Mt An 2-1 (3-06) Cattle On Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 24, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Mike Miller at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 8 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 12.0 million head on March 1, 2006. The inventory was 8 percent above March 1, 2005 and 9 percent above March 1, 2004. This is the highest March 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.60 million, 5 percent above 2005 but 1 percent below 2004. Net placements were 1.53 million. During February, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 355,000, 600-699 pounds were 300,000, 700-799 pounds were 510,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 433,000. Marketings of fed cattle during February totaled 1.61 million, 1 percent below 2005 and 5 percent below 2004. This is the lowest fed cattle marketings for the month of February since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 73,000 during February, 5 percent below 2005 but 6 percent above 2004. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, March 1, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2006 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Feb 1 1/ : 11,138 11,342 12,110 109 107 Placed on Feed During Feb : 1,612 1,523 1,598 99 105 Fed Cattle Marketed During Feb : 1,694 1,634 1,612 95 99 Other Disappearance During Feb 2/ : 69 77 73 106 95 On Feed Mar 1 1/ : 10,987 11,154 12,023 109 108 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, February 1, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2006 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Jan 1 1/ : 11,253 11,299 11,804 105 104 Placed on Feed During Jan : 1,754 1,888 2,199 125 116 Fed Cattle Marketed During Jan : 1,775 1,772 1,810 102 102 Other Disappearance During Jan 2/ : 94 73 83 88 114 On Feed Feb 1 1/ : 11,138 11,342 12,110 109 107 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Mar 1, 2006 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Mar 1, 2005 : Feb 1, 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Feb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 324 346 351 108 101 CA : 515 550 550 107 100 CO : 1,040 1,110 1,090 105 98 ID : 250 265 255 102 96 IA : 465 520 520 112 100 KS : 2,370 2,580 2,610 110 101 NE : 2,320 2,490 2,450 106 98 NM : 125 146 143 114 98 OK : 340 375 365 107 97 SD : 210 210 210 100 100 TX : 2,690 3,030 3,010 112 99 WA : 185 153 154 83 101 : Oth Sts: 320 335 315 98 94 : US : 11,154 12,110 12,023 108 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Feb 2006 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Feb 2005 : Jan 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Jan -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent --- : AZ : 23 39 31 135 79 CA : 49 71 63 129 89 CO : 175 225 150 86 67 ID : 33 46 32 97 70 IA : 57 81 60 105 74 KS : 360 570 410 114 72 NE : 315 425 330 105 78 NM : 13 18 13 100 72 OK : 48 65 49 102 75 SD : 32 38 33 103 87 TX : 340 540 360 106 67 WA : 32 33 25 78 76 : Oth Sts: 46 48 42 91 88 : US : 1,523 2,199 1,598 105 73 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During February :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 15 20 45 30 70 55 45 45 175 150 KS : 50 60 75 85 125 145 110 120 360 410 NE : 42 55 63 60 111 105 99 110 315 330 TX : 70 110 75 70 135 120 60 60 340 360 : Oth Sts : 100 110 50 55 85 85 98 98 333 348 : US : 277 355 308 300 526 510 412 433 1,523 1,598 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During January :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 25 35 45 45 70 85 35 60 175 225 KS : 65 95 135 125 170 220 105 130 475 570 NE : 50 50 93 80 153 150 129 145 425 425 TX : 120 210 110 115 145 150 50 65 425 540 : Oth Sts : 120 140 75 82 93 97 100 120 388 439 : US : 380 530 458 447 631 702 419 520 1,888 2,199 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Feb 2006 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Feb 2005 : Jan 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Jan -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 24 26 24 100 92 CA : 54 62 56 104 90 CO : 185 185 165 89 89 ID : 52 51 38 73 75 IA : 55 69 58 105 84 KS : 390 465 360 92 77 NE : 330 355 360 109 101 NM : 14 13 14 100 108 OK : 56 57 56 100 98 SD : 26 32 29 112 91 TX : 360 420 370 103 88 WA : 35 31 22 63 71 : Oth Sts: 53 44 60 113 136 : US : 1,634 1,810 1,612 99 89 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Feb 2006 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Feb 2005 : Jan 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Jan -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 3 1 2 67 200 CA : 5 9 7 140 78 CO : 10 10 5 50 50 ID : 1 5 4 400 80 IA : 2 2 2 100 100 KS : 20 25 20 100 80 NE : 15 10 10 67 100 NM : 3 2 2 67 100 OK : 2 3 3 150 100 SD : 1 1 4 400 400 TX : 10 10 10 100 100 WA : 2 1 2 100 200 : Oth Sts: 3 4 2 67 50 : US : 77 83 73 95 88 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 10 years is .1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 12.0 million head by more than .1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed .2 percent. The following table also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 7,000 head, ranging from 0 to 25,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been below the final estimate 5 times, and above the final estimate 0 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of U.S. March 1 Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.1 0.2 23.4 7 0 25 0 5 : Placements : 1.1 2.0 32.0 11 0 42 1 5 : Marketings : 0.9 1.6 25.1 9 0 40 0 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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