Mt An 2-1 (5-07) Cattle On Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released May 18, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Mike Miller at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 2 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.3 million head on May 1, 2007. The inventory was 2 percent below May 1, 2006 but 6 percent above May 1, 2005. This is the second highest May 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.57 million, 3 percent below 2006 and 5 percent below 2005. Net placements were 1.47 million. During April, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 375,000, 600-699 pounds were 263,000, 700-799 pounds were 430,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 505,000. Marketings of fed cattle during April totaled 1.82 million, 2 percent above 2006 and 1 percent above 2005. Other disappearance totaled 99,000 during April, 14 percent above 2006 and 9 percent above 2005. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, May 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Apr 1 1/ : 10,873 11,812 11,644 107 99 Placed on Feed During Apr : 1,660 1,619 1,573 95 97 Fed Cattle Marketed During Apr : 1,801 1,785 1,821 101 102 Other Disappearance During Apr 2/ : 91 87 99 109 114 On Feed May 1 1/ : 10,641 11,559 11,297 106 98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, April 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Mar 1 1/ : 11,154 12,023 11,599 104 96 Placed on Feed During Mar : 1,750 1,837 *1,960 112 107 Fed Cattle Marketed During Mar : 1,963 1,958 *1,843 94 94 Other Disappearance During Mar 2/ : 68 90 72 106 80 On Feed Apr 1 1/ : 10,873 11,812 11,644 107 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : May 1, 2007 : : :------------------------------------------ State : May 1, 2006 : Apr 1, 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Apr -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 345 340 340 99 100 CA : 530 530 550 104 104 CO : 1,060 1,020 1,020 96 100 ID : 245 245 235 96 96 IA : 495 530 530 107 100 KS : 2,530 2,480 2,350 93 95 NE : 2,320 2,480 2,420 104 98 NM : 132 131 118 89 90 OK : 340 350 335 99 96 SD : 200 230 230 115 100 TX : 2,910 2,800 2,680 92 96 WA : 152 163 154 101 94 : Oth Sts: 300 345 335 112 97 : US : 11,559 11,644 11,297 98 97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Apr 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Apr 2006 : Mar 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Mar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 27 46 31 115 67 CA : 60 68 85 142 125 CO : 130 *160 155 119 97 ID : 31 38 35 113 92 IA : 64 72 61 95 85 KS : 375 510 355 95 70 NE : 320 350 290 91 83 NM : 18 19 12 67 63 OK : 48 68 54 113 79 SD : 28 40 36 129 90 TX : 455 520 380 84 73 WA : 23 26 22 96 85 : Oth Sts: 40 43 57 143 133 : US : 1,619 *1,960 1,573 97 80 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During April :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 40 30 20 30 35 40 35 55 130 155 KS : 60 60 65 65 115 110 135 120 375 355 NE : 60 50 45 40 85 80 130 120 320 290 TX : 120 105 95 75 135 110 105 90 455 380 : Oth Sts : 105 130 40 53 74 90 120 120 339 393 : US : 385 375 265 263 444 430 525 505 1,619 1,573 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During March :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 25 *15 30 30 60 50 40 65 155 *160 KS : 70 70 80 115 165 170 165 155 480 510 NE : 50 40 50 50 90 110 145 150 335 350 TX : 120 90 120 120 165 200 80 110 485 520 : Oth Sts : 115 130 62 60 85 110 120 120 382 420 : US : 380 *345 342 375 565 640 550 600 1,837 *1,960 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Apr 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Apr 2006 : Mar 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Mar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 24 33 30 125 91 CA : 60 65 61 102 94 CO : 130 *140 135 104 96 ID : 34 42 40 118 95 IA : 66 70 59 89 84 KS : 410 430 445 109 103 NE : 390 370 340 87 92 NM : 24 17 24 100 141 OK : 66 67 68 103 101 SD : 35 37 34 97 92 TX : 470 495 490 104 99 WA : 22 32 30 136 94 : Oth Sts: 54 45 65 120 144 : US : 1,785 *1,843 1,821 102 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Apr 2007 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Apr 2006 : Mar 2007 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2006 : Mar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 9 2 1 11 50 CA : 5 3 4 80 133 CO : 10 10 20 200 200 ID : 2 1 5 250 500 IA : 3 2 2 67 100 KS : 25 20 40 160 200 NE : 10 10 10 100 100 NM : 1 1 1 100 100 OK : 2 1 1 50 100 SD : 3 3 2 67 67 TX : 15 15 10 67 67 WA : 1 1 1 100 100 : Oth Sts: 1 3 2 200 67 : US : 87 72 99 114 138 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 10 years is .1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.3 million head by more than .1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed .2 percent. The following table also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 10,000 head, ranging from 0 to 35,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been below the final estimate 7 times, and above the final estimate 1 time. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of U.S. May 1 Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.1 0.2 27.9 10 0 35 1 7 : Placements : 0.6 1.2 18.5 7 0 22 2 5 : Marketings : 0.3 0.6 11.6 5 0 12 2 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section William Weaver, Head, Livestock Section (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs(202) 720-3106 Shawn Clark - Dairy Products(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed(202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter(515) 284-4340 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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