Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released November 18, 2021, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). October Milk Production down 0.3 Percent Milk production in the 24 major States during October totaled 17.7 billion pounds, down 0.3 percent from October 2020. September revised production, at 17.3 billion pounds, was up 0.2 percent from September 2020. The September revision represented a decrease of 37 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 1,990 pounds for October, 6 pounds below October 2020. The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 8.90 million head, 4,000 head more than October 2020, but 15,000 head less than September 2021. October Milk Production in the United States down 0.5 Percent Milk production in the United States during October totaled 18.5 billion pounds, down 0.5 percent from October 2020. Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,970 pounds for October, 6 pounds below October 2020. The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.40 million head, 14,000 head below October 2020, and 14,000 head less than September 2021. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2020-2021 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 : from : : : : : : : 2020 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,378 9,458 5,990 6,003 56,174 56,776 1.1 April-June ......: 9,364 9,502 5,988 6,119 56,070 58,141 3.7 July-September ..: 9,380 9,451 5,908 5,913 55,419 55,880 0.8 October-December : 9,429 5,892 55,557 : Annual ..........: 9,388 23,777 223,220 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 24 Selected States: 2020-2021 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 : from : : : : : : : 2020 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 8,837 8,934 2,034 2,065 17,974 18,446 2.6 February ......: 8,848 8,947 1,926 1,884 17,038 16,858 -1.1 March .........: 8,861 8,961 2,085 2,106 18,474 18,873 2.2 April .........: 8,855 8,985 2,009 2,054 17,787 18,454 3.7 May ...........: 8,838 8,996 2,044 2,107 18,061 18,953 4.9 June ..........: 8,834 8,993 1,984 2,012 17,530 18,091 3.2 July ..........: 8,854 8,989 2,024 2,033 17,919 18,275 2.0 August ........: 8,857 8,947 2,010 2,004 17,799 17,927 0.7 September .....: 8,877 8,916 1,941 1,935 17,226 17,255 0.2 October .......: 8,897 8,901 1,996 1,990 17,758 17,711 -0.3 November ......: 8,914 1,938 17,274 December ......: 8,923 2,019 18,012 : Annual ........: 8,866 24,008 212,852 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2020-2021 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 : from : : : : : : : 2020 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 9,365 9,445 2,016 2,047 18,877 19,330 2.4 February ......: 9,377 9,458 1,908 1,868 17,895 17,666 -1.3 March .........: 9,391 9,472 2,066 2,088 19,402 19,780 1.9 April .........: 9,377 9,496 1,993 2,036 18,684 19,332 3.5 May ...........: 9,360 9,507 2,027 2,088 18,972 19,855 4.7 June ..........: 9,355 9,503 1,968 1,995 18,414 18,954 2.9 July ..........: 9,372 9,492 2,001 2,013 18,756 19,103 1.9 August ........: 9,374 9,447 1,988 1,984 18,632 18,739 0.6 September .....: 9,395 9,414 1,919 1,916 18,031 18,038 - October .......: 9,414 9,400 1,976 1,970 18,603 18,515 -0.5 November ......: 9,432 1,919 18,103 December ......: 9,442 1,997 18,851 : Annual ........: 9,388 23,777 223,220 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 24 Selected States: October 2020 and 2021 [May not add due to rounding] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 : from : : : : : : : 2020 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .........: 200 195 2,000 1,975 400 385 -3.8 California ......: 1,720 1,720 1,965 1,940 3,380 3,337 -1.3 Colorado ........: 201 199 2,185 2,185 439 435 -0.9 Florida .........: 112 105 1,525 1,550 171 163 -4.7 Georgia .........: 81 82 1,740 1,750 141 144 2.1 Idaho ...........: 645 651 2,100 2,100 1,355 1,367 0.9 Illinois ........: 84 82 1,740 1,735 146 142 -2.7 Indiana .........: 191 186 1,990 1,985 380 369 -2.9 Iowa ............: 219 225 2,065 2,055 452 462 2.2 Kansas ..........: 172 169 1,985 1,975 341 334 -2.1 : Michigan ........: 431 435 2,270 2,240 978 974 -0.4 Minnesota .......: 452 461 1,910 1,925 863 887 2.8 New Mexico ......: 332 298 2,065 2,020 686 602 -12.2 New York ........: 626 628 2,035 2,050 1,274 1,287 1.0 Ohio ............: 256 251 1,850 1,820 474 457 -3.6 Oregon ..........: 125 125 1,750 1,750 219 219 - Pennsylvania ....: 482 475 1,760 1,730 848 822 -3.1 South Dakota ....: 140 161 1,955 1,960 274 316 15.3 Texas ...........: 603 625 2,100 2,105 1,266 1,316 3.9 Utah ............: 95 95 1,950 1,940 185 184 -0.5 : Vermont .........: 120 120 1,765 1,760 212 211 -0.5 Virginia ........: 74 71 1,660 1,650 123 117 -4.9 Washington ......: 279 264 2,035 2,005 568 529 -6.9 Wisconsin .......: 1,257 1,278 2,055 2,075 2,583 2,652 2.7 : 24-State Total ..: 8,897 8,901 1,996 1,990 17,758 17,711 -0.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 24 Selected States: September 2020 and 2021 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 : from : : : : : : : 2020 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 200 196 1,845 1,820 369 357 -3.3 California ....: 1,720 1,720 1,905 1,905 3,277 3,277 - Colorado ......: 200 199 2,145 2,135 429 425 -0.9 Florida .......: 112 105 1,445 1,475 162 155 -4.3 Georgia .......: 80 82 1,650 1,670 132 137 3.8 Idaho .........: 645 651 2,075 2,070 1,338 1,348 0.7 Illinois ......: 84 82 1,645 1,650 138 135 -2.2 Indiana .......: 191 189 1,935 1,900 370 359 -3.0 Iowa ..........: 219 225 2,005 1,995 439 449 2.3 Kansas ........: 171 170 1,920 1,915 328 326 -0.6 : Michigan ......: 430 439 2,220 2,190 955 961 0.6 Minnesota .....: 450 461 1,870 1,870 842 862 2.4 New Mexico ....: 327 300 2,025 1,930 662 579 -12.5 New York ......: 626 628 1,985 2,005 1,243 1,259 1.3 Ohio ..........: 254 254 1,790 1,760 455 447 -1.8 Oregon ........: 125 125 1,705 1,710 213 214 0.5 Pennsylvania ..: 482 475 1,690 1,680 815 798 -2.1 South Dakota ..: 140 161 1,905 1,920 267 309 15.7 Texas .........: 598 625 2,025 1,985 1,211 1,241 2.5 Utah ..........: 94 95 1,910 1,910 180 181 0.6 : Vermont .......: 120 120 1,725 1,725 207 207 - Virginia ......: 74 72 1,575 1,590 117 114 -2.6 Washington ....: 279 264 2,005 1,975 559 521 -6.8 Wisconsin .....: 1,256 1,278 2,005 2,030 2,518 2,594 3.0 : 24-State Total : 8,877 8,916 1,941 1,935 17,226 17,255 0.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies such as Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Dairy Market News. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey. Estimation Procedures: Regional Field Offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 24 State milk production estimates over the past 24 months is 0.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 17.7 billion pounds by more than 0.4 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.7 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 -------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.4 0.7 54 0 150 17 6 : All Milk cows ................: 0.1 0.2 10 0 26 18 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov. Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......... (202) 692-0069 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 690-8632 Ryan Cowen - Cattle, Cattle on Feed .......... (202) 720-3040 Anthony Fischer - Hogs and Pigs .............. (202) 720-3106 Logan Hartley-Sanguinett - Sheep and Goats ... (202) 690-3236 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Suzanne Richards - Dairy Products ............ (202) 720-4448 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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