Mt An 2-1 (10-06) Cattle On Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 20, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Mike Miller at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 9 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.4 million head on October 1, 2006. The inventory was 9 percent above October 1, 2005 and 8 percent above October 1, 2004. This is the highest October 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. The inventory included 7.20 million steers and steer calves, up 5 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 63 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.12 million head, up 16 percent from 2005. Placements in feedlots during September totaled 2.23 million, 5 percent below 2005 and 6 percent below 2004. Net placements were 2.16 million head. During September, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 725,000, 600-699 pounds were 412,000, 700-799 pounds were 450,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 645,000. Marketings of fed cattle during September totaled 1.77 million, 3 percent below 2005 and 2 percent below 2004. This is the second lowest fed cattle marketings for the month of September since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 68,000 during September, 19 percent above 2005 and 11 percent above 2004. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, October 1, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2006 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Sep 1 1/ : 9,988 10,000 10,986 110 110 Placed on Feed During Sep : 2,375 2,355 2,232 94 95 Fed Cattle Marketed During Sep : 1,800 1,816 1,765 98 97 Other Disappearance During Sep 2/ : 61 57 68 111 119 On Feed Oct 1 1/ : 10,502 10,482 11,385 108 109 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, September 1, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2006 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Aug 1 1/ : 9,868 10,093 10,822 110 107 Placed on Feed During Aug : 2,102 1,993 *2,295 109 115 Fed Cattle Marketed During Aug : 1,926 2,033 *2,072 108 102 Other Disappearance During Aug 2/ : 56 53 59 105 111 On Feed Sep 1 1/ : 9,988 10,000 10,986 110 110 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed by Class, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, October 1, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2006 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ----- Percent : Class on Feed Oct 1 : Steers and Steer Calves : 6,468 6,872 7,197 111 105 Heifers and Heifer Calves : 3,974 3,553 4,122 104 116 Cows and Bulls : 60 57 66 110 116 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Oct 1, 2006 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Oct 1, 2005 : Sep 1, 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Sep -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 318 336 336 106 100 CA : 535 520 525 98 101 CO : 900 960 1,060 118 110 ID : 270 235 265 98 113 IA : 410 455 460 112 101 KS : 2,250 2,390 2,450 109 103 NE : 1,940 2,050 2,220 114 108 NM : 136 142 143 105 101 OK : 335 345 355 106 103 SD : 130 155 170 131 110 TX : 2,830 2,960 2,930 104 99 WA : 153 158 171 112 108 : Oth Sts: 275 280 300 109 107 : US : 10,482 10,986 11,385 109 104 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Sep 2006 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Sep 2005 : Aug 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Aug -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 29 30 28 97 93 CA : 68 66 72 106 109 CO : 280 *205 245 88 120 ID : 69 55 72 104 131 IA : 90 80 81 90 101 KS : 510 590 500 98 85 NE : 500 470 500 100 106 NM : 26 26 21 81 81 OK : 69 77 71 103 92 SD : 40 30 50 125 167 TX : 550 570 495 90 87 WA : 40 35 37 93 106 : Oth Sts: 84 61 60 71 98 : US : 2,355 *2,295 2,232 95 97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During September :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 30 50 45 35 70 50 135 110 280 245 KS : 120 185 120 105 130 100 140 110 510 500 NE : 85 105 90 70 120 120 205 205 500 500 TX : 175 230 185 135 130 85 60 45 550 495 : Oth Sts : 155 155 65 67 100 95 195 175 515 492 : US : 565 725 505 412 550 450 735 645 2,355 2,232 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During August :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 20 50 25 *25 40 50 70 80 155 *205 KS : 85 140 105 120 165 185 165 145 520 590 NE : 43 80 65 75 112 115 195 200 415 470 TX : 140 280 130 140 135 95 75 55 480 570 : Oth Sts : 130 130 60 70 88 90 145 170 423 460 : US : 418 680 385 *430 540 535 650 650 1,993 *2,295 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Sep 2006 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Sep 2005 : Aug 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Aug -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 24 31 26 108 84 CA : 57 59 64 112 108 CO : 145 *180 140 97 78 ID : 48 44 41 85 93 IA : 74 69 73 99 106 KS : 455 540 420 92 78 NE : 320 360 320 100 89 NM : 22 26 16 73 62 OK : 53 76 59 111 78 SD : 40 37 34 85 92 TX : 510 570 510 100 89 WA : 25 30 23 92 77 : Oth Sts: 43 50 39 91 78 : US : 1,816 *2,072 1,765 97 85 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Sep 2006 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Sep 2005 : Aug 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Aug -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 1 2 2 200 100 CA : 6 2 3 50 150 CO : 5 5 5 100 100 ID : 1 1 1 100 100 IA : 1 1 3 300 300 KS : 15 20 20 133 100 NE : 10 10 10 100 100 NM : 3 2 4 133 200 OK : 1 1 2 200 200 SD : 2 3 1 50 33 TX : 10 10 15 150 150 WA : 1 1 1 100 100 : Oth Sts: 1 1 1 100 100 : US : 57 59 68 119 115 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed by Class, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Quarter, State, and United States, 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Steers & Steer Calves :Heifers & Heifer Calves: Cows and Bulls :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Oct 1, :Jul 1, :Oct 1, :Oct 1, :Jul 1, :Oct 1, :Oct 1, :Jul 1, :Oct 1, : 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AZ : 316 341 334 2 3 2 0 0 0 CA : 505 487 480 30 40 45 0 3 0 CO : 585 650 730 310 320 325 5 10 5 ID : 166 149 172 101 79 92 3 2 1 IA : 280 320 310 129 139 149 1 1 1 KS : 1,330 1,300 1,280 900 970 1,150 20 10 20 NE : 1,140 1,240 1,250 790 740 950 10 10 20 NM : 76 84 82 60 56 61 0 0 0 OK : 235 240 245 100 100 110 0 0 0 SD : 64 85 82 56 72 74 10 23 14 TX : 1,880 1,900 1,900 947 1,075 1,027 3 5 3 WA : 90 81 97 62 66 73 1 1 1 : Oth Sts : 205 215 235 66 50 64 4 5 1 : US : 6,872 7,092 7,197 3,553 3,710 4,122 57 70 66 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 10 years is .2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.4 million head by more than .2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed .3 percent. The following table also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 10,000 head, ranging from 0 to 36,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been below the final estimate 5 times, and above the final estimate 0 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of U.S. October 1 Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.2 0.3 34.6 10 0 36 0 5 : Placements : 0.2 0.4 8.6 3 0 11 0 5 : Marketings : 0.2 0.4 7.1 2 0 10 0 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch(202) 720-3570 William Weaver, Head, Livestock Section (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs(202) 720-3106 Shawn Clark - Dairy Products(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed(202) 720-3040 Katy Paulsen - Livestock Slaughter(515) 284-4340 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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