Mt An 2-1 (9-08) Cattle on Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 19, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Jason Hardegree at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 3 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.0 million head on September 1, 2008. The inventory was 3 percent below September 1, 2007 and 9 percent below September 1, 2006. Placements in feedlots during August totaled 2.06 million, 3 percent below 2007 and 10 percent below 2006. Net placements were 2.01 million head. This is the second lowest placements for the month of August since the series began in 1996. During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 365,000, 600-699 pounds were 410,000, 700-799 pounds were 566,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 720,000. Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.88 million, 9 percent below 2007 and 9 percent below 2006. This is the lowest fed cattle marketings for the month of August since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 49,000 during August, 2 percent below 2007 and 17 percent below 2006. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, September 1, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2008 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ----- Percent : On Feed Aug 1 1/ : 10,822 10,299 9,869 91 96 Placed on Feed During Aug : 2,290 2,119 2,061 90 97 Fed Cattle Marketed During Aug : 2,067 2,066 1,884 91 91 Other Disappearance During Aug 2/ : 59 50 49 83 98 On Feed Sep 1 : 10,986 10,302 9,997 91 97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, August 1, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2008 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Jul 1 1/ : 10,872 10,737 10,295 95 96 Placed on Feed During Jul : 1,958 1,622 *1,666 85 103 Fed Cattle Marketed During Jul : 1,950 1,999 *2,047 105 102 Other Disappearance During Jul 2/ : 58 61 45 78 74 On Feed Aug 1 1/ : 10,822 10,299 9,869 91 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Sep 1, 2008 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Sep 1, 2007 : Aug 1, 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Aug -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 348 357 362 104 101 CA : 530 515 505 95 98 CO : 850 750 770 91 103 ID : 205 180 180 88 100 IA : 490 475 470 96 99 KS : 2,140 2,010 2,090 98 104 NE : 1,930 1,920 1,960 102 102 NM : 131 164 167 127 102 OK : 310 290 305 98 105 SD : 175 170 165 94 97 TX : 2,740 2,590 2,580 94 100 WA : 148 133 138 93 104 : Oth Sts: 305 315 305 100 97 : US : 10,302 9,869 9,997 97 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Aug 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Aug 2007 : Jul 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Jul -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 36 37 33 92 89 CA : 54 45 37 69 82 CO : 170 *110 190 112 173 ID : 48 29 45 94 155 IA : 71 51 72 101 141 KS : 520 440 520 100 118 NE : 465 320 445 96 139 NM : 22 32 27 123 84 OK : 75 46 70 93 152 SD : 37 21 28 76 133 TX : 520 460 510 98 111 WA : 35 32 36 103 113 : Oth Sts: 66 43 48 73 112 : US : 2,119 *1,666 2,061 97 124 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During August :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 25 15 30 20 40 50 75 105 170 190 KS : 100 65 120 105 160 190 140 160 520 520 NE : 75 60 70 60 115 105 205 220 465 445 TX : 160 125 160 170 140 140 60 75 520 510 : Oth Sts : 130 100 60 55 94 81 160 160 444 396 : US : 490 365 440 410 549 566 640 720 2,119 2,061 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During July :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 15 15 20 20 35 *35 45 40 115 *110 KS : 75 70 90 90 140 155 125 125 430 440 NE : 55 40 60 50 90 90 145 140 350 320 TX : 110 130 100 110 115 130 65 90 390 460 : Oth Sts : 105 105 42 50 65 71 125 110 337 336 : US : 360 360 312 320 445 *481 505 505 1,622 *1,666 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Aug 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Aug 2007 : Jul 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Jul -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 28 35 27 96 77 CA : 62 48 45 73 94 CO : 185 *175 165 89 94 ID : 47 48 44 94 92 IA : 80 75 75 94 100 KS : 465 500 430 92 86 NE : 435 440 395 91 90 NM : 19 21 23 121 110 OK : 69 55 54 78 98 SD : 36 35 32 89 91 TX : 550 520 510 93 98 WA : 30 38 30 100 79 : Oth Sts: 60 57 54 90 95 : US : 2,066 *2,047 1,884 91 92 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Aug 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Aug 2007 : Jul 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Jul -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 1 1 1 100 100 CA : 2 2 2 100 100 CO : 5 5 5 100 100 ID : 1 1 1 100 100 IA : 1 1 2 200 200 KS : 15 10 10 67 100 NE : 10 10 10 100 100 NM : 1 1 1 100 100 OK : 1 1 1 100 100 SD : 1 1 1 100 100 TX : 10 10 10 100 100 WA : 1 1 1 100 100 : Oth Sts: 1 1 4 400 400 : US : 50 45 49 98 109 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is less than 0.1 percent (0.04). This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.0 million head by more than 0.04 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. The following table also shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 2,000 head, ranging from 0 to 18,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has not been above the final estimate, but has been below the final estimate 4 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Months Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.0 0.1 10.0 2 0 18 0 4 : Placements : 0.2 0.4 8.2 3 0 10 6 6 : Marketings : 0.2 0.4 7.5 2 0 10 7 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch..............................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section..............................(202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products................................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices.........................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed...................(202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter.........................(515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats...........................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows................(202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs................................(202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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USDA Data Users’ Meeting October 20, 2008 Doubletree Hotel Chicago O’Hare Airport-Rosemont Rosemont, Illinois (847) 292-9100 The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing an open forum for data users. The purpose will be to provide updates on pending changes in the various statistical and information programs and seek comments and input from data users. Other USDA agencies to be represented will include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board. The Foreign Trade Division from the Census Bureau will also be included in the meeting. For registration details or additional information for the Data Users’ Meeting, see the NASS homepage at www.nass.usda.gov/forum/ or contact Marjorie Taylor (NASS) at (202) 690-8141 or at marjorie_taylor@nass.usda.gov. This Data Users’ Meeting precedes an Industry Outlook meeting that will be held at the same location on October 21, 2008. The Outlook meeting brings together analysts from various commodity sectors to discuss the outlook situation. For registration details or additional information for the Industry Outlook Meeting see the Livestock and Marketing Information Center (LMIC) homepage at www.lmic.info or contact Jim Robb at (720) 544-2941 or at robb@lmic.info.