Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released September 21, 2018, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Special Note The December 2018 Cattle on Feed report will be released on December 20, 2018 at 3:00 P.M. EST at www.nass.usda.gov. Please contact the Livestock Branch at (202) 720-3570 or email at hq_sd_lb@nass.usda.gov with any questions or concerns. United States Cattle on Feed Up 6 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on September 1, 2018. The inventory was 6 percent above September 1, 2017. This is the highest September 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in feedlots during August totaled 2.07 million head, 7 percent above 2017. Net placements were 2.02 million head. During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 430,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 335,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 460,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 475,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 240,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 130,000 head. Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.98 million head, slightly above 2017. Other disappearance totaled 55,000 head during August, 12 percent above 2017. Cattle on Feed Inventory, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: September 1, 2017 and 2018 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2017 : 2018 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed August 1 .......................: 10,604 11,093 105 Placed on feed during August ...........: 1,928 2,070 107 Fed cattle marketed during August ......: 1,979 1,983 100 Other disappearance during August ......: 49 55 112 On feed September 1 ....................: 10,504 11,125 106 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed Inventory, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: August 1, 2017 and 2018 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2017 : 2018 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed July 1 .........................: 10,821 11,287 104 Placed on feed during July .............: 1,615 1,742 108 Fed cattle marketed during July ........: 1,784 1,873 105 Other disappearance during July ........: 48 63 131 On feed August 1 .......................: 10,604 11,093 105 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed Inventory on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2017 and 2018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : September 1, 2018 : : :-------------------------------------------- State :September 1, 2017: August 1, 2018 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- 1,000 head -------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 244 298 295 121 99 California .......: 420 525 525 125 100 Colorado .........: 860 890 900 105 101 Idaho ............: 240 245 255 106 104 Iowa .............: 640 700 680 106 97 Kansas ...........: 2,220 2,230 2,310 104 104 Minnesota ........: 120 130 125 104 96 Nebraska .........: 2,150 2,330 2,330 108 100 Oklahoma .........: 315 315 320 102 102 South Dakota .....: 215 200 200 93 100 Texas ............: 2,590 2,720 2,680 103 99 Washington .......: 200 220 210 105 95 : Other States .....: 290 290 295 102 102 : United States ....: 10,504 11,093 11,125 106 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2017 and 2018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During August 2018 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : August 2017 : July 2018 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 20 23 20 100 87 California .......: 39 52 54 138 104 Colorado .........: 175 140 205 117 146 Idaho ............: 44 44 57 130 130 Iowa .............: 92 66 82 89 124 Kansas ...........: 495 465 520 105 112 Minnesota ........: 20 17 23 115 135 Nebraska .........: 470 400 480 102 120 Oklahoma .........: 65 45 65 100 144 South Dakota .....: 45 26 49 109 188 Texas ............: 385 385 415 108 108 Washington .......: 33 31 35 106 113 : Other States .....: 45 48 65 144 135 : United States ....: 1,928 1,742 2,070 107 119 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots and Month - States and United States: 2017 and 2018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During August 2017 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs : 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800-899 lbs : 900+ lbs1/ : 900-999 lbs : 1,000+ lbs : Total --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head 1,000 head 1,000 head 1,000 head 1,000 head 1,000 head 1,000 head : Colorado ......: 25 20 30 50 50 (D) (D) 175 Kansas ........: 70 95 135 120 75 (D) (D) 495 Nebraska ......: 40 40 90 140 160 (D) (D) 470 Texas .........: 135 85 90 60 15 (D) (D) 385 : Other States ..: 90 45 73 115 80 (D) (D) 403 : United States .: 360 285 418 485 (X) 270 110 1,928 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During July 2018 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs : 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800-899 lbs : 900+ lbs 1/ : 900-999 lbs : 1,000+ lbs : Total --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head 1,000 head 1,000 head 1,000 head 1,000 head 1,000 head 1,000 head : Colorado ......: 30 20 30 30 30 (D) (D) 140 Kansas ........: 60 95 155 105 50 (D) (D) 465 Nebraska ......: 45 45 90 120 100 (D) (D) 400 Texas .........: 165 95 70 40 15 (D) (D) 385 : Other States ..: 110 35 70 72 65 (D) (D) 352 : United States .: 410 290 415 367 (X) 175 85 1,742 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During August 2018 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs : 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800-899 lbs : 900+ lbs 1/ : 900-999 lbs : 1,000+ lbs : Total --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head 1,000 head 1,000 head 1,000 head 1,000 head 1,000 head 1,000 head : Colorado ......: 35 25 40 50 55 (D) (D) 205 Kansas ........: 70 115 150 120 65 (D) (D) 520 Nebraska ......: 50 45 90 145 150 (D) (D) 480 Texas .........: 165 100 90 50 10 (D) (D) 415 : Other States ..: 110 50 90 110 90 (D) (D) 450 : United States .: 430 335 460 475 (X) 240 130 2,070 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. (X) Not applicable. 1/ The 900 pounds and greater weight group is the sum of 900-999 pounds and 1,000 pounds and greater weight groups. Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2017 and 2018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During August 2018 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : August 2017 : July 2018 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 19 21 22 116 105 California .......: 46 53 50 109 94 Colorado .........: 190 170 190 100 112 Idaho ............: 52 38 46 88 121 Iowa .............: 101 74 100 99 135 Kansas ...........: 445 465 430 97 92 Minnesota ........: 29 21 27 93 129 Nebraska .........: 470 460 470 100 102 Oklahoma .........: 64 43 59 92 137 South Dakota .....: 49 37 48 98 130 Texas ............: 435 390 440 101 113 Washington .......: 36 40 44 122 110 : Other States .....: 43 61 57 133 93 : United States ....: 1,979 1,873 1,983 100 106 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2017 and 2018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During August 2018 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : August 2017 : July 2018 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 1 1 100 100 California .......: 3 4 4 133 100 Colorado .........: 5 10 5 100 50 Idaho ............: 2 1 1 50 100 Iowa .............: 1 2 2 200 100 Kansas ...........: 10 10 10 100 100 Minnesota ........: 1 1 1 100 100 Nebraska .........: 10 10 10 100 100 Oklahoma .........: 1 2 1 100 50 South Dakota .....: 1 4 1 100 25 Texas ............: 10 15 15 150 100 Washington .......: 2 1 1 50 100 : Other States .....: 2 2 3 150 150 : United States ....: 49 63 55 112 87 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are steers and heifers being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are steers and heifers put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are steers and heifers shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by Regional Field Offices. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.1 million head by more than 0.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 1,000 head, ranging from 0 to 15,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 1 time and has been below the latest estimate 2 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent ------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ---- : Number on feed ...............: 0.0 0.1 1 0 15 2 1 : Placements ...................: 0.2 0.4 2 0 15 2 2 : Marketings ...................: 0.1 0.2 0 0 10 0 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 690-8632 Holly Brenize - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-0585 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 720-4448 Heidi Gleich - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ........ (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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