Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released August 19, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). July Milk Production up 0.1 Percent Milk production in the 24 major States during July totaled 17.5 billion pounds, up 0.1 percent from July 2018. June revised production, at 17.4 billion pounds, was up 0.2 percent from June 2018. The June revision represented an increase of 26 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 1,993 pounds for July, 16 pounds above July 2018. The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 8.77 million head, 60,000 head less than July 2018, and 8,000 head less than June 2019. July Milk Production in the United States up slightly Milk production in the United States during July totaled 18.3 billion pounds, up slightly from July 2018. Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,969 pounds for July, 17 pounds above July 2018. The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.31 million head, 82,000 head less than July 2018, and 9,000 head less than June 2019. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2018-2019 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,435 9,344 5,766 5,827 54,399 54,450 0.1 April-June ......: 9,418 9,327 5,928 5,980 55,831 55,778 -0.1 July-September ..: 9,383 5,752 53,969 October-December : 9,359 5,703 53,376 : Annual ..........: 9,399 23,149 217,575 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 24 Selected States: 2018-2019 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 8,856 8,805 1,973 2,009 17,469 17,685 1.2 February ......: 8,855 8,805 1,817 1,834 16,086 16,148 0.4 March .........: 8,849 8,788 2,033 2,041 17,994 17,940 -0.3 April .........: 8,844 8,788 1,976 1,999 17,475 17,570 0.5 May ...........: 8,848 8,790 2,051 2,064 18,151 18,146 - June ..........: 8,840 8,777 1,961 1,979 17,336 17,374 0.2 July ..........: 8,829 8,769 1,977 1,993 17,454 17,480 0.1 August ........: 8,826 1,968 17,372 September .....: 8,807 1,880 16,561 October .......: 8,807 1,931 17,005 November ......: 8,802 1,876 16,514 December ......: 8,798 1,964 17,282 : Annual ........: 8,830 23,407 206,699 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2018-2019 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 9,438 9,352 1,953 1,989 18,437 18,600 0.9 February ......: 9,436 9,350 1,799 1,816 16,973 16,981 - March .........: 9,430 9,330 2,014 2,022 18,989 18,869 -0.6 April .........: 9,418 9,330 1,955 1,978 18,412 18,458 0.2 May ...........: 9,422 9,333 2,030 2,043 19,131 19,064 -0.4 June ..........: 9,414 9,319 1,943 1,959 18,288 18,256 -0.2 July ..........: 9,392 9,310 1,952 1,969 18,329 18,330 - August ........: 9,389 1,943 18,245 September .....: 9,368 1,857 17,395 October .......: 9,367 1,908 17,873 November ......: 9,358 1,854 17,348 December ......: 9,353 1,941 18,155 : Annual ........: 9,399 23,149 217,575 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 24 Selected States: July 2018 and 2019 [May not add due to rounding] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .........: 206 193 1,895 1,885 390 364 -6.7 California ......: 1,734 1,728 1,900 1,955 3,295 3,378 2.5 Colorado ........: 177 187 2,215 2,220 392 415 5.9 Florida .........: 119 115 1,580 1,615 188 186 -1.1 Georgia .........: 81 82 1,770 1,795 143 147 2.8 Idaho ...........: 610 620 2,175 2,185 1,327 1,355 2.1 Illinois ........: 92 84 1,680 1,705 155 143 -7.7 Indiana .........: 184 175 1,890 1,890 348 331 -4.9 Iowa ............: 220 217 1,995 2,010 439 436 -0.7 Kansas ..........: 159 161 1,970 1,960 313 316 1.0 : Michigan ........: 423 425 2,240 2,245 948 954 0.6 Minnesota .......: 452 447 1,860 1,900 841 849 1.0 New Mexico ......: 328 323 2,140 2,155 702 696 -0.9 New York ........: 622 627 2,065 2,055 1,284 1,288 0.3 Ohio ............: 260 246 1,795 1,785 467 439 -6.0 Oregon ..........: 121 123 1,790 1,800 217 221 1.8 Pennsylvania ....: 520 485 1,730 1,715 900 832 -7.6 South Dakota ....: 121 123 1,900 1,920 230 236 2.6 Texas ...........: 538 565 2,050 2,065 1,103 1,167 5.8 Utah ............: 101 97 2,000 1,990 202 193 -4.5 : Vermont .........: 127 126 1,770 1,810 225 228 1.3 Virginia ........: 83 74 1,610 1,610 134 119 -11.2 Washington ......: 277 278 2,095 2,090 580 581 0.2 Wisconsin .......: 1,274 1,268 2,065 2,055 2,631 2,606 -1.0 : 24-State Total ..: 8,829 8,769 1,977 1,993 17,454 17,480 0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 24 Selected States: June 2018 and 2019 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 206 195 2,005 1,995 413 389 -5.8 California ....: 1,735 1,728 1,905 1,935 3,305 3,344 1.2 Colorado ......: 177 186 2,160 2,165 382 403 5.5 Florida .......: 120 115 1,675 1,730 201 199 -1.0 Georgia .......: 82 82 1,715 1,770 141 145 2.8 Idaho .........: 610 620 2,095 2,115 1,278 1,311 2.6 Illinois ......: 93 84 1,720 1,750 160 147 -8.1 Indiana .......: 184 177 1,885 1,910 347 338 -2.6 Iowa ..........: 220 217 1,975 2,005 435 435 - Kansas ........: 159 162 1,935 1,940 308 314 1.9 : Michigan ......: 423 425 2,240 2,280 948 969 2.2 Minnesota .....: 453 447 1,835 1,885 831 843 1.4 New Mexico ....: 332 322 2,130 2,140 707 689 -2.5 New York ......: 623 627 2,050 2,040 1,277 1,279 0.2 Ohio ..........: 260 246 1,800 1,810 468 445 -4.9 Oregon ........: 121 123 1,750 1,755 212 216 1.9 Pennsylvania ..: 521 490 1,720 1,710 896 838 -6.5 South Dakota ..: 122 123 1,875 1,885 229 232 1.3 Texas .........: 536 565 2,020 2,025 1,083 1,144 5.6 Utah ..........: 101 97 1,975 1,960 199 190 -4.5 : Vermont .......: 127 126 1,785 1,795 227 226 -0.4 Virginia ......: 84 74 1,610 1,640 135 121 -10.4 Washington ....: 277 278 2,050 2,050 568 570 0.4 Wisconsin .....: 1,274 1,268 2,030 2,040 2,586 2,587 - : 24-State Total : 8,840 8,777 1,961 1,979 17,336 17,374 0.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies such as Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Dairy Market News. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey. Estimation Procedures: Regional Field Offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 24 State milk production estimates over the past 18 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 17.5 billion pounds by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 18 months. 24-State data not available prior to 2018] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.1 0.2 19 2 59 13 5 : All Milk cows ................: 0.2 0.3 10 0 31 13 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov. Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 690-8632 Holly Brenize - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-0585 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 720-4448 Heidi Lanouette - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ..... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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