed on Feed During Sep : 2,355 2,227 2,425 103 109 Fed Cattle Marketed During Sep : 1,816 1,760 1,706 94 97 Other Disappearance During Sep 2/ : 57 68 54 95 79 On Feed Oct 1 1/ : 10,482 11,385 10,967 105 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, September 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Aug 1 1/ : 10,093 10,822 10,299 102 95 Placed on Feed During Aug : 1,993 2,290 2,119 106 93 Fed Cattle Marketed During Aug : 2,033 2,067 2,066 102 100 Other Disappearance During Aug 2/ : 53 59 50 94 85 On Feed Sep 1 1/ : 10,000 10,986 10,302 103 94 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed by Class, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, October 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ----- Percent : Class on Feed Oct 1 : Steers and Steer Calves : 6,872 7,197 6,832 99 95 Heifers and Heifer Calves : 3,553 4,122 4,070 115 99 Cows and Bulls : 57 66 65 114 98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Oct 1, 2007 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Oct 1, 2006 : Sep 1, 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Sep -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 336 348 350 104 101 CA : 525 530 540 103 102 CO : 1,060 850 940 89 111 ID : 265 205 210 79 102 IA : 460 490 510 111 104 KS : 2,450 2,140 2,310 94 108 NE : 2,220 1,930 2,140 96 111 NM : 143 131 133 93 102 OK : 355 310 325 92 105 SD : 170 175 180 106 103 TX : 2,930 2,740 2,840 97 104 WA : 171 148 154 90 104 : Oth Sts: 300 305 335 112 110 : US : 11,385 10,302 10,967 96 106 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Sep 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Sep 2006 : Aug 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Aug -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 28 36 28 100 78 CA : 72 54 60 83 111 CO : 240 170 265 110 156 ID : 72 48 48 67 100 IA : 81 71 100 123 141 KS : 500 520 540 108 104 NE : 500 465 540 108 116 NM : 21 22 17 81 77 OK : 71 75 72 101 96 SD : 50 37 43 86 116 TX : 495 520 590 119 113 WA : 37 35 36 97 103 : Oth Sts: 60 66 86 143 130 : US : 2,227 2,119 2,425 109 114 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During September :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 45 35 35 40 50 65 110 125 240 265 KS : 185 140 105 140 100 130 110 130 500 540 NE : 105 100 70 80 120 120 205 240 500 540 TX : 230 190 135 170 85 165 45 65 495 590 : Oth Sts : 155 145 67 75 95 90 175 180 492 490 : US : 720 610 412 505 450 570 645 740 2,227 2,425 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During August :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 50 25 25 30 50 40 75 75 200 170 KS : 140 100 120 120 185 160 145 140 590 520 NE : 80 75 75 70 115 115 200 205 470 465 TX : 280 160 140 160 95 140 55 60 570 520 : Oth Sts : 130 130 70 60 90 94 170 160 460 444 : US : 680 490 430 440 535 549 645 640 2,290 2,119 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Sep 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Sep 2006 : Aug 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Aug -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 26 28 24 92 86 CA : 64 62 47 73 76 CO : 135 185 170 126 92 ID : 41 47 41 100 87 IA : 73 80 79 108 99 KS : 420 465 355 85 76 NE : 320 435 320 100 74 NM : 16 19 13 81 68 OK : 59 69 56 95 81 SD : 34 36 37 109 103 TX : 510 550 480 94 87 WA : 23 30 29 126 97 : Oth Sts: 39 60 55 141 92 : US : 1,760 2,066 1,706 97 83 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Sep 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Sep 2006 : Aug 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Aug -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 2 1 2 100 200 CA : 3 2 3 100 150 CO : 5 5 5 100 100 ID : 1 1 2 200 200 IA : 3 1 1 33 100 KS : 20 15 15 75 100 NE : 10 10 10 100 100 NM : 4 1 2 50 200 OK : 2 1 1 50 100 SD : 1 1 1 100 100 TX : 15 10 10 67 100 WA : 1 1 1 100 100 : Oth Sts: 1 1 1 100 100 : US : 68 50 54 79 108 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed by Class, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Quarter, State, and United States, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Steers & Steer Calves :Heifers & Heifer Calves: Cows and Bulls :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Oct 1, :Jul 1, :Oct 1, :Oct 1, :Jul 1, :Oct 1, :Oct 1, :Jul 1, :Oct 1, : 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AZ : 334 342 349 2 1 1 0 0 0 CA : 480 490 490 45 54 50 0 1 0 CO : 730 590 575 325 345 360 5 5 5 ID : 172 133 114 92 83 91 1 4 5 IA : 310 340 350 149 169 159 1 1 1 KS : 1,280 1,090 1,220 1,150 1,030 1,065 20 20 25 NE : 1,250 1,230 1,280 950 810 850 20 10 10 NM : 82 84 82 61 48 51 0 0 0 OK : 245 225 220 110 100 105 0 0 0 SD : 82 98 87 74 80 80 14 19 13 TX : 1,900 1,780 1,740 1,027 1,087 1,097 3 3 3 WA : 97 90 80 73 59 73 1 1 1 : Oth Sts : 235 250 245 64 62 88 1 3 2 : US : 7,197 6,742 6,832 4,122 3,928 4,070 66 67 65 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 10 years is .2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.0 million head by more than .2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed .3 percent. The following table also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 10,000 head, ranging from 0 to 36,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been below the final estimate 5 times, and above the final estimate 0 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of U.S. October 1 Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.2 0.3 33.3 10 0 36 0 5 : Placements : 0.2 0.3 7.7 2 0 11 0 4 : Marketings : 0.1 0.2 2.7 1 0 5 0 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch (202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Shawn Clark, Head, Livestock Section (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs (202) 720-3106 Vacant - Dairy Products (202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows (202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats & Kids (202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed (202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter (515) 284-4340 Vacant - Dairy Products Prices (202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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