Mt An 2-1 (11-09) Cattle on Feed Washington, D.C. Released November 20, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Jason Hardegree at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on November 1, 2009. The inventory was 1 percent above November 1, 2008. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.47 million, 1 percent above 2008. Net placements were 2.42 million head. During October, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 615,000, 600-699 pounds were 645,000, 700-799 pounds were 579,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 635,000. Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.76 million, 3 percent below 2008. Other disappearance totaled 59,000 during October, 12 percent below 2008. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, November 1, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2008 : 2009 :Previous Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head ---- Percent : On Feed Oct 1 : 10,415 10,474 101 Placed on Feed During Oct : 2,438 2,474 101 Fed Cattle Marketed During Oct : 1,814 1,755 97 Other Disappearance During Oct : 67 59 88 On Feed Nov 1 : 10,972 11,134 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, October 1, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2008 : 2009 :Previous Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head ---- Percent : On Feed Sep 1 : 9,997 9,879 99 Placed on Feed During Sep : 2,281 2,388 105 Fed Cattle Marketed During Sep : 1,812 1,746 96 Other Disappearance During Sep : 51 47 92 On Feed Oct 1 : 10,415 10,474 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Nov 1, 2009 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Nov 1, 2008 : Oct 1, 2009 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :Previous Year :Previous Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- 1,000 Head ----------- ----- Percent ---- : AZ : 362 275 279 77 101 CA : 500 465 470 94 101 CO : 960 960 1,040 108 108 ID : 210 205 210 100 102 IA : 485 520 540 111 104 KS : 2,230 2,220 2,330 104 105 NE : 2,310 2,170 2,400 104 111 NM : 172 D D D D OK : 320 355 375 117 106 SD : 200 195 205 103 105 TX : 2,710 2,600 2,730 101 105 WA : 163 147 155 95 105 : Oth Sts1/: 350 362 400 X 110 : US : 10,972 10,474 11,134 101 106 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. (X) Comparison to 2008 is not applicable. 1/ Includes unpublished New Mexico totals for 2009. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Oct 2009 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Oct 2008 : Sep 2009 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :Previous Year :Previous Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ----- Percent ---- : AZ : 31 27 29 94 107 CA : 54 56 57 106 102 CO : 245 260 245 100 94 ID : 55 53 50 91 94 IA : 104 105 123 118 117 KS : 450 510 465 103 91 NE : 590 550 620 105 113 NM : 17 D D D D OK : 75 80 83 111 104 SD : 70 52 65 93 125 TX : 630 570 610 97 107 WA : 38 35 38 100 109 : Oth Sts1/: 79 90 89 X 99 : US : 2,438 2,388 2,474 101 104 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. (X) Comparison to 2008 is not applicable. 1/ Includes unpublished New Mexico totals for 2009. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During October :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 50 50 70 45 45 60 80 90 245 245 KS : 100 85 120 120 125 150 105 110 450 465 NE : 160 160 160 175 100 95 170 190 590 620 TX : 195 150 160 180 190 180 85 100 630 610 : Oth Sts : 195 170 105 125 83 94 140 145 523 534 : US : 700 615 615 645 543 579 580 635 2,438 2,474 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During September :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 20 20 30 25 45 65 160 150 255 260 KS : 80 85 100 115 155 155 150 155 485 510 NE : 80 65 70 90 120 120 280 275 550 550 TX : 145 175 150 160 130 160 85 75 510 570 : Oth Sts : 120 145 65 60 91 93 205 200 481 498 : US : 445 490 415 450 541 593 880 855 2,281 2,388 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Oct 2009 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Oct 2008 : Sep 2009 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :Previous Year :Previous Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ----- Percent ---- : AZ : 28 26 24 86 92 CA : 57 44 50 88 114 CO : 150 155 160 107 103 ID : 39 42 44 113 105 IA : 93 94 100 108 106 KS : 360 330 340 94 103 NE : 375 395 380 101 96 NM : 17 D D D D OK : 68 48 60 88 125 SD : 43 41 54 126 132 TX : 495 485 465 94 96 WA : 31 27 29 94 107 : Oth Sts1/: 58 59 49 X 83 : US : 1,814 1,746 1,755 97 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. (X) Comparison to 2008 is not applicable. 1/ Includes unpublished New Mexico totals for 2009. Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Oct 2009 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Oct 2008 : Sep 2009 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :Previous Year :Previous Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------- 1,000 Head --------- ----- Percent ---- : AZ : 1 1 1 100 100 CA : 2 2 2 100 100 CO : 5 5 5 100 100 ID : 1 1 1 100 100 IA : 1 1 3 300 300 KS : 20 10 15 75 150 NE : 15 5 10 67 200 NM : 1 D D D D OK : 2 2 3 150 150 SD : 2 1 1 50 100 TX : 15 15 15 100 100 WA : 1 1 1 100 100 : Oth Sts1/: 1 3 2 X 67 : US : 67 47 59 88 126 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. (X) Comparison to 2008 is not applicable. 1/ Includes unpublished New Mexico totals for 2009. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is less than 0.1 percent (0.04). This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.1 million head by more than 0.04 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. The following table also shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 2,000 head, ranging from 0 to 18,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the final estimate 3 times and has been below the final estimate 5 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Months Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.0 0.1 11.1 2 0 18 3 5 : Placements : 0.2 0.3 7.4 2 0 9 1 7 : Marketings : 0.2 0.3 5.3 2 0 7 3 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch......................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section......................(202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products........................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices.................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed...........(202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter............(515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats...................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows........(202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs........................(202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge. For free access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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