Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released November 18, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Up 4 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.9 million head on November 1, 2011. The inventory was 4 percent above November 1, 2010. This is the second highest November 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.49 million, 1 percent below 2010. Net placements were 2.40 million head. During October, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 805,000, 600-699 pounds were 600,000, 700-799 pounds were 501,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 585,000. Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.79 million, 3 percent above 2010. Other disappearance totaled 93,000 during October, 50 percent above 2010. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: November 1, 2010 and 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2010 : 2011 :previous year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed October 1 ...................: 10,788 11,312 105 Placed on feed during October .......: 2,505 2,491 99 Fed cattle marketed during October ..: 1,734 1,786 103 Other disappearance during October ..: 62 93 150 On feed November 1 ..................: 11,497 11,924 104 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: October 1, 2010 and 2011 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2010 : 2011 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed September 1 ....................: 10,181 10,730 105 Placed on feed during September ........: 2,463 2,469 100 Fed cattle marketed during September ...: 1,802 1,813 101 Other disappearance during September ...: 54 74 137 On feed October 1 ......................: 10,788 11,312 105 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : November 1, 2011 : : :----------------------------------------- State :November 1, 2010 : October 1, 2011 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 head ------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ........: 251 280 292 116 104 California .....: 460 490 495 108 101 Colorado .......: 1,090 1,070 1,140 105 107 Idaho ..........: 220 220 225 102 102 Iowa ...........: 610 570 590 97 104 Kansas .........: 2,400 2,320 2,380 99 103 Nebraska .......: 2,420 2,210 2,470 102 112 Oklahoma .......: 385 370 390 101 105 South Dakota ...: 230 205 240 104 117 Texas ..........: 2,820 2,950 3,030 107 103 Washington .....: 197 208 226 115 109 : Other States ...: 414 419 446 108 106 : United States ..: 11,497 11,312 11,924 104 105 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During October 2011 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : October 2010 :September 2011: : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 32 19 32 100 168 California .......: 65 70 58 89 83 Colorado .........: 270 275 230 85 84 Idaho ............: 53 67 55 104 82 Iowa .............: 142 115 137 96 119 Kansas ...........: 435 500 425 98 85 Nebraska .........: 580 560 665 115 119 Oklahoma .........: 80 88 86 108 98 South Dakota .....: 70 51 75 107 147 Texas ............: 640 560 570 89 102 Washington .......: 53 54 59 111 109 : Other States .....: 85 110 99 116 90 : United States ....: 2,505 2,469 2,491 99 101 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : During October :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 55 60 55 50 60 50 100 70 270 230 Kansas .......: 90 110 115 115 125 110 105 90 435 425 Nebraska .....: 170 185 160 180 90 110 160 190 580 665 Texas ........: 220 220 190 140 145 130 85 80 640 570 : Other States .: 190 230 120 115 95 101 175 155 580 601 : United States : 725 805 640 600 515 501 625 585 2,505 2,491 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During September :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 35 40 35 25 65 60 160 150 295 275 Kansas .......: 75 120 110 110 160 140 165 130 510 500 Nebraska .....: 75 100 80 80 130 110 255 270 540 560 Texas ........: 190 280 165 125 145 85 80 70 580 560 : Other States .: 135 145 65 75 103 109 235 245 538 574 : United States : 510 685 455 415 603 504 895 865 2,463 2,469 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During October 2011 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : October 2010 :September 2011: : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 20 21 19 95 90 California .......: 48 49 48 100 98 Colorado .........: 170 185 155 91 84 Idaho ............: 37 41 48 130 117 Iowa .............: 100 92 115 115 125 Kansas ...........: 350 375 345 99 92 Nebraska .........: 370 350 390 105 111 Oklahoma .........: 63 79 63 100 80 South Dakota .....: 44 35 39 89 111 Texas ............: 445 490 460 103 94 Washington .......: 36 38 40 111 105 : Other States .....: 51 58 64 125 110 : United States ....: 1,734 1,813 1,786 103 99 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During October 2011 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : October 2010 :September 2011: : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 1 1 100 100 California .......: 2 6 5 250 83 Colorado .........: 10 10 5 50 50 Idaho ............: 1 1 2 200 200 Iowa .............: 2 3 2 100 67 Kansas ...........: 15 15 20 133 133 Nebraska .........: 10 10 15 150 150 Oklahoma .........: 2 4 3 150 75 South Dakota .....: 1 1 1 100 100 Texas ............: 15 20 30 200 150 Washington .......: 1 1 1 100 100 : Other States .....: 2 2 8 400 400 : United States ....: 62 74 93 150 126 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 11 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 5 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 5 States include Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.9 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 10,000 head, ranging from 0 to 37,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 10 times and has been below the latest estimate 10 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : Number on feed ...............: 0.1 0.2 10 0 37 10 10 : Placements ...................: 0.4 0.7 4 0 20 11 7 : Marketings ...................: 0.1 0.2 1 0 4 8 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Dairy Products Prices ....... (202) 690-2168 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ..... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Everett Olbert - Dairy Products Prices........ (202) 720-4751 Lorie Warren - Dairy Products ................ (202) 690-3236 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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