Mt An 2-1 (1-07) Cattle On Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 26, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Mike Miller at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 12.0 million head on January 1, 2007. The inventory was 1 percent above January 1, 2006 and 6 percent above January 1, 2005. This is the highest January 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. The inventory included 7.57 million steers and steer calves, up slightly from the previous year. This group accounted for 63 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.30 million head, up 4 percent from January 1, 2006. Placements in feedlots during December totaled 1.71 million, 9 percent below 2005 and 7 percent below 2004. Net placements were 1.63 million. During December, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 470,000, 600-699 pounds were 504,000, 700-799 pounds were 420,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 320,000. Marketings of fed cattle during December totaled 1.63 million, 5 percent below 2005 and 9 percent below 2004. This is the lowest fed cattle marketings for the month of December since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 88,000 during December, 3 percent below 2005 and 4 percent below 2004. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, January 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Dec 1 1/2/ : 11,334 11,726 11,973 106 102 Placed on Feed During Dec2/ : 1,834 1,884 1,714 93 91 Fed Cattle Marketed During Dec2/ : 1,777 1,715 1,625 91 95 Other Disappearance During Dec 2/3/: 92 91 88 96 97 On Feed Jan 1 1/ : 11,299 11,804 11,974 106 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ December preceding year. 3/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, December 1, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2006 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Nov 1 1/ : 11,334 11,473 11,969 106 104 Placed on Feed During Nov : 1,743 2,045 *1,884 108 92 Fed Cattle Marketed During Nov : 1,635 1,701 *1,797 110 106 Other Disappearance During Nov 2/ : 108 91 83 77 91 On Feed Dec 1 1/ : 11,334 11,726 11,973 106 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed by Class, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, January 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ----- Percent : Class on Feed Jan 1 : Steers and Steer Calves : 7,175 7,570 7,574 106 100 Heifers and Heifer Calves : 4,046 4,147 4,303 106 104 Cows and Bulls : 78 87 97 124 111 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Jan 1, 2007 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Jan 1, 2006 : Dec 1, 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Dec -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 334 341 334 100 98 CA : 550 540 550 100 102 CO : 1,080 1,120 1,100 102 98 ID : 275 270 260 95 96 IA : 510 500 520 102 104 KS : 2,500 2,550 2,540 102 100 NE : 2,430 2,510 2,540 105 101 NM : 143 137 136 95 99 OK : 370 350 350 95 100 SD : 205 210 225 110 107 TX : 2,920 2,900 2,870 98 99 WA : 152 185 184 121 99 : Oth Sts: 335 360 365 109 101 : US : 11,804 11,973 11,974 101 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Dec 2006 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Dec 2005 : Nov 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Nov -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 35 30 26 74 87 CA : 69 69 77 112 112 CO : 155 *145 135 87 93 ID : 48 43 39 81 91 IA : 65 82 82 126 100 KS : 495 405 410 83 101 NE : 350 460 390 111 85 NM : 20 14 15 75 107 OK : 64 50 46 72 92 SD : 46 56 50 109 89 TX : 465 435 370 80 85 WA : 26 31 24 92 77 : Oth Sts: 46 64 50 109 78 : US : 1,884 *1,884 1,714 91 91 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During December :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 35 25 45 40 45 40 30 30 155 135 KS : 120 95 150 140 135 105 90 70 495 410 NE : 60 65 100 115 100 115 90 95 350 390 TX : 200 140 165 115 70 80 30 35 465 370 : Oth Sts : 160 145 94 94 80 80 85 90 419 409 : US : 575 470 554 504 430 420 325 320 1,884 1,714 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During November :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 45 45 60 *40 35 30 25 30 165 *145 KS : 155 110 145 115 100 105 65 75 465 405 NE : 120 100 145 165 85 95 90 100 440 460 TX : 160 145 170 130 120 100 45 60 495 435 : Oth Sts : 180 155 130 110 80 74 90 100 480 439 : US : 660 555 650 *560 420 404 315 365 2,045 *1,884 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Dec 2006 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Dec 2005 : Nov 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Nov -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 27 29 31 115 107 CA : 60 55 63 105 115 CO : 140 *145 150 107 103 ID : 50 56 41 82 73 IA : 53 70 59 111 84 KS : 435 385 390 90 101 NE : 305 380 350 115 92 NM : 13 16 15 115 94 OK : 57 57 42 74 74 SD : 28 35 32 114 91 TX : 470 500 385 82 77 WA : 34 26 24 71 92 : Oth Sts: 43 43 43 100 100 : US : 1,715 *1,797 1,625 95 90 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Dec 2006 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Dec 2005 : Nov 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Nov -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 2 2 2 100 100 CA : 9 4 4 44 100 CO : 5 10 5 100 50 ID : 3 2 8 267 400 IA : 2 2 3 150 150 KS : 30 20 30 100 150 NE : 15 10 10 67 100 NM : 1 2 1 100 50 OK : 2 3 4 200 133 SD : 3 1 3 100 300 TX : 15 25 15 100 60 WA : 1 1 1 100 100 : Oth Sts: 3 1 2 67 200 : US : 91 83 88 97 106 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed by Class, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Quarter, State, and United States, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Steers & Steer Calves :Heifers & Heifer Calves: Cows and Bulls :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Jan 1, :Oct 1, :Jan 1, :Jan 1, :Oct 1, :Jan 1, :Jan 1, :Oct 1, :Jan 1, : 2006 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AZ : 332 334 331 2 2 3 0 0 0 CA : 506 480 495 44 45 55 0 0 0 CO : 690 730 710 380 325 380 10 5 10 ID : 167 172 148 106 92 102 2 1 10 IA : 340 310 350 169 149 169 1 1 1 KS : 1,390 1,280 1,360 1,090 1,150 1,155 20 20 25 NE : 1,460 1,250 1,580 950 950 940 20 20 20 NM : 78 82 82 65 61 54 0 0 0 OK : 265 245 230 105 110 120 0 0 0 SD : 105 82 115 73 74 85 27 14 25 TX : 1,900 1,900 1,800 1,017 1,027 1,067 3 3 3 WA : 92 97 103 59 73 80 1 1 1 : Oth Sts : 245 235 270 87 64 93 3 1 2 : US : 7,570 7,197 7,574 4,147 4,122 4,303 87 66 97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 10 years is .2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 12.0 million head by more than .2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed .4 percent. The following table also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 14,000 head, ranging from 0 to 70,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been below the final estimate 4 times, and above the final estimate 1 time. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of U.S. January 1 Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.2 0.4 53.1 14 0 70 1 4 : Placements : 0.5 0.9 16.2 4 0 20 0 2 : Marketings : 0.2 0.3 5.3 1 0 10 1 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch(202) 720-3570 William Weaver, Head, Livestock Section (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs(202) 720-3106 Shawn Clark - Dairy Products(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed(202) 720-3040 Katy Paulsen - Livestock Slaughter(515) 284-4340 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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