Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released March 19, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). February Milk Production up 0.6 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during February totaled 16.0 billion pounds, up 0.6 percent from February 2018. January revised production, at 17.5 billion pounds, was up 1.3 percent from January 2018. The January revision represented a decrease of 7 million pounds or less than 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,838 pounds for February, 21 pounds above February 2018. This is the highest production per cow for the month of February since the 23 State series began in 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.72 million head, 47,000 head less than February 2018, but unchanged from January 2019. February Milk Production in the United States up 0.2 Percent Milk production in the United States during February totaled 17.0 billion pounds, up 0.2 percent from February 2018. Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,818 pounds for February, 19 pounds above February 2018. The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.36 million head, 77,000 head less than February 2018, but unchanged from January 2019. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2018-2019 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head --- pounds -- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,435 5,766 54,399 April-June ......: 9,418 5,928 55,831 July-September ..: 9,383 5,752 53,969 October-December : 9,359 5,703 53,376 : Annual ..........: 9,399 23,149 217,575 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 23 Selected States: 2018-2019 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 8,771 8,723 1,973 2,009 17,308 17,526 1.3 February ......: 8,770 8,723 1,817 1,838 15,936 16,037 0.6 March .........: 8,764 2,034 17,826 April .........: 8,760 1,977 17,318 May ...........: 8,765 2,053 17,995 June ..........: 8,758 1,963 17,195 July ..........: 8,748 1,979 17,311 August ........: 8,747 1,970 17,233 September .....: 8,727 1,883 16,432 October .......: 8,726 1,933 16,870 November ......: 8,721 1,878 16,374 December ......: 8,717 1,966 17,135 : Annual ........: 8,748 23,426 204,933 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2018-2019 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 9,438 9,359 1,953 1,987 18,437 18,594 0.9 February ......: 9,436 9,359 1,799 1,818 16,973 17,015 0.2 March .........: 9,430 2,014 18,989 April .........: 9,418 1,955 18,412 May ...........: 9,422 2,030 19,131 June ..........: 9,414 1,943 18,288 July ..........: 9,392 1,952 18,329 August ........: 9,389 1,943 18,245 September .....: 9,368 1,857 17,395 October .......: 9,367 1,908 17,873 November ......: 9,358 1,854 17,348 December ......: 9,353 1,941 18,155 : Annual ........: 9,399 23,149 217,575 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: February 2018 and 2019 [May not add due to rounding] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .........: 212 204 1,960 1,970 416 402 -3.4 California ......: 1,738 1,730 1,860 1,870 3,233 3,235 0.1 Colorado ........: 170 182 1,985 2,005 337 365 8.3 Florida .........: 124 116 1,700 1,705 211 198 -6.2 Idaho ...........: 607 615 1,875 1,890 1,138 1,162 2.1 Illinois ........: 93 85 1,670 1,690 155 144 -7.1 Indiana .........: 186 181 1,760 1,770 327 320 -2.1 Iowa ............: 220 220 1,860 1,870 409 411 0.5 Kansas ..........: 156 162 1,820 1,790 284 290 2.1 Michigan ........: 427 424 2,015 2,050 860 869 1.0 : Minnesota .......: 455 450 1,670 1,715 760 772 1.6 New Mexico ......: 334 322 1,975 1,970 660 634 -3.9 New York ........: 625 627 1,805 1,850 1,128 1,160 2.8 Ohio ............: 262 253 1,665 1,655 436 419 -3.9 Oregon ..........: 123 126 1,555 1,625 191 205 7.3 Pennsylvania ....: 525 500 1,630 1,610 856 805 -6.0 South Dakota ....: 119 124 1,700 1,730 202 215 6.4 Texas ...........: 530 550 1,845 1,915 978 1,053 7.7 Utah ............: 99 100 1,755 1,760 174 176 1.1 Vermont .........: 128 126 1,625 1,665 208 210 1.0 : Virginia ........: 87 78 1,570 1,545 137 121 -11.7 Washington ......: 275 278 1,850 1,830 509 509 - Wisconsin .......: 1,275 1,270 1,825 1,860 2,327 2,362 1.5 : 23-State Total ..: 8,770 8,723 1,817 1,838 15,936 16,037 0.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: January 2018 and 2019 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 212 204 2,095 2,095 444 427 -3.8 California ....: 1,738 1,730 2,005 2,030 3,485 3,512 0.8 Colorado ......: 170 180 2,195 2,210 373 398 6.7 Florida .......: 124 116 1,775 1,810 220 210 -4.5 Idaho .........: 605 615 2,055 2,080 1,243 1,279 2.9 Illinois ......: 93 85 1,800 1,825 167 155 -7.2 Indiana .......: 187 181 1,930 1,935 361 350 -3.0 Iowa ..........: 220 220 2,035 2,075 448 457 2.0 Kansas ........: 156 162 1,960 1,975 306 320 4.6 Michigan ......: 428 424 2,190 2,245 937 952 1.6 : Minnesota .....: 455 450 1,835 1,895 835 853 2.2 New Mexico ....: 334 324 2,140 2,130 715 690 -3.5 New York ......: 625 627 1,955 2,015 1,222 1,263 3.4 Ohio ..........: 262 253 1,800 1,795 472 454 -3.8 Oregon ........: 124 126 1,695 1,760 210 222 5.7 Pennsylvania ..: 525 500 1,760 1,745 924 873 -5.5 South Dakota ..: 119 124 1,855 1,925 221 239 8.1 Texas .........: 530 548 1,985 2,060 1,052 1,129 7.3 Utah ..........: 98 100 1,930 1,930 189 193 2.1 Vermont .......: 128 126 1,780 1,825 228 230 0.9 : Virginia ......: 87 78 1,700 1,680 148 131 -11.5 Washington ....: 276 280 2,020 2,045 558 573 2.7 Wisconsin .....: 1,275 1,270 2,000 2,060 2,550 2,616 2.6 : 23-State Total : 8,771 8,723 1,973 2,009 17,308 17,526 1.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies such as Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Dairy Market News. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey. Estimation Procedures: Regional Field Offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk production estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 16.0 billion pounds by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.2 0.3 22 2 67 16 8 : All Milk cows ................: 0.2 0.3 15 2 31 24 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 690-8632 Holly Brenize - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-0585 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 720-4448 Heidi Gleich - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ........ (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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